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Junc Bond

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  • Struggling U.S Coal Companies Face Another Headwind [View article]
    "The downturn in the coal industry can be linked to the drop in natural gas prices and the economic slowdown in Europe." - How about environmental regulatory issues?

    Since the conclusion revolves around met production cuts, why not lay out how many tons have been cut, the export and domestic demand dynamics/forecasts, and the US position on the met cost curve?
    Jul 18 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal May Face Bankruptcy By Mid-Decade [View article]
    Are you sure about that?

    US Coal announced production cuts
    date company tons
    11/4/2011 Arch 1.5
    1/13/2012 Patriot 1.0
    1/13/2012 Walter 1.3
    1/24/2012 Teco 1.3
    2/2/2012 Patriot (Big Mtn Cpx) 1.8
    2/3/2012 Alpha (4 now + 2 in early 2013) 4.0
    2/10/2012 Arch 3.5
    2/22/2012 Royal Coal (Flatwoods & Elk Creek)
    2/24/2012 Alpha 5.5
    2/28/2012 Consol (Blackville #2 longwall) 4.3
    3/5/2012 Royal Coal (Big Branch Mine)
    3/6/2012 Consol (Buchanan longwall) 3.5
    3/23/2012 James River (Laurel Fork surf)
    3/26/2012 Walter (Maple UG W.V. mine) 0.3
    total 28.0
    Jul 10 01:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ply Gem Holdings: Riding The Housing Recovery [View article]
    I read and hear a lot about PGEM's 'fast growth', yet it is not showing in the numbers.

    Single family housing starts have been running in the mid/high 20% range for 4 quarters now, yet PGEM Y/Y sales for the previous 4 quarters have been 7%, 11%, 3% and 4%. Granted, the Windows and Doors segment has shown mid 20% Y/Y revenue growth the last two quarters, but Siding, Fencing and Stone has been a dog at flat to negative. Given the mix of business it's hard to see them hitting the 30%+ organic revenue target the street is forecasting for 2013 and 2014.

    As far as the focus on 'cost containment', why were gross margins 16.3% in the latest quarter versus 17.9% Y/Y?
    Jul 9 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal May Face Bankruptcy By Mid-Decade [View article]
    Utah operations were sold for $435mm cash, which is ~1/2 the EQUITY market value. What about that $5.1 BILLION in debt?

    What is the company worth in total? The company would need to be worth over $8 billion (this accounts for off balance sheet items also) for there to be upside in the stock.
    Jul 9 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying AK Steel [View article]

    Since the company is going to bleed a bunch more cash during the next 12 months (I estimate $200mm to $300mm), do you think they'll issue a bunch more shares this November like they did last November (25mm shares at $4 each) and even more heavily dilute shareholders?

    I'm a little slow, so tell me what the catalyst is for AKS please.
    Jul 8 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Huntsman Corporation A Good Long-Term Buy? [View article]
    If you had to pin point the 3 most important drivers of operational performance, what would they be?

    The latest two reported quarters indicate lower Y/Y EBITDA. What will break the recent trend of recent weaker profitability?

    What is the market missing on HUN with respect to valuation or forecasts or sentiment?
    Jul 2 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal Bonds Show Potential In Bankruptcy [View article]
    lookey here what I wrote 8 (that's right, eight) months ago on the valuation of Patriot.

    an excerpt:
    Q: Can you walk through the value/ton of reserves approach?

    A: Wilbur Ross paid $0.79/ton of reserves in 2004 when he bought Horizon for $786mm. Consol (CNX) paid $1.68/ton for Amvest, PCX itself paid $1.18/ton for Magnum in 2008. Deals at the peak include Massey buying Cumberland in 2010 for $2.31/ton and then Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) buying Massey at $3.06/ton. There are many more but I think the message is clear. Now I have stated I believe PCX to be worth $1.3 billion, so that backs into $0.67/ton of reserve, in line with prices back when the sector was last in its true down cycle and when we experienced a significant bankruptcy in the sector, namely James River Coal (JRCC). With all the looming EPA regulations and MSHA rules, coupled with the production shift from natural gas producers as a result of improved drilling techniques, we are left with a sector that suffers from very high costs and declining demand. So, to value these assets at $2/ton, and with the knowledge that the Magnum part of PCX was acquired for $1.18 in a better environment, we need to take a conservative view.

    Q: Can you walk through the value/ton of annual production?

    A: PCX sold 31mm tons of coal in 2011. The question is how many tons will they produce in 2012 and in the years further out? Horizon was acquired at $60/ton, Anker at $51/ton, Nicewonder at $74/ton, Amvest at $68/ton, Magnum at $39/ton (those are the assets PCX acquired), Cumberland at $123/ton. I project PCX will sell 21.9mm tons in 2012. At this time, 21.9mm tons seem like a reasonable figure to use going forward for the business. A $1.3 billion valuation backs into $59/ton. $59/ton may appear generous given historical valuations, however that does also factor production dropping by 29% in 2012.
    Mar 19 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark Anthony quote dated 5/31/12:

    "Junc Bond:


    It's pure fearmongering. It takes many years of adverse market condition in a sector to drive any players to bankrutcy at all. I expect quick turn around in the coal sector. There will be no bankruptcy in any coal names."
    Jul 16 08:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: The Vulture Has Landed [View article]
    Latest Wilbur Ross thoughts on the coal industry in case you missed it. Wilbur is considered one of the best distressed players in coal.
    Jul 16 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Coal Miner Is The Next To Bankruptcy Protection? [View article]
    Not true div growth. Write an article on why JRCC will file and you'll see who submits the title.
    Jul 15 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why James River Coal Will Likely Follow Patriot Coal Into Bankruptcy [View article]
    Jubal; now that's analysis. Significant substance in that comment.
    Jul 14 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verso Paper's Merger Proposal With NewPage Has Become Scratch Paper [View article]
    Sorry, can't do; I'm involved with VRS 1st lien bonds.

    Check this:
    Jul 14 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Coal Miner Is The Next To Bankruptcy Protection? [View article]

    Can you please correct the poor grammar in the title? PhD in business, really?
    Jul 14 04:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L&L Energy Is A Profitable, Undervalued, Coal Company [View article]
    Is it true that MSHA is now hiring inspectors in China?
    Jul 14 04:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Is Dead; Long Live Natural Gas [View article]
    Or maybe somebody from XOM is reading this, in which case they'll squash the idea. Why don't we run cars on methanol like race cars do? Likely much cheaper than refining oil since methanol is made from methane (dry gas). lobbyists?...
    Jul 14 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment