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Justin Jaynes

 
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  • Upcoming Stock Moving Possibilities For AMD [View article]
    Fib,

    One time payments absolutely *DO* go to EPS. They're just reconciled out between GAAP and non-GAAP:

    "Non-GAAP operating income was $91 million and non-GAAP net income was $45 million. To derive non-GAAP operating income and non-GAAP net income for Q4 2013, we excluded the impact of:
    ***• Net benefit from patent related legal settlements of $48 million, and***
    • Amortization of acquired intangible assets of $4 million"

    My emphasis added - this is an example of a one time payment factoring into operating and net income. Again, AMD will likely include the payment into non-GAAP earnings, then provide a non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation
    Nov 15, 2014. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Upcoming Stock Moving Possibilities For AMD [View article]
    Fib,

    They have to be booked at some point. Typically things like one time payments from law suit settlements (or fees from law suits) are booked to effect EPS, but are reconciled between GAAP and non-GAAP.

    Since AMD didn't sale anything to generate those, my guess is that they will be booked as non-GAAP EPS, but regardless it will still add cash to the balance sheet.
    Nov 14, 2014. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50 [View article]
    @Musings - thanks for putting together.
    Oct 21, 2014. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50 [View article]
    I can't even find the paragraph about health care :'(
    Oct 21, 2014. 03:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    Cinc,

    "#2) So I take it you agree that we will not see a 35W tablet next year that's as powerful as a console?"

    You're confusing two different issues." - I'm not, I'm addressing the OP that said "By next years end tablets will have the power of the consoles units."

    I'm saying by next years end, tablets will not be as powerful as consoles. Do you honestly believe next year, by the end of 2015, a tablet will have the power of a PS4 or the XB1? I'm saying that there is no way, given the expected power consumptions from the node shrinks available between now next year, and the similarity in performance between AMD and Nvidia graphics, that a tablet will not be capable of the same graphical workloads.

    2017 or 2018, some of the low level APIs we're seeing, breakthroughs in memory technology (HBM, HMC), advances in CPU architectures, and advances in graphics architectures may make it a possibility to have console (PS4/XB1) quality games in a tablet. But not by the end of 2015.

    Regarding Ubisoft, I'm not going to argue that, because that would turn out to be a longer discussion than I'm going to have.

    I will continue to disagree with you about contra revenue not affecting AMD sales. Even, just now on AMD's conference call, one analysts flat out said "or in instances Intel giving chips away at cost" or something very similar to that. This is opinion, and we're not going to see eye to eye here.

    Regarding the SDP argument, that's what I said:

    "If you want a horse to kick, look more towards idle power consumption and battery life, as a result. Not peak power." - my comment. Idle/average power wasn't as great, and as a result you're getting about 1/3 less battery life than the competition.

    http://bit.ly/1w9K2Tu
    "The 31.6 Wh battery will allow a maturity of 6 to 8 hours."

    Bay Trails do better than AMD in battery life. But if you're suggesting Mullins just doesn't fit in a tablet, you should probably go tell the OEM making the tablet I linked to above that before they go into production.
    Oct 16, 2014. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    @Barantos,

    Regarding the iMac - that's not necessarily true. Larger resolution helps with photo editing, video editing, etc etc, and gives either better resolution quality with text, or more screen real estate if you scale images in accordance with the resolution.

    I know several people with iMacs, and they use them way more for work than video games, and the iMacs give the best of both worlds for those that don't need the power of the Mac Pro.

    Look at reviews of the Mac Pro that also include iMacs in the benchmarks. Something the reviewers didn't catch on to (shows you how sad some of the people that review hardware are) is that iMacs feature processors with Intel integrated graphics, and these chips support Quick Sync.

    I know lots of people with iMacs, and none of them that play any games more demanding than TF2
    Oct 16, 2014. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    #1) MSFT cut the wrong corners in anticipation of high GDDR5 pricing, and shot themselves in the foot, both from a pricing perspective and hardware perspective. But in the same breath, I own both, and don't really notice a difference from a consumer standpoint. I prefer the PS4 to the Xbox One, but as far as games go, I can't tell much of a difference.

    #2) So I take it you agree that we will not see a 35W tablet next year that's as powerful as a console?

    #3) I didn't argue that mullins power consumption was too high, but in my opinion it's more of a problem of the idle power consumption and Intel's contra revenue. Again, OEM's make very little margin on these device sales, if any. If Intel is pushing Bay Trail into these things via contra revenue, what OEM is going to turn down free money? Mullins tablet is launching in Japan today. It's almost assuredly not going to have any impact whatsoever on AMD's financials given that it's one obscure design win in one country, but it disproves the theory that Mullins doesn't fit into a tablet. If we're sticking with facts, Mullins probably isn't very competitive from an average and idle power consumption standpoint (lower battery life), and Bay Trail is cheaper due to contra revenue.
    Oct 16, 2014. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    Fib,

    "I have to see sales first." - Words to live by. I'm just more glad it was confirmed as truth rather than a socket going to Nvidia, because of a potential sell off if this rumor turned out to be false.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    Fib,


    It was just confirmed that the 5k retina iMac will be powered by AMD:


    http://bit.ly/1viW8KH


    Radeon R9 290X and 295X options.
    by Andrew 11:12
    3.5Ghz Intel i5, upgradeable to 4.0GHz
    by Andrew 11:12
    Throughout the product line we've updated everything.
    by Andrew 11:12

    And at $2500, I think it'll do decent. The iMac is pretty cheap for what it offers (I'm probably buying one to use as a living room PC).
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    Cinc,

    I will disagree with your entire argument.

    #1) 16M or so PS4/XB1s have been sold, and we're not to the second holiday season yet. Go argue with us 16M people that enjoy them.

    #2) You can't beat physics. Since you hate AMD, let's look at Maxwell. 750 Ti is way more powerful than any tablet could ever dream of becoming, and for sake of argument, let's say it's as powerful as the PS4 APU regarding graphics performance. It still has a 75W TDP, or whatever the PCIe connector is capable of delivering. Can you show me a 75W tablet?

    #3) http://bit.ly/1viRDzG Here's a link to a newer HP Stream laptop with an even more power hungry mullins chip.

    Cinc, if you were an OEM, and Intel was basically giving you chips at cost (look at mobile losses), would you pay for a chip or use ones that are darn near free?
    Oct 16, 2014. 01:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    Nemesis,

    There is a time delay from time to time on Seeking Alpha. Above you will see a duplicate post from yourself.

    Just a couple things - tablets will not be as powerful as a PS4 or XB1 anytime soon - if you said 2017 or 2018, I may agree somewhat. Not 2015.

    You are saying that tablets are great for gaming and kids are going crazy for them, and this is true to a certain extent. Like Japan's console market has all but died as consumers have switched to hand held devices.

    The chinese market is still feeling itself out in regards to its gaming market, but based on the research I've dug up it seems like PC gaming is by far the leader in China, and I'm not expecting a huge mark in PS4/XB1 sales in China.

    But my point is tablet gaming and console gaming, or PC gaming for that matter, are not mutually exclusive. I prefer RPGs on consoles, and FPS titles on PC. But the misses doesn't like me playing PC games, so my consoles get used the most.

    And regarding the Mullins tablet you're referring to, I think it has more to do with the media not trying to find one to test. HP stream is available now, and a poster on S|A that has posted benchmarks before has posted his power consumption numbers. I asked him to grab a pic of CPU-Z running with his kill-a-watt meter showing too to verify authenticity, but I have no reason not to trust him.

    http://bit.ly/1viskxU

    So TDP probably isn't the problem nearly as much as idle power leakage. Bay Trail did lots of things to reduce idle leakage, and chips from qualcomm use asynchronous designs so the cores are a little more independent, allowing for better power management.

    If you want a horse to kick, look more towards idle power consumption and battery life, as a result. Not peak power. High TDP is more a concern of battery life and temperature. AMD sent out samples to some members of the media too, and Patrick Moorhead answered some questions for me on Twitter regarding the discovery tablet. If you look through his twitter feed around the time of the Discovery announcement, you can find the tweet if you wish.

    Mullins kicks the snot out of Bay Trail for gaming, so complaining about a higher TDP without acknowledging the added graphics power is a half argument.

    But to call it what it is, it's vaporware. It doesn't matter why it's not in any design wins (except for the obscure one another poster already linked to), but simply the fact that AMD can't get any tablet wins with it speaks for itself.

    Regarding your rant about console gaming? Do you play lots of games? Do you play console games, or just PC games?

    Frame locking on consoles allows the console to refresh at regular intervals that align well with standard refresh rates on TV screens. This creates a situation kind of like V synch, but without as much lag. I'm a huge gamer, and not a fan boy of either company. I've owned both AMD and Nvidia graphics cards, and right now my primary gaming rig is a GTX 680 with an i7-2600k.

    I personally think the media is blowing the 30 FPS way out of proportion.

    I notice more tearing and screen uglies with my GTX 680 on a 24" panel than I do when playing either console on a 55" TV. Yes, there's G sync, but those monitors cost almost as much as a console by itself. Consoles, in contrast to gaming PCs, are streamlined to provide a decent experience and an affordable price. Gaming PCs can range from a few hundred bucks to a few thousand bucks, but in my experience you get what you pay for, and a $400 gaming PC if you're starting from scratch is going to be terrible compared to a console.

    The appeal of PC gaming is a bigger library of games, many of which are cheaper, and the ability to do incremental upgrades. As well as a mouse and keyboard for FPS titles (last point is my opinion, I hate console controllers for games like BF4).

    In contrast, frame locking a console to 30 FPS gives a decent experience in terms of input lag (and without a mouse/keyboard it's harder to notice the lag here), provide a visually better experience with minimal stutter and tearing, in a complete package that is just over the cost of most g sync monitors. Consoles give you an entire gaming experience - even a decent game pad for PC costs $30 to $40 - all this comes included in a console for a total package of $399.
    Oct 16, 2014. 12:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should And Shouldn't Buy AMD Today [View article]
    Thanks for writing Sean.

    AE had a really good write-up on TMF regarding the iMac win potential:

    http://bit.ly/1vhUZmz
    Oct 16, 2014. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On AMD's New CEO [View article]
    Fib,

    Maybe I'm missing what you're saying. No way Intel could've had a negative EPS without the buybacks. Buybacks just make the denominator smaller in a fraction to make the EPS bigger.
    Oct 15, 2014. 02:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On AMD's New CEO [View article]
    Fib,

    You're assuming that AMD just started working on these designs a couple months ago, and that things don't get done in tandem.

    http://bit.ly/1gBD6Fk

    And most people here are saying 2016 - AMD announced in the beginning of 2014 that they were building new cores, so let's assume this started in late 2013 for the sake of argument, and AMD delivers 3 years from then as you suggest (I don't disagree with your 3-4 years).

    Q2/Q3 2016 aligns with what you're saying and requires no pom pom waving.
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On AMD's New CEO [View article]
    Fib,

    Negative EPS or a miss?
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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