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Justin Jaynes

 
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  • Sell AMD: Traditional Markets Will Do Damage [View article]
    Geek - Richard Huddy and Robert Hallock are the points of contact for the PR that went out - both GPU guys.
    Aug 20 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell AMD: Traditional Markets Will Do Damage [View article]
    Gabi,

    Nothing earth shattering from what I've gathered. My *guess* is Tonga will be launched.
    Aug 19 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell AMD: Traditional Markets Will Do Damage [View article]
    Gabi - AMD product announcements via WebCast
    Aug 19 06:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why HP's $199 Laptop Is Good For AMD [View article]
    Thanks Chris,

    Still long AMD, for the record.

    I think it will be interesting to see what the Windows 9 refresh does for the PC market as a whole. Mainstream Windows 7 support ends in early 2015 (ie, you can still get security patches for Win 7 past 2015, but some of the support features start dying off). IE, is there potential for a rising tide from Win 9?

    http://bit.ly/1qXrTU0 - support schedule
    http://bit.ly/1rUKb9N - support explanation

    One point to note is that chipset specific sales are going to be hurt, not helped, by SoC processors.
    Aug 19 06:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell AMD: Traditional Markets Will Do Damage [View article]
    Avatar - the actual news report is available on JPR's website.

    My take is it looks like AMD increased APU sales (expected based on launch of AM1 platform + more Kaveri SKUs in mobile + Beema/Mullins notebook chips - lots of product releases).

    Referring to just GPU chips, it looks like AMD bumped up low end mobile GPU sales substantially while high end discrete desktop chips took a hit from crypto mining demand coming down, so higher volumes and market share on lower revenues.
    Aug 19 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell AMD: Traditional Markets Will Do Damage [View article]
    Alex, you bring up some valid points, but there are some substantial errors as well


    1) TSMC is somewhat important to AMD, but not nearly to the extent GlobalFoundries is, and by the licensing agreement between Samsung and GF for 14nm, Samsung.


    2) Neither GF nor Samsung were mentioned in this article


    3) HP is one of AMD's best partners, yet you say they're not supported by HP.


    4) You're using JPR figures from Q1, rather than JPR figures from Q2. The Q2 figures were just published today:


    http://bit.ly/1rUGKzV


    AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs increased 16.7% from the previous quarter, and increased 10.3% in notebooks. AMD’s discrete desktop shipments decreased 10.7% and notebook discrete shipments increased 30.6%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments increased 11%.


    My take:
    To flesh out the specifics, note that AMD's discrete desktop shipments (ie, those used in currency mining) declined 10.7%, but notebook discrete shipments increased 30.6%. But if you look at the available products in the market today, it's the smaller, lower ASP notebook GPU chips available in shipping products. My guess here is that AMD's higher margin/ASP products decreased while the volume of cheaper products increased.


    5) Regarding console sales, you say that growth slows into the "second or third year" - historically this growth peaks in year three, not slows in year two. Even your quote from Mercury research states that console chips sales should remain stable, yet you assert either this year or next it could slow


    I don't disagree with much of what you say, and have brought up similar points before. But your article misses what I feel are the main hit points against AMD.


    http://bit.ly/1vZuFdU


    The "Core M" chips from Intel are serving a segment which AMD doesn't really have as much market share in. There are probably 50 Intel design wins with Core i5 or above processors for every AMD A8/A10 notebook win. AMD doesn't have a new FX series processor, based on a new architecture, for the HEDT market, and for the high end laptop market we haven't seen any traction with the FX APUs, only the A10-7300, A8-7100, and the Kaveri Pro lines in the HP laptops.


    Bay Trail wasn't that great of a processor IMO, but Cherry Trail looks much better.


    http://bit.ly/1rUGNMm


    AMD is weighted heavily in the cheap end of the market, and this is where we see contra revenue now + cherry trail/braswell/whatever Intel finally calls it later competing with AMD. If you want to focus on the negatives of AMD, focus where they stand to lose the most.


    Stating that Broadwell M is going to crush AMD isn't much different than stating Intel's Xeon line could really hurt AMD, IMO. Intel's already been there and done that. Same with the Core line vs the bigger APUs. A lot of that damage has already been done. Now the large area available for damage is in the low end of the space.


    Last year when Kabini was debuting, Dr. Su/RR always mentioned AMD had a lot of strength there. This quarter and last it changed to they're not going to sacrifice profits and margins for the sake of market share.


    Regarding GPUs, I'm not as concerned about Nvidia as I am Intel. I own both a high end Nvidia GPU (GTX 680), as well as a high end AMD card (R9 290), and both work just fine. You say you're worried about AMD's market share, but you don't really define worry?


    Do you describe worry as a couple hundred basis points, or do you describe worry as AMD being pushed down from the mid to high 30% down to the teens, where Intel pushed AMD's computer chip market share to? Worry without context doesn't mean much, in my opinion.
    Aug 19 06:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD enters SSD market; SanDisk updates its lineup [View news story]
    I think the devil will be in the details here. By all accounts these are OCZ drives - if the drive malfunctions, you contact OCZ, not AMD.

    http://bit.ly/1oO87yk

    I don't think this is really going to go anywhere, but from what I have gathered AMD is collecting pennies to allow OCZ to slap a radeon sticker on there.

    So other than some PR guys creating a few power point slides, I don't think it will be much of a distraction, nor do I think it will be worth paying attention to. It's like the Radeon branded memory - it's got an AMD sticker on it and that's about it.
    Aug 19 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD [View article]
    Bruce -

    AMD has stated numerous times that customers pay the NRE costs on the semi-custom business, and that the gross margins are lower than the corporate average, but the spread between gross and operating margins is very narrow, and that they are low gross margin, mid-teen operating margin sales. As far what quarters these were booked - no clue, and AMD hasn't said.
    Aug 14 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD [View article]
    Sand,

    My point is that I've learned a lot from our debates, but when you seem so sensational, it seems like you have an agenda to push.

    Regarding my "pom pom's" it once again seems you're misrepresenting facts. Turns out buying low and selling high is a prudent strategy, and based on comments I've read it seems like many missed several of my articles from this quarter, so let me recap.

    In May, I detailed AMD's core innovation day and said that this would likely be the next big driver up, but it was a story that wouldn't even begin really until 2015, but actually take shape in 2016.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Later, once I saw what Intel and Nvidia had in store, I pointed out that 2015 could be a rocky year. I said very little positive about AMD, and focused on the negative:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    And finally, before earnings, when it seemed like the entire internet (Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool, 24/7 Wall St., etc) were saying to buy AMD going into earnings, I said it was time to think about hedging and trimming back on positions to protect profits:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    And, directly to you, I left a comment that in hindsight turned out to be the right strategy to make money:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The time stamp on this comment is from July 16th, for those that are counting (which you seem to be).

    *Anyone* can be right in hindsight, and I absolutely hate seeing articles that do nothing more than brag about being right on various calls, so I didn't write anything sensational about my call being right. It could have just as easily been wrong.

    But to your point about being compensated, buying low and selling high is how we make money in the stock market, do you not agree?
    Aug 13 11:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD [View article]
    Nathan - thanks for the response.
    Aug 12 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD [View article]
    Sand,

    yet before we began these discussions you didn't know when AMD's debt was actually due and were spreading misinformation. Let's not cast stones here.
    Aug 12 05:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD [View article]
    Sand,


    Once again you're word smithing and flopping between, using your definitions, cash flow and balance sheet insolvency to avoid answering the questions, so let me make it even more pointed:


    If AMD continues meeting monthly and quarterly payments, are they going to file for bankruptcy?


    Please, no word smithing or dodging the question - answer this question first and then feel free to make the point that AMD's balance sheet puts them in a precarious situation with little to no breathing room in the event of another big penalty payment if they have another year like 2012. If you made points I couldn't argue with, I wouldn't argue with them.


    For example, you continually throw out that AMD lost money in Q2. Yet if you look at the GAAP-non-GAAP reconciliation, you'll see this was from debt restructuring.


    Does AMD have anymore near term approaching debt in which they could incur a similar penalty?


    Do you think moving standard APU, semi-custom APU, and GPU production to global foundries can help the company meet minimum purchase requirements?
    Aug 12 05:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD [View article]
    Nathan - assuming people shorted AMD *after* earnings is speculation. It's likely there was a mix of some before, and some after, and anything beyond that is anyone's guess.


    "My question is:" What are all the people that have been buying and bidding up AMD's price, despite the fact that even I (bullish, long AMD) thought this was a fairly bad earnings report, seeing that others are not?


    And given that AMD dropped >10% in the after hours following the ER, this triggered the alternate uptick rule, meaning that it would've been more difficult to put shorts on Friday and Monday, which would mean that these shorts have been piling in at levels starting in the $3.70's to $3.80s, and are now probably underwater.


    Granted, I expected AMD to drop lower after the earnings report - but it didn't. Trying to figure out why people are shorting it more aggressively now, or why the stock price has been in a fairly steady uptrend following the ER selloff is speculation.


    Granted, I agree that AMD is a risky bet, but I think that risk applies to both the upside and the downside, so I trimmed back my position quite a bit going into and after the ER, as well as hedged.


    But from the short perspective, those that shorted amazon at $150 because it was overvalued didn't do so hot, neither did the guys that piled in at $200, $250, or wherever. Same with TSLA - I think TSLA is overvalued, but there's no way in hell I would seriously short it - I owned one TSLA $220 put that I sold before the ER, and rolled the proceeds into KMR + a couple other stocks. The issue with TSLA, for example, is that longs are looking at things like unit growth - not earnings. So if TSLA manages to go from 30k sales to 40k sales in a 65M unit industry, the longs' ideas are met, and they can rationalize TSLA's price.


    Look at AMD now - some random website started a samsung buyout rumor (not that I put a lot of stock in the rumor), and you have AMD's management continually stating they're on track to generate one to two semi-custom wins this year - there are several news catalysts that could drive the stock higher, and none of these catalysts have much to do with earnings.


    And it's my personal opinion that the $2.50 price target is probably too low that you set, but one thing you did not mention is a timeframe for this to occur. So what time frame are you looking at, and do you think you'll actually short or no? If so, how long will you hold your short position before you expect it to pay off?
    Aug 12 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD [View article]
    Sand,


    The reason people argue with you on this point is because of the wordsmithing you do to get out of adequate and comparable comparisons.


    For example,


    "How so? The fact someone has a mortgage doesn't mean they have zero equity.


    AMD has more debt than assets to sell to satisfy the debt, they are INSOLVENT"


    By your logic, most first time home owners - young couples or singles fresh out of college with student loans and a relatively low net worth - are all insolvent. Yet banks still lend them money, and they have jobs and make their payments. If they don't, then they end up insolvent and bankrupt.


    Let's stick to one point at a time here - do you or do you not think that first time home buyers whose mortgage + other debt outweighs their networth are all insolvent, regardless of whether or not they are meeting minimum monthly requirements?
    Aug 12 03:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    RS,

    To be clear, that was sarcasm because the OP was stating he would take BRK.A/B over some of WB's favorites...
    Aug 12 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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