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Justin Jaynes  

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  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    @Gofx -

    Precisely. Intel does this with their Haswell-E processors now (socket LGA-2011v3), but the socket whatever for i7-4790k chips. Haswell-E is about 315 mm^2 or so, without any iGPU.
    May 17, 2015. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    Binartech - good catch - media outlets are reporting that it's coming to both - hopefully there were no wires crossed -

    "It’s assumed that Zen will also power the 7th-generation of desktop and mobile APUs that are shown here, though AMD only explicitly stated that Zen was coming to the desktop."

    http://bit.ly/1FsfHaK
    May 17, 2015. 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    RSA,

    Don't disagree with any of those points, but I will probably short Intel for a quick swing trade if they get into a price war with AMD, as I would imagine there would be a temporary downswing during earnings compression during the price competition.

    Shrinking earnings would probably lead to some negative headlines and a contraction of the PE for Intel, just imho

    Regarding the HEDT market (core extreme processors) the real sweet spot of the market right now is the non extreme i5/i7 series.

    Intel's LGA-2011v3 socket brought some more mainstream products to market at lower ASPs, which I found surprising how low they were. You could get a bottom end LGA-2011v3 processor (i7-5820k, 6 core/12 thread) processor for ~$400 now, which is way cheaper compared to older prices.

    Regarding the size of the DIY market, last time I saw (these were very old numbers that look like they were posted from a mercury research data report - IDC/Gartner only track OEM shipments as far as I am aware - mercury research tracks OEM + retail channel sales, based on your position in Intel I might look at trying to find those numbers if I were you, but the reports are a bit pricey), the DIY market was around 15M chips per quarter

    http://bit.ly/1B6zUvq

    http://engt.co/1Fsf4hi

    IDC had ~75M units, Mercury had ~90M units, meaning about 15M units/quarter via retail channels

    http://bit.ly/1Fm6rDf

    In AMD's hay day, they had almost equal market share with Intel concerning the DIY market, at least according to Passmark (probably not the best source, but it's a good free source as best I can tell)

    If the company can muster a competent solution in Zen, and GloFo can actually build it, even if AMD could move an additional 5M chips a year (which would equate to an additional 10% market share if we assume about 50M chips sold per year in the retail channel), and assuming an ASP of around $200 each, that would be about $1B in added revenue, at likely margin accretive levels compared to the corporate average.
    May 17, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    @Randsec - when I say smaller, I mean smaller compared to a hypothetical 8 core zen with an added iGPU.

    If you look at those that are buying say a 4790k or 4590k (whatever the i5 is) - most of the time those are getting paired with an discrete GPU, so for the most part (outside of quick synch which I view as more of a fringe case than the mainstream case of gaming), that added iGPU is going largely unused.

    So rather than using the die space for an iGPU, AMD is adding the extra 4 zen cores in place of the iGPU, giving AMD an 8 core, 16 thread CPU (i7-4790k is 4 core/8 thread), so moar corez!! (internet joke/reference, insert doge dog here) without tacking on the iGPU that would probably go unused anyway, at least as far as the HEDT market is concerned.

    I'm saying, specifically, that AMD will save the die area of the iGPU to double the core count, rather than simply disabling the iGPU and selling it as a CPU only, as the athlons are doing now.
    May 17, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    Couldn't edit the post, but to add - in the desktop the performance should be around that of a gtx 960 (maybe a little lower), and in notebooks it would really shine. AMD has no real market share in notebooks to speak of, so that will hit Nvidia (regarding GPUs specifically) the most.
    May 17, 2015. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    @Fib -

    Now imagine that scenario with Intel or AMD having an APU with the performance roughly in line with a GTX 960 or so.
    May 17, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    GOFX, RSA -

    Dr. Su said Zen would be a desktop product first, so I'm looking more there than Servers.

    If you look at Intel's operating dollars from DCG (or whatever it's called now), those margins are incredibly high, but a lot of that is because the development of the cores is (was, not sure if this changed with intel's restructurings) in the client business.

    I think AMD is more going for the desktop DIY and OEM channel - specifically the desktop DIY community - as this is less heavily influenced by Intel marketing dollars
    http://bit.ly/1Fm6rDf

    Every thing I've seen points to AMD always having considerably higher market share among DIYers - I don't think Passmark is completely accurate, but it just gives an idea.

    Now, AMD also said Zen would be available as a CPU only in desktop - this will decrease die size dramatically compared to Intel to let AMD better compete on price.

    I then think this is where servers come into play - the cores have been developed, largely paid for in client sales, now AMD doesn't really even have market share in servers - like 1% to 2%. AMD's competing on a 32nm process with Intel's 22nm/14nm. A move from 32nm to 14nm is huge - implying a shrink factor of (14/32)^2 = around 20% - meaning a new 14nm opteron would be around 20% the size of the old opterons - as an example, assuming a 32nm opteron is 600 mm^2, one on 14nm would be around 200 mm^2 conservatively (actual number would be 120 mm^2, but I fudged the numbers heavily to be more in line with what would actually be feasible).

    Not to mention the power savings from the move to 14nm. Data center - power consumption is king, and AMD isn't competitive here in any large scale deployments.

    So I look at it like this - AMD will (hopefully) have a product that's much better suited for the desktop and DIYers - and this will also make it a little more competitive among OEMs as well, so client sales will be better - but targeting the DIY desktop market will bypass a lot of Intel's pull since they're sold directly to end consumers.

    This chip will also happen to be better for servers, and since the chips have largely been paid for, there's not really any harm in trying to grow from ~1% server share to get back to 5%+ server share.

    Personally, I think by about 2017/2018 Nvidia will be the casualty of the happenings between Intel and AMD, and specifically if Intel doesn't have to continue to pay Nvidia money. As soon as AMD or Intel put HBM/HMC on a CPU, that will make probably 70% of the consumer dGPU market obsolete. If Intel is no longer required to pay Nvidia any money, Nvidia is going to see much of it's primary market gone and no 100% margin dollars (Intel payments) going to the bottom line.
    May 17, 2015. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    I doubt few on here know what you're talking about Matthias
    May 8, 2015. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Su Stakes Future On Low Power Carrizo [View article]
    Title seems heavy handed and off. Future is staked on diversification and new chips, not bulldozers final stand
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:29 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Is Poorly Positioned In Tablets And Smartphones [View article]
    Alex,

    "He cites this specific source in his argument. He believes AMD's (NASDAQ:AMD) tablet lineup of CPUs are superior to last-generation Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) parts, using flawed logic. However, his arguments are no longer relevant, because AMD no longer competes with Haswell parts. The Broadwell-Y series is the direct competitor to AMD's Mullins family of SoCs."

    Mullins doesn't compete with Broadwell, or Haswell for that matter. It competes with Bay Trail, and soon cherry trail and the other lower cost Intel chips. Broadwell-Y is $100's more expensive than mullins.
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Why A Buyout Doesn't Really Make Sense [View article]
    Alex,

    What's your source for saying amd pays Intel for licensing fees, and if that's the case then how much does Intel pay amd for x64? Your article contains some factual errors that should be corrected I believe.
    Feb 9, 2015. 08:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Rumors: Separating Fact From Fiction [View article]
    Fib,

    It's essentially a really big credit card, and is based on the size of accounts receivable. It essentially adds liquidity while they're waiting to get paid, from my understanding.

    http://bit.ly/1Kv3gYv

    Here are the details.
    Feb 5, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Rumors: Separating Fact From Fiction [View article]
    "The Rating Outlook is Stable. Fitch's actions affect approximately $2.6 billion of total debt, including the undrawn portion of the company's revolving credit facility (RCF)."

    This is like saying their credit cards are maxed out, even though they are not.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Rumors: Separating Fact From Fiction [View article]
    I've never said that AMD didn't Seattle the ball with Bulldozer, to use an analogy that made my night sad.

    But since it never went to trial, all I am saying is you can't speak with certainty anymore than I can. It's nothing but speculation. And I'm not going to agree with you based on the findings from the EC anymore than you're going to agree with me.
    Feb 1, 2015. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Rumors: Separating Fact From Fiction [View article]
    Ephud - as I stated, if my understanding is correct, AMD chose to settle specifically because the supreme court ruled all the evidence gathered by the EC as inadmissible. So, yes, if I'm AMD and the most incriminating evidence was thrown out, I would absolutely settle.

    The purpose of a trial is to allow for cross examination. Again, had this went to trial, most of the issues you bring up would've been dealt with - aka, letting Intel's lawyers argue the evidence against Intel - but it never got to that point.

    And the fines against Intel in Europe are in the billion dollar range, no? Intel is still appealing them, but they've been fined and are still fighting it.

    http://reut.rs/1CnW6WA

    "(Reuters) - U.S. chipmaker Intel lost on Thursday its challenge against a record 1.06 billion euro ($1.44 billion) European Union fine handed down five years ago, as Europe's second highest court said regulators did not act too harshly."
    Feb 1, 2015. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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