Is It Time To Buy Walter Investment Management, Again? [View article]
I would argue that almost all lenders in this business have negative ratings- it's simply the nature of high-risk, high-touch mortgages. Looking in aggregate, I think the Fannie Mae 4-star rating and the overall performance speaks for itself on the whole.
Hedge Your Bets With Discounted Convertible Bonds [View article]
I took a look at CWB and it looks like another interesting play in the space right now. While ECF trades at more of a discount to net assets, CWB does have a more attractive expense ratio over the long-term and both have similar holdings. Without the discount, I would maybe consider CWB in lieu of ECF, but the discount makes ECF more attractive at the moment.
Yahoo Actually Has Remarkable Potential [View article]
In my opinion, Yahoo! simply isn't very well positioned-
It lags significantly behind Google in search, while almost half of its traffic comes from Yahoo! Mail. Moreover, Google really makes its money from AdWords/AdSense and Yahoo!'s own publisher programs haven't been nearly as competitive.
Display revenues were down 11% last quarter and PPC revenues down 10%, but the key fact was that clicks were up 16% with pricing down 7%. So, people are paying less for ads when Yahoo! keeps spending money try to scale their reach.
And finally, everyone's moving to mobile and nobody seems to be able to monetize it. The next real winner in the online space will be whoever figures that out the best, in my opinion.
Refocusing On Warranties Could Save Best Buy [View article]
Best Buy already provides warranties on its own products, as well as owns its own tech support subsidiary (Geek Squad). So, the beauty is that the infrastructure is already in place, it's just a matter of marketing and expanding the warranty program itself.
For example, suppose I buy a used or new Samsung TV online and then go to Best Buy to pick up some AV cables. Since Best Buy already sells Samsung TVs in its stores, they presumably already have the parts and infrastructure in place. Why shouldn't they upsell me a warranty (their highest margin "product") on that TV?
Intel Might Sell CPU Subscriptions For Servers Soon [View article]
Exactly right, in my opinion.
Intel has one of the most prudent management teams in the world and an unparalleled ability to execute in its target markets. I'd much rather invest in a company that absolutely excels in one business than one that is mediocre in many businesses. It's only a matter of time before Intel comes to dominate mobile chips - the infrastructure is there - the opportunity is hardly a missed one at this stage.
Trading Raptor Pharmaceuticals' RP 103 FDA Decision [View article]
If you model out the sales over the treatment's lifespan and discount it to today including the E.U.'s sales (approval there is likely, if the U.S. approves), and include the rest of its pipeline in the valuation, then the $286mm market cap looks a little less shocking. But, I agree that the $200k treatments may be a tough pill to swallow and, long-term, I think the company may have an uphill battle with payors to realize those sales levels (although patient demand seems it would be robust).
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
You're right about the melphalan sales- I will request an edit right now and apologize for the error. The source was a conference call transcript that was strangely worded, and I see now that he was referencing the total market opportunity for CHEMOSAT where melphalan is used (e.g. the E.U., U.S. and APAC combined).
Again, I'm not an owner of the stock yet and everything written (minus the error above) was based on information from the company, who based their figures on their own figures (e.g. for ASP costs), LEK Consulting and GLOBOCAN. Moreover, I see this as a short-term opportunity with upcoming catalysts than a long-term play.
Finally, if the stock goes bankrupt, as many have suggested, there's obviously an opportunity to double your money by shorting the stock. Price has very little to do with anything when short selling a company, just short more shares to make up for the dollar difference.
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
It seems that a lot of people have commented on my estimates above (mostly via personal messages).
I sourced all of the data from the company's presentation that you can download in PDF form here: http://bit.ly/Witish (page 16).
The E.U. market constitutes the bulk of the $2.3 billion estimate (as I mention in the article saying "driven by multi-histology opportunities in the European Union"). The presentation lists the E.U. market as $2.2 billion and the U.S. initial market as $100 million in 2013, if approved.
The reference to multi-billion opportunity at the end is implying a long-term time horizon and not an immediate market (as indicated, again, by "could eventually see"). This would obviously include more than the ocular melanoma market to include the same indications being targeted in the E.U. The presentation estimates this opportunity to be $2.6 billion, if approved, over the long-term.
I apologize for the confusion, but it appears there are a lot of shorts in this stock getting very angry at me for writing the article. I am not long yet, and if so for the short-term, just writing on a company that I was researching and found interesting...
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
Thanks for the comment.
I don't own the shares yet, but I'm primarily considering it for the short-term opportunity. I think the PDUFA in June and ADCOM in May will provide some catalysts, while the commercialization efforts in the E.U. could produce some upside, if they're successful.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
The transaction can be good for both parties because, even though AbbVie receives a capital intensive business that's riskier, it's still operating in the same market as many other pharma companies (same risk profile) but with a higher dividend yield. As mentioned in the article, I think high dividend yields are preferable in today's rate environment, which makes it a stock worth holding all else equal.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
Acquisitions rarely increase value in reality and there have been many studies showing this over the years. For instance, check out this study: http://bit.ly/V3YVm0. Large firms in their study destroyed $226 billion in shareholder value over 20 years.
One point in my article is that spin offs differ in that most spin offs increase shareholder value (see the studies mentioned in the article). Spin offs allow two business entities to be valued separately, which typically results in a higher market valuation when adding them.
There are indeed many situations where spin offs don't work out, but the article focused on this particular situation and why I think it will work out in the end. I think the split made a lot of sense for the reasons listed above and it will be mutually beneficial to both companies.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
Agreed. Sometimes spin-offs are simply vehicles for parent companies to unload undesirable assets or debt. In this case, I think the resulting company remains attractive and the aggregate spin off statistics are just an added bonus.
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
I think everyone is in a wait-and-see mode right now, although there could be some volatility within a few days of the PDUFA date on January 17th. Again, I think there are some risks both with the decision and with the commercialization, but my personal belief is that the decision will be a positive one based on the data.
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
Hi Mike,
1. The number of migraines varies a lot based on the person with some people experiencing only one in their life and others experiencing several per week. On average, I have read that sufferers experience 3-4 per month.
2/3. I wasn't able to find exact data on Imitrex(R) Injectable sales (the most popular injectable sumatriptan). But, there are needle-less versions of the injection that make it easier to digest, compared to diabetics that are forced to deal with needles regularly. I think this is a major potential risk for NuPathe, but they are banking on the convenience and stability (application over time) of the patch versus an injection. As a result, I'm a short-term trader until after the potential approval in order to wait and see the market response.
4. You can see a picture on their website. It's battery operated and can be put on the upper arm in order to hide it.
Molson Coors: The Perfect Play For A Downturn [View article]
I definitely agree with these concerns. Mismanagement is a leading cause of persistent discounts in valuation. And in this case, management has made some decisions that have hurt the share price and investor confidence in the stock.
But, I would have to say that some of their capital ratios don't signal *that* much mismanagement to justify this discount. For instance, a five-year 8%+ ROI is enviable for many companies and shows that management is still making a decent return with shareholder money.
Is It Time To Buy Walter Investment Management, Again? [View article]
Hedge Your Bets With Discounted Convertible Bonds [View article]
Yahoo Actually Has Remarkable Potential [View article]
It lags significantly behind Google in search, while almost half of its traffic comes from Yahoo! Mail. Moreover, Google really makes its money from AdWords/AdSense and Yahoo!'s own publisher programs haven't been nearly as competitive.
Display revenues were down 11% last quarter and PPC revenues down 10%, but the key fact was that clicks were up 16% with pricing down 7%. So, people are paying less for ads when Yahoo! keeps spending money try to scale their reach.
And finally, everyone's moving to mobile and nobody seems to be able to monetize it. The next real winner in the online space will be whoever figures that out the best, in my opinion.
Refocusing On Warranties Could Save Best Buy [View article]
For example, suppose I buy a used or new Samsung TV online and then go to Best Buy to pick up some AV cables. Since Best Buy already sells Samsung TVs in its stores, they presumably already have the parts and infrastructure in place. Why shouldn't they upsell me a warranty (their highest margin "product") on that TV?
Intel Might Sell CPU Subscriptions For Servers Soon [View article]
Intel has one of the most prudent management teams in the world and an unparalleled ability to execute in its target markets. I'd much rather invest in a company that absolutely excels in one business than one that is mediocre in many businesses. It's only a matter of time before Intel comes to dominate mobile chips - the infrastructure is there - the opportunity is hardly a missed one at this stage.
Trading Raptor Pharmaceuticals' RP 103 FDA Decision [View article]
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
Again, I'm not an owner of the stock yet and everything written (minus the error above) was based on information from the company, who based their figures on their own figures (e.g. for ASP costs), LEK Consulting and GLOBOCAN. Moreover, I see this as a short-term opportunity with upcoming catalysts than a long-term play.
Finally, if the stock goes bankrupt, as many have suggested, there's obviously an opportunity to double your money by shorting the stock. Price has very little to do with anything when short selling a company, just short more shares to make up for the dollar difference.
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
I sourced all of the data from the company's presentation that you can download in PDF form here: http://bit.ly/Witish (page 16).
The E.U. market constitutes the bulk of the $2.3 billion estimate (as I mention in the article saying "driven by multi-histology opportunities in the European Union"). The presentation lists the E.U. market as $2.2 billion and the U.S. initial market as $100 million in 2013, if approved.
The reference to multi-billion opportunity at the end is implying a long-term time horizon and not an immediate market (as indicated, again, by "could eventually see"). This would obviously include more than the ocular melanoma market to include the same indications being targeted in the E.U. The presentation estimates this opportunity to be $2.6 billion, if approved, over the long-term.
I apologize for the confusion, but it appears there are a lot of shorts in this stock getting very angry at me for writing the article. I am not long yet, and if so for the short-term, just writing on a company that I was researching and found interesting...
3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
I don't own the shares yet, but I'm primarily considering it for the short-term opportunity. I think the PDUFA in June and ADCOM in May will provide some catalysts, while the commercialization efforts in the E.U. could produce some upside, if they're successful.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
One point in my article is that spin offs differ in that most spin offs increase shareholder value (see the studies mentioned in the article). Spin offs allow two business entities to be valued separately, which typically results in a higher market valuation when adding them.
There are indeed many situations where spin offs don't work out, but the article focused on this particular situation and why I think it will work out in the end. I think the split made a lot of sense for the reasons listed above and it will be mutually beneficial to both companies.
How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
NuPathe And Its Upcoming PDUFA Decision [View article]
1. The number of migraines varies a lot based on the person with some people experiencing only one in their life and others experiencing several per week. On average, I have read that sufferers experience 3-4 per month.
2/3. I wasn't able to find exact data on Imitrex(R) Injectable sales (the most popular injectable sumatriptan). But, there are needle-less versions of the injection that make it easier to digest, compared to diabetics that are forced to deal with needles regularly. I think this is a major potential risk for NuPathe, but they are banking on the convenience and stability (application over time) of the patch versus an injection. As a result, I'm a short-term trader until after the potential approval in order to wait and see the market response.
4. You can see a picture on their website. It's battery operated and can be put on the upper arm in order to hide it.
http://bit.ly/WeOews
Molson Coors: The Perfect Play For A Downturn [View article]
But, I would have to say that some of their capital ratios don't signal *that* much mismanagement to justify this discount. For instance, a five-year 8%+ ROI is enviable for many companies and shows that management is still making a decent return with shareholder money.