Full time Investor / Trader, 17 years.
Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities.
Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well.
Self taught through continuous study of myself and other investors.
Extensive experience with short selling, futures and options.
Developing interest in international markets based on poltical change and policies.
Follow and read fundamentals but invest by listening to technical's.
Follow me on Twitter @Cessnadriver50
B.A. in economics and MBA from top 10 business school. I have over 10 years of M&A / corporate finance experience. Currently head the New York Shock Exchange (www.newyorkshockexchange.com), a youth mentorship program that teaches investment management skills and competitive basketball skills.
I spent my last several years in studying, exploring and contemplating who we are, our mind and reality, to quench a hunger hidden deep inside.
I started investing in stocks in early 2015. Soon, I see what life leads me to with this experience. Stock market opens a window for me to interactively create and perceive the workings of the consciousness. It is an interactive mirror to explore and probe into the working of our own mind-emotion system, individually and collectively. I feel more alive, energized and creative, and the innate fear of money in the depth of the mind started losing its grip.
My investment philosophy become gradually mature and can be summarized in the following aspects of an investment process.
1. Correctly perceiving the economic characteristics of the business and its industry: the supply and demand, competitive landscape, value generation process and its share of contribution by labor, capital, tangible and intangible assets as well as economic goodwill (the unobserved value of the integrated whole business due to resource optimization and scale).
2. Understanding the financial and accounting characteristics of the company;
3. The mass *perception* of the above two determining of the price, which can be deviate from their true characteristics -- which is value;
4. Be aware of my own thinking process -- the hidden source drivers of every thoughts and urge to act; The comprehensive and deeper insight regarding to the above three points, in absence of emotional drive and reactions.
Excessive return on investment can be achieved only when the subject "I", with a deep anchor inside and free from the influence of the mass mind, can perceive innocently and objectively the deviation in No. 3 that is going to diminish with high certainty, with the effect of time, by which the nature of 1. and 2. will unfold with more clarity through the manifestation of previously hidden and illusion-clouded true forces, or with the effect of direct intervention with the mass mind, through clear writing communication.
In another word, there are opportunities where the market can misunderstand a strong deterministic force that "I" can see with clarity, meantime know that misunderstanding will correct itself by time. The ability of catching these opportunities makes an investor *conscious*, relying on all four factors above.
About Risks: “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" -- W. B.
I'm a trader who trades both short-term and long-term. I started my career as a day-trader for a trading firm, but then turned to longer time frames and went on my own to manage my portfolio.
I use technical analysis as well as fundamental analysis in my research.
Andrew Left's Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/) (formally known as Stocklemon.com) seeks to expose companies whose management is in some way misleading investors. Left digs into SEC filings, financials, management histories and other data to uncover such situations, and he is usually short the stocks he writes about. Mr. Left has been publishing for 7 years and has created a track record that is unrivaled in short selling. Mr. Left has been cited in Barron's, Wall St Journal, CNBC and other major publications repeatedly for his work. Mr. Left was also an invited speaker at the reknown Master Investor Conference.
Visit: Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/)
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
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M.B.A. currently working in marketing. I'm a part-time value investor.
Disclosure: Although I believe the information and data referenced is reliable, I cannot confirm its completeness, genuineness or accuracy. You should not treat my views as a specific recommendation to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. I cannot guarantee any specific outcome or profit.
Paul Wagner is a seasoned investor, author and regular contributor on Seeking Alpha. His entire business career, spanning over 25 years, involved financing middle market companies. He retired at the age of 50 in 1997 and has been his own boss since, creating and managing portfolios of common stocks. Paul says "I enjoy helping less experienced investors by my comments and articles on SA. In 2012 I published a short book, "The Duly Diligent Stock Investor", to help friends who didn't have the knowledge I had acquired but who wanted to better understand the essential elements of investing and to improve the investing results they had been getting from their funds."
Paul's book is available here.
Andy Hecht is the chief market strategist for Carden Capital and Carden Futures. Andy is a sought-after commodity and futures trader, an options expert and analyst. He spent nearly 35 years on Wall Street, including two decades on the trading desk of Phillip Brothers, which became Salomon Brothers and ultimately part of Citigroup.
Over the past two decades, he has researched, structured and executed some of the largest trades ever made, involving huge quantities of precious metals and bulk commodities.
Andy understands the market in a way many traders can’t imagine. He’s booked vessels, armored cars and trains to transport and store a wide range of commodities. And he’s worked directly with The United Nations and the legendary trading group Phibro.
Today, Andy remains in close contact with sources around the world and his network of traders.
“I have a vast Rolodex of information in my head… so many bull and bear markets. When something happens, I don’t have to think. I just react. History does tend to repeat itself over and over.”
His friends and mentors include highly regarded energy and precious metals traders, supply line specialists and international shipping companies that give him vast insight into the market.
Andy’s writing and analysis can be found on a number of market based websites including CQG. Andy lectures at colleges and Universities. He also contributes to Traders Magazine. He consults for companies involved in producing and consuming commodities. Andy's biweekly radio show, The Commodities Hour with Andy Hecht, can be heard on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 5-6 PM EST on www.tfnn.com. Andy’s first book How to Make Money with Commodities, published by McGraw Hill was released in 2013 and has received excellent reviews. He is currently working on his second book, Luster. Andy held a Series 3 and Series 30 license from the National Futures Association and is associated as a collaborator and strategist with hedge funds. Andy is the commodity-expert for the website about.com and blogs on his own site technomentals.com.
I focus on investments in the oil & gas sector with an eye for dividend income and long-term capital appreciation. I typically allocate a portion of my own portfolio and devote some of my Seeking Alpha articles to small and medium sized companies offering compelling risk/reward propositions.
I am an engineer, not a qualified investment advisor. While the information and data presented in this article were obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable, they have not been independently verified. Therefore, I cannot guarantee its accuracy. I advise investors conduct their own research and/or consult a qualified investment advisor. I explicitly disclaim any liability that may arise from investment decisions you make based on this article. Thanks for reading and I wish you much success – Michael Fitzsimmons.
I look for a change in sentiment that precedes the change in trend. Moments of "lag" in sentiment can provide superb entry points into special situations at a discount; and obversely, manic enthusiasm can provide an opportunity to go short.
I research the fundamentals, know what I am getting into, and go long or short accordingly. Technical studies of the market are also an active part of my trading. I have invested for 22 years.
Educational background in economics/finance, MBA in finance.
Professional experience in corporate finance,project finance,securities.
Over 50 years of personal investing experience.
Retired. Investing for total return, to maintain my slovenly lifestyle.
I am a dog on Fate's vivisection table.
"One of the best ways to do well in this business is to go to areas that have been unexploited by research capability and work them for all you can." -Julian Robertson Managing partner of the Schildpad & De Haas partnerships. Seeking Alpha PRO contributor since the library's inception in 2013. A special selection of investment ideas is available through the Exclusive Research service.
My name is Vivian Lewis. I was born to immigrant German Jewish refugee parents in New York, so I started out as a multilingual baby and won the American Association of Teachers of French prize for high school grads in my year. I went on to study European history, first at Harvard, where I was elected to Phi Beta Kappa and from which I graduated magna cum laude, and then at University of California, Berkeley where I got an master's degree. I married Paul Lewis, a financial journalist then with the Financial Times (of London), and moved to Brussels where I pursued my PhD at the University of London. When my money ran out, I went to work for McGraw-Hill World News Common Market Bureau and never looked back. Journalism turned out to be my forte, not academia. I then went to work for The Economist in Paris followed by The Sunday Times (London).
When we lived in Washington, I took a break from journalism and worked for the Joint Economic Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Then we returned to Europe, again living in Paris, where I was freelancing as an economic journalist. In this role I covered a half dozen countries in Europe.
We then moved back in the U.S. again, this time back to New York where my husband became U.N. Bureau Chief for The New York Times. I found it hard to get freelance work because my background was mainly European.
So in 1990 I started Global Investing, initially a print newsletter - now it's a blog. We started out covering the expanding market for American Depositary Receipts and Yankee bonds, adding open-end and later exchange-traded funds with an international bent later. Because there were so many ideas you could only buy directly on foreign markets, in 1996 I decided to start what later became Global Investing Pro, for institutional and high-net-worth investors, but it is now dormant.
My husband and I are grandparents to five.
Visit Global Investing at www.global-investing.com.
Mr. Olinger was formerly SVP of Finance of a NYSE transportation equipment leasing company. There he placed $2 billion in financing for the company that included securitizations, off-shore revolving credits, TRAC leases and investor programs. Prior to that he was CEO of a nationwide technical services and technology rental business that had over 300 employees and 25 offices. He was responsible for restructuring the company and transitioning it to a high quality deployment operation. He also founded and ran a venture leasing company that financed over $100 million of equipment to venture capital backed companies. He is a value oriented investor focused on fundamental analysis.
Our team is based in Chicago and New York with experience at Google, The Wall Street Journal, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Tribune and WallStreetView.
YCharts visualizes massive amounts of market information to identify companies with long-term competitive advantages and appropriate valuations. Fundamentals matter and we believe it’s important to understand how companies perform over time and relative to their peers. We cover over 20,000 U.S. & Canadian companies and manage over 40 million investor trends in real-time.
Time management is essential to monitoring a 47 position portfolio. My 1st comment concludes with "Rich-unck:xx hrs"; I uncheck from the article to avoid repetitive comments, nonsense, and (most) arguments. I extend another XX hrs when I respond to a question or comment...I also respond to all PMs.
BACKGROUND My journey as a self-directed investor (SDI) began in 1973, and resulted in financial independence at age 52, which also allowed me to retire from corporate life the following year (Feb 1995).
I have no special knowledge not attainable by others who also dedicate themselves to the study of the economy, market, and stocks...I could cease all portfolio management today, and place it with a professional manager; however, I enjoy the psychic and financial rewards. Alternatively, I could become a passive investor via mutual funds and/or index ETFs (those works too! ). With few exceptions, As a rule, Rich only discusses his IRA here--it is only a portion of his and Joyce’s investment assets.
INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY If you ‘lived for today’ over the past 5 or 6 decades, you better invest in lottery tickets. The most probable path to a financially secure retirement is the product of an investment program (either active or passive) started when relatively young; living on less than all your after-tax income (saving means delayed gratification); and either self-directed or via professional management, adopting a sensible strategy suitable to age and comfort zone. There is wisdom in flexibility, diversification, and not being life-long wed to any strategy. It is appropriate to take greater risk for greater rewards (sensible growth stocks) when younger, as those are our lowest earnings years combined with our highest expense years--in the years between early investment and retirement, investments in solid growth companies can double 8 times or more.
There is time to adjust allocations to a more conservative strategy when closer to retirement. Never assume you have an information edge over the professionals. Time-in-the-market is your principle advantage. When/if you become interested in dividend stocks, never forget both price return and dividends compound, and price more so.
Financial independence is achieved when one has sufficient confidence his/her lifestyle will not change significantly, regardless of the potential depth or breadth of decline suffered by their portfolio--including a prolonged series of bear markets such as 1929-37. True, the recent 18-month bear market ending mid-2009, was deep--but also too brief to consider its lack of widespread dividend cuts to be as proof a portfolio of dividend-payers won't suffer income losses in a more prolonged decline (i.e., no portfolio is "dividend bulletproof").
The balance of this profile is lengthy, and likely not helpful to passive investors who simply go along for the ride, their portfolios bobbing up and down like flotsam in the ocean; their course always subject to the whims of winds, waves, and trends...THIS IS YOUR ONLY WARNING!
PORTFOLIO GOALS Now in my 70s, it’s no longer appropriate to engage in the growth strategies applied in wealth accumulation. As a more conservative investor, 100% of his portfolio consists of dividend-payers. 95% of positions have investment grade credit ratings (the lone exception is a REIT).This combination, along with having companies in 10 of the 11 S&P GICS sectors (none in Materials at this time) provide a measure of diversification. This IRA portfolio holds no bonds, though bonds and other investments are held elsewhere.
Maximizing total return and wealth preservation are mutually exclusive. A key observation: Having the capacity for risk is not the same as having the tolerance for it!
Rich’s objective is now a ‘smoother-ride’ that levels out the market’s peaks and valleys (limit losses, trim notable excess valuation). That smoother ride in an all-equity portfolio cannot be achieved without active management and continuous monitoring of positions--therefore TIME is an essential input to his portfolio management. Active management does not’ means frequent changes, as it is not unusual for a quarter or more to pass between a trimming or sale (nonetheless, when a company fundamentals change, or a mistake is made, corrective action is taken.)
STRATEGY SINCE 2008 Rich targets both legs of TOTAL RETURN (distributions + price change). His Growth & Income strategy often focuses on VALUE investing tactics applied to dividend-payers. Value investors seek out unpopular, companies most investors are avoiding (i.e., fundamentals have declined but credit rating is strong, BoD has implemented a rational recovery plan, and the dividend not in danger). Value investors seek to be paid to wait for other investors to recognize the stock’s value and assign it a greater share price. In any event, value stock or growth stock, Rich always seeks a ‘margin of safety’--no shares are bought at prices >FV, and his margin of safety is derived from dividends paid, price appreciation, and rising FV over time.
In all cases, value or growth, Rich selects well-established dividend-paying companies having a high-probability of growing earnings (growth of earnings is ESSENTIAL to growth of price and dividends). He tends to be flexible, forward looking, reactive to changing fundamentals, and willing to admit a mistake so action follows.
SDI is not easy, success is not assured, and in recent decades, advice from academics, and investment coaches, almost universally recommend index funds. Those NOT having the prerequisite time and interest are unlikely to develop the requisite skills for stock investing--thus the probability strongly suggests most newbies would be better served by indexing (Ben Graham wrote favorably of indexing). However, when done successfully, self-directed stock investing can offer rich psychic and financial rewards.
CORE PORTFOLIO Presently, +/-30 equities. Core holdings dominate at about 65% of total portfolio positions. Favored are traditional, large- and mid-cap, low-beta, best/near-best in class, institutional-owned, moaty, dividend-paying, value and growth stocks, having investment-grade debt ratings, and representing the consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, and telecom sectors.
OPPORTUNISTIC PORTFOLIO The remaining 15+ positions consist of equally well-known dividend-payers found among widely-owned cyclicals, such as financial, industrials, consumer discretionary, technology, real estate, and energy sectors are sensitive to the economy. In an expanding economy, cyclicals typically grow their earnings (and dividends) faster than do the typically slower-growing core companies. But because the reverse is also true, in a contracting economy, these positions are intended to be heavily trimmed to preserve gains as the economy peaks and shows evidence of decline. Some are susceptible to quite significant price declines when Mr. Market assumes their will suffer reduced earnings, and sometimes dividend-freezes/cuts, in anticipation of those events.
Rich is sometimes fully-invested, but unlike some, observes no such rule. Building a large cash cushion at the front-end of a correction/bear market (-20%) provides the dry powder required to both cushion the market's decline, and also creates the cash required to purchase excellent companies at below FV prices (without having to sell a position he wants to keep!).
TRIMMING POSITIONS When positions in either portfolio become significantly overvalued, they are trimmed by 5-10%, and the proceeds applied to fairly valued companies before the (almost always) temporary gift of over-valuation reverts to the price mean. If the position continues to advance, and absent other information, the position will be trimmed again. Added benefits to selective trimming include (1) serves as a more sensible method of rebalancing (as opposed to automatic--professionals do not use such a meat cleaver); (2) reduces the position's remaining Capital at Risk (which may suggest room for additional shares within an otherwise full position), and (3) provides the necessary dry powder to buy other shares at FV or below.
OTHER INTERESTS As we age, the importance of family grows. Rich has long volunteered in his community; over the years has served with distinction as member/chair of a number of advisory committees. Assisting others on SA is also a source of satisfaction and fulfillment.
Finally, having been blessed by years of excellent investment performance, Joyce and Rich have long been avid world travelers, and have visited over 60 countries over a span of 30 years (his SA avatar reflects the Taj Mahal in his sun glasses). They reside in Michigan--for 9 months of beauty, bliss, and family, and thoroughly enjoy wintering in equally beautiful Naples FL--for 3 months of sunny warmth and relaxation.
Life is good--it's been an unbelievably awesome ride!
Contributing columnist for Real Money and TheStreet.com. BA in History from Bemidji State in Minnesota. I went on to learn Chinese at National Taiwan University in Taipei.
I worked in mortgage sales at Countrywide and Bank of America until 2010 when I decided to relocate to Taiwan.
Rubicon Associates is headed by a Chartered Financial Analyst charter holder with over 20 years of experience in the investment management industry focused on the analysis, investment and management of fixed income and preferred stock portfolios. Over the years, he has analyzed and invested in both public and private companies around the world as well as advised institutional clients on fixed income strategies and manager selection. The principal has been responsible for managing nearly seven billion dollars in credit investments across the capital structure and overseeing the research and trading of credit market activities.
Rubicon Associates has written for Seeking Alpha, Learn Bonds, a newsletter and TheStreet.com in addition to advising institutional and private investors.
I prefer to research before buying and to monitor while holding. I have a background in tax/finance/accounting with a career focus in the real estate industry.
My username has a personal meaning and has nothing to do with the metal.
As Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the Firm’s investment strategies and leads its research on global macroeconomics. Prior to joining Guggenheim Partners, Mr. Minerd was a managing director at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. He is involved in leadership roles at a number of civically-minded organizations, including Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Strategic Partners Among Nations.
Sam Antar is a convicted felon and a former CPA. As the CFO of Crazy Eddie, Mr. Antar helped mastermind one of the largest securities frauds uncovered during the 1980s.
Today, Sam Antar is a forensic accountant. His primary work focuses on identifying and investigating public companies engaged in securities fraud by examining their accounting practices and performing an in-depth (deep-dive) financial analysis. His clients include law firms, research firms, hedge funds, and certain other entities. He advises law enforcement agencies and professionals about white-collar crime and trains them to catch the crooks.
His views on white-collar crime are frequently quoted in the print news media, online news media, TV media, professional journals, books, and blogs. He has appeared on Fox News, Fox Business Channel, WSJ Live, CNBC, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Canadian Business News Network, National Public Radio’s Planet Money, Progressive Radio Network, Reuters TV, RT News, and other media outlets to give insights on white-collar crime. His articles have been published by Business Insider, CNBC, Newsweek, Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, and other publications.