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Justin Jaynes

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  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    http://ubm.io/1mkmKFt

    EETimes write-up on the deal, includes an article with a GloFo spokesperson. One of the better articles I've seen.
    http://bit.ly/1mkmKFx
    BSN write-up with pretty slides
    Apr 18 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    Good point stock -

    There is a big difference between revenue growth/profitability and share price.
    http://bit.ly/17Ntlyc

    "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent"
    Apr 18 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    thanks KJ - I was extremely hesitant over the title of the article, but it was a small victory for me. I don't know if it's going to break AMD out of it's range bound state, but I wanted this small victory =]
    Apr 18 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Will The Market Surprise Us? No Sell-Off After Earnings? [View article]
    you Sir deserve an author's pick.
    Apr 18 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    @Hoom - thanks for the kind words!

    Regarding Apple switching, I don't have any serious inclination one way or another, so any guess I have would be speculation. That being said, I doubt Apple would switch.

    Apple typically updates their entire platform, and does so around Intel's product refreshes. Intel's Broadwell iGPU will likely be more powerful than the Iris Pro stuff is now, so Apple will likely eject Nvidia out of more sockets and go with more integrated solutions from Intel. Screen size isn't a factor, it's about the number of pixels you're pushing. And if I'm not mistaken some of the retina MBPs have a higher resolution than the 27" iMac.

    Just my speculation though
    Apr 18 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    mobile Kaveri is shipping as well
    Apr 18 02:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    @Tah - thanks for the catch, the at least 2 was poor wording on my part so submitted an edit.

    Regarding the $200 to $500M, this wasn't the first time this information was put out. This is just the first time the "pros" noticed it was put out. I usually take a conservative approach when I write, so in this case I went with the midpoint of what was put out.

    not for you specifically, but anyone else interested, google AMD OCP 2014 Seattle and watch Mr. Feldman's keynote. It's the most detailed information I'm aware of.
    Apr 18 01:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    @ECS -

    The consoles have some HSA features, but aren't HSA per se, as far as I'm aware. The consoles are indeed APU power, and those pieces of the APU have access to a shared pool of memory, which is the hUMA part of HSA.

    http://bit.ly/1hS4SlP

    Bear in mind that non HSA APUs (Intel + older AMD chips), along with us discrete GPU guys make up a much larger market share. But because discrete cards have access to higher memory bandwidth, more GPU shaders, and higher allowable power budget in most instances, APUs won't catch up to powerful PCs at any point in the near future. A lot of this can be explained by the physics behind it - a 100W APU isn't going to outperform a separate 75W CPU and 150W GPU with faster memory this generation.

    When more was unknown about the consoles *and* it was thought that Kaveri would feature GDDR5 instead of DDR3, it was a little more hopeful there was a direct relation.

    Consoles still force developers to take advantage of many cores with weaker single threaded perf, which could help AMD out. As well as getting accustom to dealing with unified memory space. Now that both consoles are out I want to get some more information on this piece.
    Apr 18 01:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    @Rag - tablets still compete with the low end of the notebook space. I listened to the conference call, and management even stated that Intel is going to give them competition in the low end of the space.

    Did you hear Mr. Read's reaction - something like "I don't even know what contra revenue is, this is something foreign to me."

    And I really don't think the "gaming tablet" specifically has much appeal. I can assure you I'm an *AVID* gamer.

    I'm the best helo pilot I know in BF4, decent in jets, and pretty handy with every class. I used to play CS:S competitively in college, and carried my clan out of CAL-O.

    We gamers really like our WASD and mouse, if I see it take off throughout the year and ship in volumes that can compete with notebooks - specifically referring to AMD design wins - then I'll gladly eat these words.

    Most developers make games for the platform with the largest user base. Tablet developers focus on games that don't really need powerful hardware. The gaming tablets strength is the windows library of games, but all these games are designed for mouse + keyboard, not touch screen.

    So if I want to play games, I would have to buy a keyboard and mouse to hook them to my tablet to play effectively, and by this point I've just spent money to turn my tablet from a tablet into a laptop. Meanwhile, my friend with the 15W Beema chip is having a much better gaming experience on his cheap notebook than I'm having on my 4.5W gaming tablet.
    Apr 18 12:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    Management said CS revs would go up, so let's hope it does. If not the FUDsters will come out in full swing.
    Apr 18 12:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    Meir,

    I absolutely love your Simpsons reference by the way. "Bullfrogs? That's a weird name." And then the end of the episode we see the Koala staring eerily at the camera as the helicopter flies off.

    Regarding consoles, there are some barriers to entry in China, many of the consoles can be purchased regardless of legal status, and free to play PC MOBAs and MMORPGs are the biggest games in China.

    There were some headlines earlier last year about Microsoft partnering with a media holdings company named BesTV or something similar, in which the Chinese company held a 51% stake in the venture. If any game maker makes a dent in China, my guess lies with this joint venture, but since there are no details regarding hardware it's somewhat impossible to know how this would affect AMD specifically.

    Here is a link:
    http://bloom.bg/1ennvZQ

    Also, while consoles may not revolve solely around the US, it's a market that is essentially dominated by North America, Europe, and Japan.

    Here is a graph that breaks down spending by country to get an idea of where the largest markets are:
    http://bit.ly/1hRULNS

    So even if not all countries experience this seasonality, as it's a market that is dominated by a few countries, the seasonality trends from these countries are pervasive.

    To draw parallels from the last generation of consoles, the graphs I provided above were of the Wii U, Xbox 360, and PS3. These consoles were sold world wide, and I started the graphs when the consoles were first launched. This was intentional in order to capture many of the trends that could be seen with this generation. Hope this helps.
    Apr 17 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Scariest Graph I Can Show AMD Shorts [View article]
    not to mention the second year peak is likely higher than the first. games sell consoles, and right now both XB1 and PS4 have fairly anemic libraries. By this holiday, devs will have plenty of goodies to release to help drive sales as well.
    Apr 17 11:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Will Likely Center Around PCs For AMD [View article]
    I agree - I used to write about Intel and was much more bullish on Intel when I first started here at Seeking Alpha, but when I started digging more and more, I became less bullish and wrote a few articles about it, but I was ousted by the Intel uber bulls, and it wasn't worth the headache.

    I stick to only AMD because I don't feel like dealing with trolls if I write about other tech companies.

    Intel's process lead requires an incredible amount of spending, and right now ARM chips are getting more powerful, albeit at higher power consumptions. Meanwhile Intel is developing low powered chips and is relying a lot on their process advantage to make those chips competitive.

    Apple's A7 is about as powerful as bay trail CPU wise (I'm not going to split hairs here over CPU performance), Apples A7 GPU kicks Intel's Bay Trail GPU squarely in the junk.

    Apple's A7 is built on Samsung 28nm planar, and is the same size as Intel's 22nm Bay Trail.

    ARM chips have a much larger economy of scale than Intel's Bay Trails they are giving away in tablets. Something close to 1 billion ARM chips ship in smart devices each year if I recall correctly, compared to Intel's 10's of millions of Bay Trail chips. ARM can make a killing licensing these chips for $.10 each or however much they charge (I'm completely making this number up, btw).

    Whereas Intel has to recoup all that R&D they spend to make bay trail across say 50M chips (another made up number meant to give an idea as to order of magnitude)

    So ARM can amortize their R&D across many more chips than Intel, and they're fabless so they don't have to pay the fab overhead. It's true that Intel doesn't have to pay foundry margins, but if you'll notice no INTC uber bull on Seeking Alpha has ever run the math to figure out how much Intel's CAPEX is spent on fabs, how much Intel's R&D is spent on fabs, and then shown an actual number to show what kind of cost advantage these fabs give Intel to put real perspective to the situation of fabless vs fabful.
    Apr 17 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Will Likely Center Around PCs For AMD [View article]
    That's a very distinct possibility as my wife picked up a nice red blend lol - thanks for the tip!
    Apr 17 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Will Likely Center Around PCs For AMD [View article]
    no problem - you as well!

    My wife and I have a baby sitter and reservations for a lodge this weekend =]
    Apr 17 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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