Trading Raptor Pharmaceuticals' RP 103 FDA Decision [View article]
If you model out the sales over the treatment's lifespan and discount it to today including the E.U.'s sales (approval there is likely, if the U.S. approves), and include the rest of its pipeline in the valuation, then the $286mm market cap looks a little less shocking. But, I agree that the $200k treatments may be a tough pill to swallow and, long-term, I think the company may have an uphill battle with payors to realize those sales levels (although patient demand seems it would be robust).
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
You're right about the melphalan sales- I will request an edit right now and apologize for the error. The source was a conference call transcript that was strangely worded, and I see now that he was referencing the total market opportunity for CHEMOSAT where melphalan is used (e.g. the E.U., U.S. and APAC combined).
Again, I'm not an owner of the stock yet and everything written (minus the error above) was based on information from the company, who based their figures on their own figures (e.g. for ASP costs), LEK Consulting and GLOBOCAN. Moreover, I see this as a short-term opportunity with upcoming catalysts than a long-term play.
Finally, if the stock goes bankrupt, as many have suggested, there's obviously an opportunity to double your money by shorting the stock. Price has very little to do with anything when short selling a company, just short more shares to make up for the dollar difference.
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
It seems that a lot of people have commented on my estimates above (mostly via personal messages).
I sourced all of the data from the company's presentation that you can download in PDF form here: http://bit.ly/Witish (page 16).
The E.U. market constitutes the bulk of the $2.3 billion estimate (as I mention in the article saying "driven by multi-histology opportunities in the European Union"). The presentation lists the E.U. market as $2.2 billion and the U.S. initial market as $100 million in 2013, if approved.
The reference to multi-billion opportunity at the end is implying a long-term time horizon and not an immediate market (as indicated, again, by "could eventually see"). This would obviously include more than the ocular melanoma market to include the same indications being targeted in the E.U. The presentation estimates this opportunity to be $2.6 billion, if approved, over the long-term.
I apologize for the confusion, but it appears there are a lot of shorts in this stock getting very angry at me for writing the article. I am not long yet, and if so for the short-term, just writing on a company that I was researching and found interesting...
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
Thanks for the comment.
I don't own the shares yet, but I'm primarily considering it for the short-term opportunity. I think the PDUFA in June and ADCOM in May will provide some catalysts, while the commercialization efforts in the E.U. could produce some upside, if they're successful.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
The transaction can be good for both parties because, even though AbbVie receives a capital intensive business that's riskier, it's still operating in the same market as many other pharma companies (same risk profile) but with a higher dividend yield. As mentioned in the article, I think high dividend yields are preferable in today's rate environment, which makes it a stock worth holding all else equal.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
Acquisitions rarely increase value in reality and there have been many studies showing this over the years. For instance, check out this study: http://bit.ly/V3YVm0. Large firms in their study destroyed $226 billion in shareholder value over 20 years.
One point in my article is that spin offs differ in that most spin offs increase shareholder value (see the studies mentioned in the article). Spin offs allow two business entities to be valued separately, which typically results in a higher market valuation when adding them.
There are indeed many situations where spin offs don't work out, but the article focused on this particular situation and why I think it will work out in the end. I think the split made a lot of sense for the reasons listed above and it will be mutually beneficial to both companies.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
Agreed. Sometimes spin-offs are simply vehicles for parent companies to unload undesirable assets or debt. In this case, I think the resulting company remains attractive and the aggregate spin off statistics are just an added bonus.
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
I think everyone is in a wait-and-see mode right now, although there could be some volatility within a few days of the PDUFA date on January 17th. Again, I think there are some risks both with the decision and with the commercialization, but my personal belief is that the decision will be a positive one based on the data.
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
Hi Mike,
1. The number of migraines varies a lot based on the person with some people experiencing only one in their life and others experiencing several per week. On average, I have read that sufferers experience 3-4 per month.
2/3. I wasn't able to find exact data on Imitrex(R) Injectable sales (the most popular injectable sumatriptan). But, there are needle-less versions of the injection that make it easier to digest, compared to diabetics that are forced to deal with needles regularly. I think this is a major potential risk for NuPathe, but they are banking on the convenience and stability (application over time) of the patch versus an injection. As a result, I'm a short-term trader until after the potential approval in order to wait and see the market response.
4. You can see a picture on their website. It's battery operated and can be put on the upper arm in order to hide it.
Molson Coors: The Perfect Play For A Downturn [View article]
I definitely agree with these concerns. Mismanagement is a leading cause of persistent discounts in valuation. And in this case, management has made some decisions that have hurt the share price and investor confidence in the stock.
But, I would have to say that some of their capital ratios don't signal *that* much mismanagement to justify this discount. For instance, a five-year 8%+ ROI is enviable for many companies and shows that management is still making a decent return with shareholder money.
I try and write about three pieces per week covering a wide variety of stocks, so I can't invest in all of them. But in some cases, it says that I don't have plans for the next 72 hours, so I just wait until the next week to buy, if that's the case.
As for writing about stocks that I own, I am a writer for other financial publications and that's a practice that's generally frowned upon because it's considered a conflict of interest. So, by habit, I usually don't write about those stocks, although I may reconsider for this website, since it's allowed.
Generac Holdings: Potentially Undervalued Play On Backup Power [View article]
Thanks for the great comments!
I forgot to mention the special dividend (wrote this article late at night), but completely agree with your analysis. It was indeed interesting that they issued the dividend despite the debt load, but comforting that insiders hold such a large stake in the company.
Rare Earth Metals: How To Capitalize On The Recovery [View article]
I had just included the stocks in Tickerspy's index in this article, but yes, Great Western is another company in the sector that's certainly worth mentioning.
Rare Earth Metals: How To Capitalize On The Recovery [View article]
Thank you for your comment.
The P/E multiple was taken from here: http://www.multpl.com. They track the current P/E ratio of the index and various averages.
I never said in the article that the acquisition has closed, but mentioned in in the past tense, because a definitive agreement was signed between the two companies. But yes, it's possible that the deal could fall through like any deal.
I fully explained REE price trends in the article and definitely made it clear that they fell sharply in 2011. I don't think I was misleading that it's just an early sign, particularly after noting in the first paragraph that prices "rose last week for the first time in four months".
Trading Raptor Pharmaceuticals' RP 103 FDA Decision [View article]
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
Again, I'm not an owner of the stock yet and everything written (minus the error above) was based on information from the company, who based their figures on their own figures (e.g. for ASP costs), LEK Consulting and GLOBOCAN. Moreover, I see this as a short-term opportunity with upcoming catalysts than a long-term play.
Finally, if the stock goes bankrupt, as many have suggested, there's obviously an opportunity to double your money by shorting the stock. Price has very little to do with anything when short selling a company, just short more shares to make up for the dollar difference.
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
I sourced all of the data from the company's presentation that you can download in PDF form here: http://bit.ly/Witish (page 16).
The E.U. market constitutes the bulk of the $2.3 billion estimate (as I mention in the article saying "driven by multi-histology opportunities in the European Union"). The presentation lists the E.U. market as $2.2 billion and the U.S. initial market as $100 million in 2013, if approved.
The reference to multi-billion opportunity at the end is implying a long-term time horizon and not an immediate market (as indicated, again, by "could eventually see"). This would obviously include more than the ocular melanoma market to include the same indications being targeted in the E.U. The presentation estimates this opportunity to be $2.6 billion, if approved, over the long-term.
I apologize for the confusion, but it appears there are a lot of shorts in this stock getting very angry at me for writing the article. I am not long yet, and if so for the short-term, just writing on a company that I was researching and found interesting...
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
I don't own the shares yet, but I'm primarily considering it for the short-term opportunity. I think the PDUFA in June and ADCOM in May will provide some catalysts, while the commercialization efforts in the E.U. could produce some upside, if they're successful.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
One point in my article is that spin offs differ in that most spin offs increase shareholder value (see the studies mentioned in the article). Spin offs allow two business entities to be valued separately, which typically results in a higher market valuation when adding them.
There are indeed many situations where spin offs don't work out, but the article focused on this particular situation and why I think it will work out in the end. I think the split made a lot of sense for the reasons listed above and it will be mutually beneficial to both companies.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
1. The number of migraines varies a lot based on the person with some people experiencing only one in their life and others experiencing several per week. On average, I have read that sufferers experience 3-4 per month.
2/3. I wasn't able to find exact data on Imitrex(R) Injectable sales (the most popular injectable sumatriptan). But, there are needle-less versions of the injection that make it easier to digest, compared to diabetics that are forced to deal with needles regularly. I think this is a major potential risk for NuPathe, but they are banking on the convenience and stability (application over time) of the patch versus an injection. As a result, I'm a short-term trader until after the potential approval in order to wait and see the market response.
4. You can see a picture on their website. It's battery operated and can be put on the upper arm in order to hide it.
http://bit.ly/WeOews
Molson Coors: The Perfect Play For A Downturn [View article]
But, I would have to say that some of their capital ratios don't signal *that* much mismanagement to justify this discount. For instance, a five-year 8%+ ROI is enviable for many companies and shows that management is still making a decent return with shareholder money.
Evidence Mounts That Deflation Is A Greater Risk Than Inflation [View article]
1. Consumers expecting prices to fall tend to hold off on making purchases, which affects the demand side of the economy.
2. Those in debt become more in debt when deflation takes place, since the value of the base currency increases.
3. Deflation means wages fall (or stay stagnant) along with the prices of consumer goods. No free lunch!
3 Cheap, Cash-Rich Stocks For 2012 [View article]
As for writing about stocks that I own, I am a writer for other financial publications and that's a practice that's generally frowned upon because it's considered a conflict of interest. So, by habit, I usually don't write about those stocks, although I may reconsider for this website, since it's allowed.
Generac Holdings: Potentially Undervalued Play On Backup Power [View article]
I forgot to mention the special dividend (wrote this article late at night), but completely agree with your analysis. It was indeed interesting that they issued the dividend despite the debt load, but comforting that insiders hold such a large stake in the company.
Rare Earth Metals: How To Capitalize On The Recovery [View article]
Rare Earth Metals: How To Capitalize On The Recovery [View article]
The P/E multiple was taken from here: http://www.multpl.com. They track the current P/E ratio of the index and various averages.
I never said in the article that the acquisition has closed, but mentioned in in the past tense, because a definitive agreement was signed between the two companies. But yes, it's possible that the deal could fall through like any deal.
I fully explained REE price trends in the article and definitely made it clear that they fell sharply in 2011. I don't think I was misleading that it's just an early sign, particularly after noting in the first paragraph that prices "rose last week for the first time in four months".