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Justin Jaynes

 
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  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    @#'s,

    The one part not addressed is arranging pricing for the rest of 2013 and Q1 2014 via the december 2012 wsa. it only saved them a few million that quarter, but it allowed them to lower their requirement by I believe $350M this year ($1.5bn to 1.15bn), and I believe at least some in 2014, as well as breaking exclusivity with GF to produce console APUs at TSMC (my speculation based on MSFTs hot chips presentation)
    http://bit.ly/13pNnfN
    http://bit.ly/XfQzKj
    Aug 26 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    @PBBM -- Thanks, I had not thought about the angle of diversification away from oil.
    Aug 26 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    The thing that does not seem to be an immediate violation of any contract would be Mubadala raising stake in AMD without gaining control. Anything outside of this seems presents some legal hoops to jump through.

    Of all the potential buyers of AMD, an attempt by Mubadala seems most likely as they own GF (there were some potential issues when GF spun off, but it still occured http://ars.to/1diqaWW), are the largest share holder of AMD AFAIK, and have the resources for a legal battle if need be, and is also why I stated Mubadala as most likely.
    Aug 26 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    @Rand - I understand this argument, but the reason I find it important is that the Xbox One APU is now confirmed by Microsoft to be made at TSMC
    http://bit.ly/1djXm18

    Also, earlier rumors point to Kabini and Temash also being made at TSMC

    http://bit.ly/13mY0nC

    With the Xbox One APU being definitively made at TSMC, and Kabini/Temash supposedly being made at TSMC, this means many of the chips that AMD is claiming are selling at high volume are not being made at GF.

    So if AMD is obligated to buy $1.15bn in wafers from GF this year, but the majority of the products they are selling are coming from TSMC, it *could* be an issue. I'm still long AMD, but it is a concern in the back of my mind.
    Aug 26 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    The reason I feel Mubadala attempting to take AMD private is because of the relationship AMD has with Intel regarding x86 licensing. I am by no means an attorney, so this is my pure speculation, but it seems like there would be fewer legal hurdles to cross than if AMD is bought out by another company. I do agree that it seems there would be a myriad of anti-trust issues if AMD ceased to exist though.
    Aug 26 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    @1291 - Quite welcome.

    I am a huge AMD bull, but nothing is for sure until after the fact, so I wanted to share some research into things that concern me as an AMD long.
    Aug 26 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    Unfortunate because of the wafer requirements at GloFo? I whole-heartedly expected these would be produced at TSMC rather than GloFo.

    I had listed that statement either in a comment or in an actual article before, but I will point out there are two sides here. On the last CC, AMD stated about half the wafer requirements had been purchased from Global Foundries, I'll be good as long as they're close to 3/4 by the end of Q3. And if Kaveri actually ships in Q4, it's *possible* AMD could be ramping Kaveri at GloFo, which will help with wafer requirements.

    In the meantime, if TSMC has a better ramp with these than GloFo could've, this could help AMD's margins out, which could also mitigate the risk of consoles not adding significantly to AMD's bottom line.
    Aug 26 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    @Jo - Appears Xbone does use cache coherent memory.

    http://bit.ly/1djXm18

    Charlie has posted Xbox one silicon slides, and the main SoC is much smaller than I thought, which could alleviate some yield concerns. Looks like they used a seperate South Bridge for the Xbone. It's also listed as being processed at TSMC

    I know you can't click links - just go to S|A.
    Aug 26 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    Let me author's pick that one for good luck.
    Aug 26 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    makes me feel decent about an averge share price of low $3s =]
    Aug 26 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Into Advanced Micro Devices' Debt [View article]
    @Type - I think it has been just managing to do a little better than break even at best in most of their operating segments. The downturn of the PC market also happened at a pretty bad time for AMD, as AMD has been paying off their larger debts to knock down individual amounts coming due over the next several years to manageable levels.

    The barely breaking even is why AMD has been reducing OPEX, which will help the bottom line figures quite a bit.
    Aug 26 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Santa Think AMD Shareholders Have Been Naughty Or Nice This Year? [View article]
    @Azazel
    http://bit.ly/17ydyTX

    "VRZ: What’s the future of big cores? Does the rumor that the end of big cores is near hold any weight?
    I’m going to frustrate everyone by pleading the tech industry equivalent of the fifth, meaning that we can’t comment on unannounced products. What I can, however, say is this: I’m a gamer and in many ways the [FX-9590] is my baby. I wanted to do that and I pushed very hard internally for that. It’s a great success. I did that because I love what we’re doing there.
    On the APU side, I’m pushing to do something sexy and exciting there too. Watch that space. Personally, I’m a huge fan of doing sexy and exciting stuff."

    Read more: http://bit.ly/13QjHPK

    I don't think AMD will abandon it's enthusiast market, I could always be wrong but right now it seems the info of that source is some leaked slides that didn't mention the big cores. And AMD *absolutely* refuses to speak about unannounced products. I have asked them several times.
    Aug 25 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AMD A Good Pick? [View article]
    To anyone reading this thread, mapz and I had a similar discussion on my article. I suggest anyone interested read through the comments, but we came to the conclusion that we believe the morningstar data is incorrect.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 24 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Santa Think AMD Shareholders Have Been Naughty Or Nice This Year? [View article]
    @mapz - no worries man, happens to us all. I appreciate (constructive) negative feedback more than positive because it really makes me think. If for example the debt had been 6x higher than I had realized I may have trimmed my position back some.
    Aug 24 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Santa Think AMD Shareholders Have Been Naughty Or Nice This Year? [View article]
    @Type - thanks for the detailed responses. I am glad we both came to the conclusion that the morningstar data is off. I have emailed AMD as well just to make sure I'm not missing something there, but those numbers seemed off from what I remembered reading so I went back through the 10K's to pull from there.
    Aug 24 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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