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Justin Kuepper

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  • Fuel Cells: Driving Towards A Cleaner Future? [View article]
    I completely agree that it's an infrastructure problem, but it's also a consumer problem. Most people could probably use an electric car to commute to work every day without needing a recharge. But they stick to gas powered cars anyway, because everyone else has one.

    However, I don't agree with your generalization that "Americans are ignorant" any more than I could point to a few Greek people and say that all Europeans are lazy and dependent on a welfare state...
    Feb 28 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fuel Cells: Driving Towards A Cleaner Future? [View article]
    The scale that hydrocarbons have makes them far less likely to see government support cut than new alternative energies. Put another way, a dollar rise in gas prices is far more catastrophic than the removal of a $1,000 subsidy on new electric vehicle purchases. Therefore, governments will spend a lot more money defending oil interests than supporting alternative energy, despite what they may say on podiums or on television. Wouldn't you agree?

    And I realize that alternative energies can be economical (that's the entire point of this article, if you've read it). Scale is keeping it back. Certainly, if we had embraced the electric car instead of the gas-powered car in the late 1800s and 1900s, it would be a different story today. Fossil fuels would be prohibitively expensive without the infrastructure and supply that we have today. Obviously. But that's simply not the case YET.
    Feb 27 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fuel Cells: Driving Towards A Cleaner Future? [View article]
    As mentioned in the article, there are some companies, like FCEL, that are seeing higher revenues and narrowing net losses. If those trends continue, they will become profitable. Of course, that "if" depends on their ability to reach positive operating margins and then just leave the rest to scaling. They are speculative, no doubt, but trading at 2x revenues is rather cheap, if they can pull it off and realize the growth projections some analysts expect long-term.
    Feb 26 11:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fuel Cells: Driving Towards A Cleaner Future? [View article]
    It's a fallacy of cause and effect thinking that just because wars happen in the Middle East and the Middle East happens to have oil that the wars happen because of the oil. There are other factors at play, such as terrorism, oppression, politics, etc. However, I do agree that it's likely that oil is ONE of the reasons, since energy is considered a matter of national security and a lot of terrorism arises due to prior intervention (it probably doesn't happen for no reason).

    But regardless, there's little doubt right now that it's cheaper for a PERSON to own a gas-powered car than an all-electric car. Therefore, those economics will dominate the market for the time being. As I mentioned in the article, this is largely due to scaling, but that doesn't make it not true at the moment. It's my hope that alternative energies do achieve scale to a point where they can replace fossil fuels. And that point is coming sooner than later.
    Feb 26 08:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get Monthly Dividends From Blue Chips And Retire Abroad [View article]
    I like this article and agree it's possible to retire abroad on $600 a month, but I would have added the following even though it goes beyond the scope of the article (after having lived abroad in many places)...

    Retirement abroad is not retirement in the U.S. Costa Rica sounds great until your Internet goes down and it takes weeks for ICE (their nationalized telecom company) to come fix it. Brazil's oceanfront Rio properties seem amazing until you walk the street and get pick pocketed. SE Asia is great until you get terribly sick from some food-borne pathogen.

    Don't get my wrong, I absolutely loved living abroad and will definitely do it in the future. But, it's not for everyone... especially elderly people who've never traveled looking to take it easy and relax.
    Feb 25 03:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Dry Shippers? [View article]
    I apologize for the late reply. I took a brief look at OSG and, you're right, they have a reasonable debt load with favorable debt ratios. But they were still burning cash during the 9-month period ending Sept 30th. As a result, I would say that they are safer than the rest, but it'll be a lot more safe when they generate some positive operating cash to ensure their positive balance sheet remains in tact.
    Feb 23 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tobacco Stock Gains Go Up In Smoke? [View article]
    I try to write a combination of general interest articles on sector movements and more specific articles on individual stocks. The point of this article was to concisely point out what's driving tobacco stocks higher and address if trends are continuing. But thank you for your feedback, regardless, I will try to include more supporting material in future articles.
    Feb 23 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Dry Shippers? [View article]
    I personally think there are better investments than dry shipping companies in the market these days. But again, that's my opinion and you should consider your own situation when making decisions (e.g. your risk tolerance and timeframe).
    Feb 23 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Boring Is Beautiful: A Low-Volatility Strategy In A Single ETF [View article]
    Good article. Too few people take into account risk when making investment decisions... *risk adjusted* returns are far more important than overall returns and beta coefficients are a great way to determine risk by looking at volatility.

    But, I'm not sure that an entirely low risk portfolio is necessary, since risk makes sense in some cases. In my own portfolio, one of the other things that I use is the Kelly Criterion, which tells you how much allocation to give something given its risk to fully optimize your portfolio.
    Feb 22 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Dry Shippers? [View article]
    You're right, it should read that Cape vessel rates alone have fallen from those levels in the example below the chart. I wanted to show the actual rates as opposed to just the BDI, because that's more telling of the impact on the companies specifically (since BDI includes non-rate information, too). Sorry for the typo!

    And I agree with your assessment. Two factors will lead to buying again: A macro turnaround that leads to the growth rates that justify the debt loads or something that deals with the supplyside. And either way, I'd stick with the companies with lower debt, like I mentioned.
    Feb 21 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Xerox Mean To You? [View article]
    Xerox means missed opportunity to me. It could have been so much more if Xerox PARC would have been taken more seriously. But that aside, good article and analysis. I agree with Joe's margin concerns, but hopefully they are overcome by restructuring long-term.
    Feb 17 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Great Ways To Play The Growth In Precision Manufacturing [View article]
    There has certainly been wider spread growth than just these companies, but these companies have been some of the fastest growing lately. And I think there's a secular demand for precision measurement than other subsectors. As you mentioned, many of the other subsectors are also based in Japan/Germany.

    That said, these stocks are trading at 52-week highs, so there may of course be a pullback at some point that would make for a better entry point.
    Feb 15 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Great Ways To Play The Growth In Precision Manufacturing [View article]
    Yes, those are some other companies in the space that are definitely worth a look. For this article, I was focusing primarily on larger companies that have seen strong growth over the past couple of years.
    Feb 15 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Solar Stocks: Sustainable Turnaround Or Dead Cat Bounce? [View article]
    Yes, it's true they have given up some gains, and there's no doubt a lot of short-term traders play the sector. But there are still a lot of fundamental factors that come into play and can make a huge difference that were mentioned in the article on both sides of the equation.
    Feb 14 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Solar Stocks: Sustainable Turnaround Or Dead Cat Bounce? [View article]
    Yes, but there are always supply and demand economics at work in the meantime. Solar has faced an oversupply, as has natural gas to an extent. The key is determining where supply/demand is headed to predict market prices and ultimately profits for companies in the spaces.
    Feb 14 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
70 Comments
29 Likes