Justin Jaynes

Long/short equity, tech
Justin Jaynes
Long/short equity, tech
Contributor since: 2013
teller - if we see Huntington Ingalls, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, or any other stock at 20% of their current value, I'll start going to the extremes of even holding yard sales to buy as much as I can. Here's to hoping - wouldn't mind retiring a multi-millionaire before I'm 60 if we see such a pull back in the short term.
Rudester - very much agree with you.
I'm OCD when it comes to researching stocks, so to buy back time and simplicity in my life, I just started spreading the wealth around a larger number of companies to deal with this pain much easier.
Larger number of companies means that any one company tanking isn't as dramatic and no need to lose sleep.
This is also why I like companies like GIS more than KMI - much easier to understand. Cinnamon Toast Crunch has never steered me wrong, and so far I'm liking the GIS that goes along with it.
Rhiannion,
not sure which wally world's you're shopping at - but have never had that issue with any of mine.
whatevs - here's to hoping seeing walmart in the $40s so I can add a few hundred shares each to the kiddos' college funds.
Sarcasm is strong in you
MHill44 -
I agree, SanDisk would seem redundant at this point and not sure why the author went this route. He's not a very talkative guy either (13 comments, so not expecting a reply from Doug), but hoping to generate a discussion around this topic.
Chris,
Any idea as to who logical companies would be for this?
http://reut.rs/1PACm8Y
Chairman Zhao Weiguo also told Reuters in an interview in Beijing that the company controlled by Tsinghua University, which counts President Xi Jinping among its alumni, was in talks with a U.S.-based company involved in the chip industry.
A deal could be finalized as early as the end of this month, he said. He declined to give more details but said buying a majority stake was unlikely as it was too "sensitive" for the U.S. government.
2 articles have popped on SA recently citing the article - I disagree with the one thinking SanDisk is the likely candidate since Unigroup already has access to NAND makers via previous tie ups, and that a logic supplier is more likely. Another named AMD, but didn't explore the possibilities of either Nvidia or QCOM?
INTC, AMD, QCOM, and Nvidia are the potential candidates I can think of - wondering if you have any thoughts?
Valuation wise, AMD would make the most sense, but QCOM or Nvidia could also fit the bill here.
Thanks,
JJ
they said very specifically in the reuters article they have no interest in entering the DRAM market, and they already own stakes with NAND makers.
Chairman Zhao Weiguo also told Reuters in an interview in Beijing that the company controlled by Tsinghua University, which counts President Xi Jinping among its alumni, was in talks with a U.S.-based company involved in the chip industry.
A deal could be finalized as early as the end of this month, he said. He declined to give more details but said buying a majority stake was unlikely as it was too "sensitive" for the U.S. government.
Read more at Reutershttp://http://reut.rs/1PABvF7
Wouldn't a logic supplier (QCOM, INTC, AMD, NVIDIA) make more sense than a deal with a storage player?
http://bit.ly/1PABtxb
http://bit.ly/1PABtxc
China has interests in building super computers, and US is trying to catch China. IMO only, taking a stake in a logic supplier would make more sense than another storage supplier - especially given the language of "too sensitive" as quoted per the article in reuters.
They already own stakes in storage companies and are planning on building a NAND factory, stated they have no interest in DRAM, and are lacking logic. + China has been trying to build logic chips to reduce reliance on western chips.
"and the performance delta between generations is shrinking, so the upgrade cycle is slowing down to boot, imo"
we're not saying anything different bob - i'm saying that the current crop is fast enough for everything now, and new ones aren't appreciably faster. you're saying there's nothing that taxes the newest ipads - we're looking at heads on the same coin.
my ipad 2 was getting long in the tooth - web pages were slow, screen wasn't as nice as the retina display, etc etc - now the ipad mini retina is nice and snappy, great screen, and regardless of how fast they make the next one, my current one is still fine.
3 to 4 years from now if 4k becomes more mainstream, then yes, i will probably upgrade for a better screen and more processing power. until then, my ipad mini retina will remain beside my throne for reading.
difference IMO is the capability of older ipads vs the current gen ones - i had an old ipad 2 and gave it to my son when i upgraded to a retina mini - there was a huge improvement in processing capability during that time -
http://tinyurl.com/o3r...
http://tinyurl.com/orr...
http://tinyurl.com/otz...
we're talking about ~5x the performance between an older ipad and a newer one, virtually the same performance between a couple generations of ipads, and only a 2x performance delta between what is coming up on the horizon -
i agree ipads are very useful (we have 2 ipads + kindle fire hdx), but there aren't any reasons to upgrade them, so the market is way more saturated than it was 4 or 5 years ago when way fewer people had tablets, and the performance delta between generations is shrinking, so the upgrade cycle is slowing down to boot, imo
@Techy -
Do you sell puts at all? What do you think about the $55 Jun 2016s if so? 5% return if they go unexercised, or some shares at just over $52 to write calls against if you do end up owning
Believable rumors usually include a massive surge in share price like the Intel altera deal, and by then you've missed the move anyway
"Why I'm buying MSFT and Selling Apple" - Author has no positions in either company
I think Ashari's point is that Mantle doesn't come into play from AMD's perspective, specifically regarding Quantum, since Quantum uses an i7.
Personally, I'm glad to see AMD build an Intel system - it gives the Fiji setup a chance to stretch its legs.
Based on roadmaps, 14nm/16nm
Binar - haven't looked closely enough at any deals to really comment. I was just completely surprised to see Gabe Newell partner with anything Microsoft related.
I think valve will be pretty safe since it's one of (maybe the biggest?) distributors of PC games. The whole SteamOS and Steam Machine push seemed weird to me, unless valve can really get a controller that PC gamers will like as much as mouse/keyboard combo
A valve/MSFT partnership is a pretty big deal, since Gabe Newell typically hates MSFT.
Devinder Kumar addressed this directly.
"...It also clarified how the x86 cross license does not prohibit M&A or JV opportunities"
http://on.barrons.com/...
x86 is a cross-license, not unilateral.
Once HBM or HMC (Intel) is applied to APUs and integrated graphics, probably 50% or greater of the discrete GPU market is obsolete. My guess is this occurs around 2017 to 2018.
My wife is an Etsy seller - haven't looked at the stock, or other issues (searches, etc), but I know that from her perspective she enjoys the site from her perspective. Know this is only 1 anecdotal data point, but at least from the seller's perspective, she's happy.
Added some more $WMT to my IRA this morning, as well as my regular trading account and kids' college funds. Was happy to see the pullback, and hope it stays here for a little while longer so I can finish adding.
@Gofx -
Precisely. Intel does this with their Haswell-E processors now (socket LGA-2011v3), but the socket whatever for i7-4790k chips. Haswell-E is about 315 mm^2 or so, without any iGPU.
Binartech - good catch - media outlets are reporting that it's coming to both - hopefully there were no wires crossed -
"It’s assumed that Zen will also power the 7th-generation of desktop and mobile APUs that are shown here, though AMD only explicitly stated that Zen was coming to the desktop."
http://bit.ly/1FsfHaK
RSA,
Don't disagree with any of those points, but I will probably short Intel for a quick swing trade if they get into a price war with AMD, as I would imagine there would be a temporary downswing during earnings compression during the price competition.
Shrinking earnings would probably lead to some negative headlines and a contraction of the PE for Intel, just imho
Regarding the HEDT market (core extreme processors) the real sweet spot of the market right now is the non extreme i5/i7 series.
Intel's LGA-2011v3 socket brought some more mainstream products to market at lower ASPs, which I found surprising how low they were. You could get a bottom end LGA-2011v3 processor (i7-5820k, 6 core/12 thread) processor for ~$400 now, which is way cheaper compared to older prices.
Regarding the size of the DIY market, last time I saw (these were very old numbers that look like they were posted from a mercury research data report - IDC/Gartner only track OEM shipments as far as I am aware - mercury research tracks OEM + retail channel sales, based on your position in Intel I might look at trying to find those numbers if I were you, but the reports are a bit pricey), the DIY market was around 15M chips per quarter
http://bit.ly/1B6zUvq
http://engt.co/1Fsf4hi
IDC had ~75M units, Mercury had ~90M units, meaning about 15M units/quarter via retail channels
http://bit.ly/1Fm6rDf
In AMD's hay day, they had almost equal market share with Intel concerning the DIY market, at least according to Passmark (probably not the best source, but it's a good free source as best I can tell)
If the company can muster a competent solution in Zen, and GloFo can actually build it, even if AMD could move an additional 5M chips a year (which would equate to an additional 10% market share if we assume about 50M chips sold per year in the retail channel), and assuming an ASP of around $200 each, that would be about $1B in added revenue, at likely margin accretive levels compared to the corporate average.
@Randsec - when I say smaller, I mean smaller compared to a hypothetical 8 core zen with an added iGPU.
If you look at those that are buying say a 4790k or 4590k (whatever the i5 is) - most of the time those are getting paired with an discrete GPU, so for the most part (outside of quick synch which I view as more of a fringe case than the mainstream case of gaming), that added iGPU is going largely unused.
So rather than using the die space for an iGPU, AMD is adding the extra 4 zen cores in place of the iGPU, giving AMD an 8 core, 16 thread CPU (i7-4790k is 4 core/8 thread), so moar corez!! (internet joke/reference, insert doge dog here) without tacking on the iGPU that would probably go unused anyway, at least as far as the HEDT market is concerned.
I'm saying, specifically, that AMD will save the die area of the iGPU to double the core count, rather than simply disabling the iGPU and selling it as a CPU only, as the athlons are doing now.
Couldn't edit the post, but to add - in the desktop the performance should be around that of a gtx 960 (maybe a little lower), and in notebooks it would really shine. AMD has no real market share in notebooks to speak of, so that will hit Nvidia (regarding GPUs specifically) the most.
@Fib -
Now imagine that scenario with Intel or AMD having an APU with the performance roughly in line with a GTX 960 or so.
GOFX, RSA -
Dr. Su said Zen would be a desktop product first, so I'm looking more there than Servers.
If you look at Intel's operating dollars from DCG (or whatever it's called now), those margins are incredibly high, but a lot of that is because the development of the cores is (was, not sure if this changed with intel's restructurings) in the client business.
I think AMD is more going for the desktop DIY and OEM channel - specifically the desktop DIY community - as this is less heavily influenced by Intel marketing dollars
http://bit.ly/1Fm6rDf
Every thing I've seen points to AMD always having considerably higher market share among DIYers - I don't think Passmark is completely accurate, but it just gives an idea.
Now, AMD also said Zen would be available as a CPU only in desktop - this will decrease die size dramatically compared to Intel to let AMD better compete on price.
I then think this is where servers come into play - the cores have been developed, largely paid for in client sales, now AMD doesn't really even have market share in servers - like 1% to 2%. AMD's competing on a 32nm process with Intel's 22nm/14nm. A move from 32nm to 14nm is huge - implying a shrink factor of (14/32)^2 = around 20% - meaning a new 14nm opteron would be around 20% the size of the old opterons - as an example, assuming a 32nm opteron is 600 mm^2, one on 14nm would be around 200 mm^2 conservatively (actual number would be 120 mm^2, but I fudged the numbers heavily to be more in line with what would actually be feasible).
Not to mention the power savings from the move to 14nm. Data center - power consumption is king, and AMD isn't competitive here in any large scale deployments.
So I look at it like this - AMD will (hopefully) have a product that's much better suited for the desktop and DIYers - and this will also make it a little more competitive among OEMs as well, so client sales will be better - but targeting the DIY desktop market will bypass a lot of Intel's pull since they're sold directly to end consumers.
This chip will also happen to be better for servers, and since the chips have largely been paid for, there's not really any harm in trying to grow from ~1% server share to get back to 5%+ server share.
Personally, I think by about 2017/2018 Nvidia will be the casualty of the happenings between Intel and AMD, and specifically if Intel doesn't have to continue to pay Nvidia money. As soon as AMD or Intel put HBM/HMC on a CPU, that will make probably 70% of the consumer dGPU market obsolete. If Intel is no longer required to pay Nvidia any money, Nvidia is going to see much of it's primary market gone and no 100% margin dollars (Intel payments) going to the bottom line.
I doubt few on here know what you're talking about Matthias
Mark,
Although I don't disagree with your premise, your article seems to certain of itself, and I think you've made similar arguments before.
I own both - would like to add to $COP next though as right now I have a little more $BP