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Justin Kuepper  

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  • An Oil And Gas Driller With Record Earnings That Could Break Through A 5-Year Triple Top [View article]
    Thanks for the article-

    I bought HP a few months ago as an undervalued leader in its market. From my notes back when I bought it, it was trading with a 9% earnings yield, 16% free cash flow yield, and 25% below its historical multiple. Since then, it's jumped about 20% to close that gap, but I'm still holding it as the best drilling contractor at the moment.
    Aug 20, 2013. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Always Read Between The Lines [View article]
    I tend to agree on some aspects-

    Being first to market is beneficial, but it's not a long-term guarantee of success. Companies may have become before Intel in the space, but Intel undoubtedly has the best manufacturing capabilities and design talent in the industry, enabling them to compete on quality and price.

    Intel is also quite undervalued at its current levels, but some of that discount could be justified by the time it will take to break into the mobile market in a bigger way and the risks associated.

    And finally, I agree that PC's aren't going anywhere. The reality is that home users are switching to other form factors, but it's still nearly impossible to do homework on an iPad or smartphone. PC's are less necessary for home users and as necessary for business users.
    Aug 20, 2013. 08:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cardtronics: Capitalizing On A Big Opportunity In Europe [View article]
    Agreed, Visa has become very affordable at these levels, trading well-below its historical averages in terms of P/E and at an attractive PEG ratio of 0.8x. I agree that the court ruling won't have a long-term impact and that the valuation will recover - the company is clearly a leader in a very attractive industry that will only grow from here.
    Aug 16, 2013. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cardtronics: Capitalizing On A Big Opportunity In Europe [View article]
    These are definitely valid concerns, particularly regarding the 7-Eleven contract being at risk. I typically invest in value stocks rather than growth stocks, so I passed this one up either way, but a hit to 10% to 15% of profits could be tough to swallow.

    The main draw that I saw was the international opportunity. Germany in particular has very few non-bank-owned ATMs and very favorable ATM habits/demographics. With its Fortune 500 relationships in the U.S., I could see it quickly entering these markets with additional acquisitions in the future that could drive growth long-term.
    Aug 16, 2013. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PGT, Inc: A Window Of Opportunity For Investors [View article]
    I had actually written the piece about a week ago, but delayed publishing until yesterday to wait for earnings on August 1st, which was the reason for the volatility yesterday.

    As mentioned in the article, they beat analyst expectations (which led to the increase), but I would guess that it sold off towards the end of the day because it had reached a new 52-week high and that usually leads to some profit-taking.
    Aug 2, 2013. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Walter Investment Management, Again? [View article]
    I would argue that almost all lenders in this business have negative ratings- it's simply the nature of high-risk, high-touch mortgages. Looking in aggregate, I think the Fannie Mae 4-star rating and the overall performance speaks for itself on the whole.
    Jun 9, 2013. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Your Bets With Discounted Convertible Bonds [View article]
    I took a look at CWB and it looks like another interesting play in the space right now. While ECF trades at more of a discount to net assets, CWB does have a more attractive expense ratio over the long-term and both have similar holdings. Without the discount, I would maybe consider CWB in lieu of ECF, but the discount makes ECF more attractive at the moment.
    Jun 9, 2013. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Actually Has Remarkable Potential [View article]
    In my opinion, Yahoo! simply isn't very well positioned-

    It lags significantly behind Google in search, while almost half of its traffic comes from Yahoo! Mail. Moreover, Google really makes its money from AdWords/AdSense and Yahoo!'s own publisher programs haven't been nearly as competitive.

    Display revenues were down 11% last quarter and PPC revenues down 10%, but the key fact was that clicks were up 16% with pricing down 7%. So, people are paying less for ads when Yahoo! keeps spending money try to scale their reach.

    And finally, everyone's moving to mobile and nobody seems to be able to monetize it. The next real winner in the online space will be whoever figures that out the best, in my opinion.
    Jun 2, 2013. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refocusing On Warranties Could Save Best Buy [View article]
    Best Buy already provides warranties on its own products, as well as owns its own tech support subsidiary (Geek Squad). So, the beauty is that the infrastructure is already in place, it's just a matter of marketing and expanding the warranty program itself.

    For example, suppose I buy a used or new Samsung TV online and then go to Best Buy to pick up some AV cables. Since Best Buy already sells Samsung TVs in its stores, they presumably already have the parts and infrastructure in place. Why shouldn't they upsell me a warranty (their highest margin "product") on that TV?
    Jun 2, 2013. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Might Sell CPU Subscriptions For Servers Soon [View article]
    Exactly right, in my opinion.

    Intel has one of the most prudent management teams in the world and an unparalleled ability to execute in its target markets. I'd much rather invest in a company that absolutely excels in one business than one that is mediocre in many businesses. It's only a matter of time before Intel comes to dominate mobile chips - the infrastructure is there - the opportunity is hardly a missed one at this stage.
    Jun 1, 2013. 10:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Raptor Pharmaceuticals' RP 103 FDA Decision [View article]
    If you model out the sales over the treatment's lifespan and discount it to today including the E.U.'s sales (approval there is likely, if the U.S. approves), and include the rest of its pipeline in the valuation, then the $286mm market cap looks a little less shocking. But, I agree that the $200k treatments may be a tough pill to swallow and, long-term, I think the company may have an uphill battle with payors to realize those sales levels (although patient demand seems it would be robust).
    Feb 1, 2013. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
    You're right about the melphalan sales- I will request an edit right now and apologize for the error. The source was a conference call transcript that was strangely worded, and I see now that he was referencing the total market opportunity for CHEMOSAT where melphalan is used (e.g. the E.U., U.S. and APAC combined).

    Again, I'm not an owner of the stock yet and everything written (minus the error above) was based on information from the company, who based their figures on their own figures (e.g. for ASP costs), LEK Consulting and GLOBOCAN. Moreover, I see this as a short-term opportunity with upcoming catalysts than a long-term play.

    Finally, if the stock goes bankrupt, as many have suggested, there's obviously an opportunity to double your money by shorting the stock. Price has very little to do with anything when short selling a company, just short more shares to make up for the dollar difference.
    Jan 25, 2013. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
    It seems that a lot of people have commented on my estimates above (mostly via personal messages).

    I sourced all of the data from the company's presentation that you can download in PDF form here: (page 16).

    The E.U. market constitutes the bulk of the $2.3 billion estimate (as I mention in the article saying "driven by multi-histology opportunities in the European Union"). The presentation lists the E.U. market as $2.2 billion and the U.S. initial market as $100 million in 2013, if approved.

    The reference to multi-billion opportunity at the end is implying a long-term time horizon and not an immediate market (as indicated, again, by "could eventually see"). This would obviously include more than the ocular melanoma market to include the same indications being targeted in the E.U. The presentation estimates this opportunity to be $2.6 billion, if approved, over the long-term.

    I apologize for the confusion, but it appears there are a lot of shorts in this stock getting very angry at me for writing the article. I am not long yet, and if so for the short-term, just writing on a company that I was researching and found interesting...
    Jan 24, 2013. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Delcath Systems Appears Undervalued [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    I don't own the shares yet, but I'm primarily considering it for the short-term opportunity. I think the PDUFA in June and ADCOM in May will provide some catalysts, while the commercialization efforts in the E.U. could produce some upside, if they're successful.
    Jan 24, 2013. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How And Why To Invest In Abbott And AbbVie [View article]
    The transaction can be good for both parties because, even though AbbVie receives a capital intensive business that's riskier, it's still operating in the same market as many other pharma companies (same risk profile) but with a higher dividend yield. As mentioned in the article, I think high dividend yields are preferable in today's rate environment, which makes it a stock worth holding all else equal.
    Jan 22, 2013. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment