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Julian Speck

 
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  • Is Overseas Shipholding A Good Investment For Minority Shareholders? [View article]
    You're right! Very few disposed of their shares in good time ...
    Nov 15, 2012. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overseas Shipholding: Rumors Of Its Financial Demise May Not Be Greatly Exaggerated [View article]
    Tragic .. for the whole tanker sector.
    Nov 14, 2012. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Overseas Shipholding A Good Investment For Minority Shareholders? [View article]
    I posted a blog about OSG's corporate bonds, see:
    http://bit.ly/RX1QwP
    Nov 14, 2012. 05:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Overseas Shipholding A Good Investment For Minority Shareholders? [View article]
    Thanks. I found your source at:
    http://bit.ly/T0unBv
    You are not alone ... Insiders have been buying for months, see:
    http://yhoo.it/YHBkf1
    Perhaps the big fund analysts failed to see what everyone failed to see - OSG's financial statements may be unreliable? So more research will probably not have helped you ...
    Selected stocks within the tanker sector certainly have bottomed but OSG is facing exceptional problems.
    Nov 7, 2012. 04:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Overseas Shipholding A Good Investment For Minority Shareholders? [View article]
    Paul,
    I can't verify your information about O.A.M. What's your source?
    O.A.M. was recently reported on this website, see:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    But it's not clear to me ... Is O.A.M. a long/short fund?
    3 million shares certainly moves O.A.M. higher up the food chain, see:
    http://yhoo.it/PTBCyy
    In short, distressed opportunities arise when securities become oversold. So O.A.M. may have spotted an opportunity in OSG, taking a passive investment in their stock?
    OSG's news only get more tragic/difficult, see:
    http://bit.ly/Uv7FjO
    In any event, I'm just a humble private investor. I'm looking for long-term investments that fit my risk-return profile. OSG is currently not for me.
    Julian.
    Nov 6, 2012. 05:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Overseas Shipholding A Good Investment For Minority Shareholders? [View article]
    A useful summary of analyst opinions can be found at:
    http://bit.ly/RyqjIO
    Clarksons Capital's opinion sums it up for me ...
    And Dahlam Rose is asking the right question for me.
    At some point (after restructuring/asset sales), OSG will be undervalued. I'll be back in a few weeks to consider this.
    Nov 2, 2012. 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Overseas Shipholding A Good Investment For Minority Shareholders? [View article]
    Tony, good questions ... The conversation about OSG needs on to move investment scenarios after it emerges from Chapter 11. I'm currently working on ex-post valuations, based on my two solutions: (1) sell selected assets; or (2) sell US-flag business. In other words, I would buy OSG's shares after Chapter 11 if I can see value. I don't intend to buy before restructuring. On the other hand ... 5 cents could easily double to 10 cents intraday? But we're not there yet. Julian.
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overseas Shipholding Group: Why Now Is a Great Time to Buy [View article]
    I've written a summary article of recent developments, see:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    What next for OSG?
    The question now is: When do I buy OSG?
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overseas Shipholding: Rumors Of Its Financial Demise May Not Be Greatly Exaggerated [View article]
    What next for OSG?
    I've written a summary article of recent developments, see:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    The question now is: When do I buy OSG?
    Nov 1, 2012. 05:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanker Segment: One Year On And Capital Product Partners May Be My Value Stock [View article]
    CPLP announced that before the NASDAQ market opens on Wednesday, October 31, 2012, it will release financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2012, see:
    http://bit.ly/S7LLU2
    Oct 29, 2012. 05:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanker Segment: One Year On And Capital Product Partners May Be My Value Stock [View article]
    I've been watching OSG closely in the last few days and I think the saga deserves an article here, in the next few days ... It's a tragedy - I know people lost jobs in the UK and elsewhere - reflecting the hubris in the tanker sector over several years. My instincts tell me to avoid buying OSG at this time.
    Oct 22, 2012. 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect Teekay Tankers To Have Good News In 2012 [View article]
    I will need some time to review your latest information!
    My DCF model is very robust (!) such that I avoid looking past one decimal point. Like you, I also don't back-fit ... I consider any gap between with my DCF Base Case and the current share price to be a combination of model error (positive or negative) and market sentiment (positive or negative).
    The tanker market reports that I can easily get access to are also not that granular, ie. down to the level of vessel-type ...
    But have a look at the various past presentations on the Capital Link Shipping Forum site: http://bit.ly/T3l1Cx
    Specifically, go to Events (2011) > 4th Annual International Shipping & Marine Services Forum > View Details > Webcast Archive.
    Complete the personal details form to gain immediate access ...
    Then download the Braemar Seascope presentation (by Kate Fisher) in PPT/PDF, plus the Audio Webcast.
    (The Audio Webcast only works for me using Internet Explorer).
    Oct 19, 2012. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect Teekay Tankers To Have Good News In 2012 [View article]
    I've corrected my earnings simulator for the two mortgaged VLs - simply assuming zero operating revenue for 2013. (I didn't actually include the 50% JV NB VLCC for 2013 and it's still excluded). My results are now:
    BC (TCEavg+TCactual) = $167m;
    RtM (TCEavg+TCavg) = $160m (4% less than BC);
    O (TCEmin+TCmin) = $121m (BC minus 27%); and
    S&C (TCEmax+TCmax) = $207m (BC + 23%).
    This is 2013 operating revenue only, ie. excluding financial revenue from the two VLCC "bank loans". Indeed, extensive uncertainty.

    (According to a recent Maersk Broker report, a five-year TC for a NB VLCC is in the order of $27k-$29k per day).

    The hockey stick-shaped overall future revenue profile makes sense to me ... chronic over-supply of tonnage leading to rock-bottom rates in 2012/2013 with a gradual rates recovery into 2014/2015 and beyond. I've used my robust DCF model to value TNK's stock price for my scenarios, as follows:
    BC = $7 per share;
    RtM = $6;
    O = $0.01(!); and
    S&C = $17.

    And I've been looking at some global fleet utilisation projections from Braemar Seascope:
    Crude Tankers overall = about 70% through to 2016, possibly (best case?) reaching 85% in 2016;
    VLCCs = about 65% through to 2016, possibly (best case?) reaching 80% in 2016; and
    Clean tankers = about 70% through to 2016, possibly (best case?) reaching 80% in 2016.
    I don't think tanker owners/operators can help themselves from the over-ordering sickness ...
    So it's down to the global economy stupid ...
    In 2014/2015 demand-side dynamics may have the greatest influence on tanker rates in general?
    If clean tanker demand doubles, clean tanker utilisation could get into the funky zone of >90% in 2016.
    But I wonder if TNK's 50% share of the JV VLCC should be immediately sold for a profit, before or on delivery in 2013?

    I agree with the view: "... debt obligations first, dividends second ..." TNK needs to impress shareholders with their actions on: short-run supply management, debt service/cash reserves/dividend cover, asset value write-downs, global macro-economic uncertainty, long-term supply-demand balance, etc.

    In any event, I'm sticking to my 'timing strategy' for TNK, waiting for the quarterly news later this month.

    PS.
    I think TNK will survive into 2013 and beyond.
    TNK is not OSG, see: http://goo.gl/LdDZf
    And see also: http://goo.gl/XXON0
    By one measure of general market sentiment TNK is NOT improving, ie. short interest, see:
    http://bit.ly/Qw0gBC
    Whereas OSG's short interest has been relatively static for some time, see:
    http://bit.ly/WvMXpV
    Oct 19, 2012. 06:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanker Segment: One Year On And Capital Product Partners May Be My Value Stock [View article]
    There may be short-term arbitrage opportunities for petroleum products between US-EU and/or US-Africa but I think these opportunities will always be short-lived ... I haven't looked at macro-level numbers for the US wet trades recently but here is one data-point that may help your medium-/long-term analysis:

    US energy supply (liquid, gas, etc) is increasing and US energy consumption is decreasing, making the US a net energy exporter in future, see:
    http://goo.gl/EG3u4
    This is a reality already, see:
    http://goo.gl/u0wir
    I think this mega-trend has more to do with poor refinery economics, more shale gas production and increasingly fuel efficient vehicles, and less to do with WTI versus Brent crude oil prices?

    This mega-trend raises three questions for me in the medium-/long-run:
    1. Will VLCC/LR tankers gain or lose?
    2. Will MR tankers gain or lose?
    3. Will gas ships gain or lose?
    Oct 16, 2012. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanker Segment: One Year On And Capital Product Partners May Be My Value Stock [View article]
    As of today, CPLP's charter coverage (or "capacity utilisation") on a vessel count basis, for 2012, 2013 and 2014 is 86%, 72% and 40%, respectively. In January 2012, CPLP reportedly had 2012 charter coverage of 70%. So like its peers, CPLP has re-chartering risk ... And charter coverage is not static.

    CPLP needs to re-charter five MR tankers in 2012; one of these is currently with BP Shipping and the remainder are with CMTC (ie. CPLP's "Sponsor"). The current average TC rate for these five is $13,660, whereas the current average benchmark 1-year TC rate for MR tankers is $12,375. The benchmark is 10% lower ...

    With regards to global fleet demand for MR tankers, I'm optimistic given the medium-term tendency for Asian refinery expansion and refinery closures in OECD countries. See: http://goo.gl/iIq4X

    The fleet supply narrative for MR tankers is also positive. In August, Clarksons reported a balanced supply/demand profile in 2013 "... but keep monitoring new ordering activity closely". In 2013, 81 MR tankers are scheduled for delivery. (As a rule-of-thumb, actual delivery is about 75%). Braemar Seascope reported 2011 MR fleet growth at 3%, which is the lowest growth rate for all tanker types.

    All of these fundamentals are consistent with CPLP's recent presentation. For me, the key issue is CPLP's re-chartering risk: does management have the ability to beat the benchmark TC rates? So I'll wait for the earnings news.
    Oct 16, 2012. 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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