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Justin Jaynes  

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  • ExtremeTech: AMD denies recent rumor [View news story]
    Believable rumors usually include a massive surge in share price like the Intel altera deal, and by then you've missed the move anyway
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why I'm Buying Microsoft And Selling Apple [View article]
    "Why I'm buying MSFT and Selling Apple" - Author has no positions in either company
    Jun 21, 2015. 12:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Update: What's New, And What Is Not [View article]
    I think Ashari's point is that Mantle doesn't come into play from AMD's perspective, specifically regarding Quantum, since Quantum uses an i7.

    Personally, I'm glad to see AMD build an Intel system - it gives the Fiji setup a chance to stretch its legs.
    Jun 19, 2015. 12:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Update: What's New, And What Is Not [View article]
    Based on roadmaps, 14nm/16nm
    Jun 19, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft bringing Xbox 360 games to One, Minecraft to HoloLens [View news story]
    Binar - haven't looked closely enough at any deals to really comment. I was just completely surprised to see Gabe Newell partner with anything Microsoft related.

    I think valve will be pretty safe since it's one of (maybe the biggest?) distributors of PC games. The whole SteamOS and Steam Machine push seemed weird to me, unless valve can really get a controller that PC gamers will like as much as mouse/keyboard combo
    Jun 15, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft bringing Xbox 360 games to One, Minecraft to HoloLens [View news story]
    A valve/MSFT partnership is a pretty big deal, since Gabe Newell typically hates MSFT.
    Jun 15, 2015. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xilinx Should Buy AMD [View article]
    Devinder Kumar addressed this directly.

    "...It also clarified how the x86 cross license does not prohibit M&A or JV opportunities"

    http://on.barrons.com/...

    x86 is a cross-license, not unilateral.
    Jun 8, 2015. 02:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Bankruptcy By 2020 Unlikely, Further Downside Still A High Probability [View article]
    Once HBM or HMC (Intel) is applied to APUs and integrated graphics, probably 50% or greater of the discrete GPU market is obsolete. My guess is this occurs around 2017 to 2018.
    May 28, 2015. 01:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Etsy [View article]
    My wife is an Etsy seller - haven't looked at the stock, or other issues (searches, etc), but I know that from her perspective she enjoys the site from her perspective. Know this is only 1 anecdotal data point, but at least from the seller's perspective, she's happy.
    May 27, 2015. 11:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Wal-Mart Replicate Home Depot's Strategy To Drive The Same Remarkable Shareholder Value [View article]
    Added some more $WMT to my IRA this morning, as well as my regular trading account and kids' college funds. Was happy to see the pullback, and hope it stays here for a little while longer so I can finish adding.
    May 27, 2015. 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    @Gofx -

    Precisely. Intel does this with their Haswell-E processors now (socket LGA-2011v3), but the socket whatever for i7-4790k chips. Haswell-E is about 315 mm^2 or so, without any iGPU.
    May 17, 2015. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    Binartech - good catch - media outlets are reporting that it's coming to both - hopefully there were no wires crossed -

    "It’s assumed that Zen will also power the 7th-generation of desktop and mobile APUs that are shown here, though AMD only explicitly stated that Zen was coming to the desktop."

    http://bit.ly/1FsfHaK
    May 17, 2015. 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    RSA,

    Don't disagree with any of those points, but I will probably short Intel for a quick swing trade if they get into a price war with AMD, as I would imagine there would be a temporary downswing during earnings compression during the price competition.

    Shrinking earnings would probably lead to some negative headlines and a contraction of the PE for Intel, just imho

    Regarding the HEDT market (core extreme processors) the real sweet spot of the market right now is the non extreme i5/i7 series.

    Intel's LGA-2011v3 socket brought some more mainstream products to market at lower ASPs, which I found surprising how low they were. You could get a bottom end LGA-2011v3 processor (i7-5820k, 6 core/12 thread) processor for ~$400 now, which is way cheaper compared to older prices.

    Regarding the size of the DIY market, last time I saw (these were very old numbers that look like they were posted from a mercury research data report - IDC/Gartner only track OEM shipments as far as I am aware - mercury research tracks OEM + retail channel sales, based on your position in Intel I might look at trying to find those numbers if I were you, but the reports are a bit pricey), the DIY market was around 15M chips per quarter

    http://bit.ly/1B6zUvq

    http://engt.co/1Fsf4hi

    IDC had ~75M units, Mercury had ~90M units, meaning about 15M units/quarter via retail channels

    http://bit.ly/1Fm6rDf

    In AMD's hay day, they had almost equal market share with Intel concerning the DIY market, at least according to Passmark (probably not the best source, but it's a good free source as best I can tell)

    If the company can muster a competent solution in Zen, and GloFo can actually build it, even if AMD could move an additional 5M chips a year (which would equate to an additional 10% market share if we assume about 50M chips sold per year in the retail channel), and assuming an ASP of around $200 each, that would be about $1B in added revenue, at likely margin accretive levels compared to the corporate average.
    May 17, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    @Randsec - when I say smaller, I mean smaller compared to a hypothetical 8 core zen with an added iGPU.

    If you look at those that are buying say a 4790k or 4590k (whatever the i5 is) - most of the time those are getting paired with an discrete GPU, so for the most part (outside of quick synch which I view as more of a fringe case than the mainstream case of gaming), that added iGPU is going largely unused.

    So rather than using the die space for an iGPU, AMD is adding the extra 4 zen cores in place of the iGPU, giving AMD an 8 core, 16 thread CPU (i7-4790k is 4 core/8 thread), so moar corez!! (internet joke/reference, insert doge dog here) without tacking on the iGPU that would probably go unused anyway, at least as far as the HEDT market is concerned.

    I'm saying, specifically, that AMD will save the die area of the iGPU to double the core count, rather than simply disabling the iGPU and selling it as a CPU only, as the athlons are doing now.
    May 17, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    Couldn't edit the post, but to add - in the desktop the performance should be around that of a gtx 960 (maybe a little lower), and in notebooks it would really shine. AMD has no real market share in notebooks to speak of, so that will hit Nvidia (regarding GPUs specifically) the most.
    May 17, 2015. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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