Comments on Kamal Ahuja's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/kamal-ahuja/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/76875-strong-growth-in-lithium-demand-to-power-fmc-corp-rockwood-holdings?source=feed#comment-726128 726128 I saw a report on BBC World Report on lithium last night: > 1. Peru's salt flats contain 50% of the world's known lithium deposits. > > 2. The world's demand for lithium will grow 5-fold if, as the analyst > expect, the US and China start producing electric hybrid cars.
3. > The Peruvian government, with the help of native Indian and environmental > activists, is restricting mining of its salt flats to only 1 licensed > local miner.]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:56:27 -0400

On 2008 Sep 11 01:02 AM cindyw wrote:

> I saw a report on BBC World Report on lithium last night:
> 1. Peru's salt flats contain 50% of the world's known lithium deposits.
>
> 2. The world's demand for lithium will grow 5-fold if, as the analyst
> expect, the US and China start producing electric hybrid cars.
3.
> The Peruvian government, with the help of native Indian and environmental
> activists, is restricting mining of its salt flats to only 1 licensed
> local miner.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76875-strong-growth-in-lithium-demand-to-power-fmc-corp-rockwood-holdings?source=feed#comment-251186 251186 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 01:02:14 -0400 1. Peru's salt flats contain 50% of the world's known lithium deposits.
2. The world's demand for lithium will grow 5-fold if, as the analyst expect, the US and China start producing electric hybrid cars.
3. The Peruvian government, with the help of native Indian and environmental activists, is restricting mining of its salt flats to only 1 licensed local miner.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240601 240601 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 01:23:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240288 240288 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:33:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240275 240275 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:22:07 -0400
Also, you make the assumption that energy use in the US will be stagnant. It won't be. It is expected to grow by a staggering 50% by 2030. There will be plenty of room for all new energy technologies and for continued use of fossil fuel.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240265 240265 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:10:42 -0400
One thing to add. Solar will reach grid parity at much different times for different places. Southern California will reach it much sooner than most other places. Electricity is high there compared to the rest of the country, the sunlight profile is much brighter there, and its 15 million residences is a large market which will help price reductions through economies of scale.

For solar concentrating technology (and even solar PV farms), the Mojave desert has one of the best solar profiles in the world because it is a high desert (over 2000 feet in elevation). It is also very close to those 15 million people. Money has already been approved for greatly improving the power transmission lines into the desert for both solar and wind power.

One more thing about California. It is very liberal when it comes to the environment. Coal fired power plants are looked down on. Alternate energy is loved.

So when it comes to watching the grid parity game, keep your eyes focused on southern California. It will be one of the first places in the world crossing the grid-parity finish line. When it crosses, and volume of solar installations there starts taking off, it will speed cost reductions and promote installations elsewhere. This is the "critical mass" effect that us investors in solar power are waiting for.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240238 240238 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 13:29:30 -0400
Waste heat recovery via solid state direct conversion to electricity will cut the use of coal and NG by 70%. No other changes required. So the demand for those energy sources is going south, period; by 70%.

That makes the 30% remaining for replacement with solar and wind (and geo and hydro and nuc) a breeze!

No more drill, drill, drill, and dig, dig, dig (not to mention extract, process, transport, remediate, etc.).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240205 240205 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 12:59:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240132 240132 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 12:07:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240050 240050 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 10:58:56 -0400
On a different note, if I were signed up for any GREs, I might still be able to pass: "For the reasons stated below, I believe that solar power generation is on track to achieve grid parity in the next few years without the consideration of any government subsidies."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-240018 240018 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 10:37:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239985 239985 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 10:11:07 -0400
The factors you cite are correct, but the non-time-differentiated average prices you cite demonstrate a significantly less sophisticated conceptual grasp of the energy market than the levelized cost of investment + O&M basis for solar comparison used in the article. Further, by arguing that solar will not get to grid parity without government support, you win an argument only against a point not made in the article - I hope you aren't signed up to take the GREs any time soon!

In fact, these same calculations are generally used within the investment and solar communities - the question is, what happens *after* grid [parity is achieved? Current utility rate design and public utility commission thinking is ill-equipped to handle or value sub-market customer sited generation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239956 239956 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 09:48:41 -0400
How does solar compare? The levelized cost of coal energy ~0.07/kWh. Wind ranges from $0.07/kWh to $0.12/kWh depending on the wind resource.

Like you I believe that solar is the solution to a lot of our energy problems. But pulling random numbers and claiming that they will be competitive in a few years without government subsidies is not only naive but detrimental for the industry.

For solar to reach grid parity, its necessary to have commercial solar installations as they cause cost reductions through (1) economies of scale, (2) learning in production, installation and O&M. And this isn't even considering the problem of grid integration. Without government support, solar will never be able to do reach grid parity. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239931 239931 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 09:22:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239608 239608 $0.30/kWh) would definitely lead to energy saving, which could be a good thing long term. However, what would be the percentage of renewable energy that would still support any developed economy? Both solar and wind suffer from 0-100% output oscillations based on the weather and time of day. This would require extremely expensive and perhaps inefficient and unstable grid. Or would we just flip the switches off on a wind-less eve?]]> Tue, 26 Aug 2008 18:00:35 -0400 $0.30/kWh) would definitely lead to energy saving, which could be a good thing long term. However, what would be the percentage of renewable energy that would still support any developed economy? Both solar and wind suffer from 0-100% output oscillations based on the weather and time of day. This would require extremely expensive and perhaps inefficient and unstable grid. Or would we just flip the switches off on a wind-less eve?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239355 239355 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 12:13:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239308 239308 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 11:38:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239303 239303 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 11:25:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239285 239285 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 11:11:36 -0400
Your supposed cartel is not going to be able drop coal costs unless supply and demand dictactes it. Coal and gas generated electricity costs are going to continue to rise because of scarcity, transportation costs, land costs, etc.

If alternatives energy costs come way down and their use goes way up, then obviously the demand (and cost) for coal and nat. gas go down. But this is a bullish scenerio for alt. energy not what you're suggesting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239268 239268 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:56:18 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92708-solar-generation-costs-on-track-to-achieve-grid-parity?source=feed#comment-239245 239245 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:34:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89982-terex-valuation-driven-to-dirt-amidst-street-rubble?source=feed#comment-227364 227364 Sun, 10 Aug 2008 20:03:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89982-terex-valuation-driven-to-dirt-amidst-street-rubble?source=feed#comment-226781 226781 Sat, 09 Aug 2008 12:41:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89982-terex-valuation-driven-to-dirt-amidst-street-rubble?source=feed#comment-226770 226770 Sat, 09 Aug 2008 12:17:20 -0400
TEX is a very cyclical play and this analysis assumes that the recent past will be the future. I personally think that this thesis is too well known and over hyped. Earth moving equipment, cranes etc are not difficult to make and there is no "moat" for this company. Indian/Chinese manufacturers like Tata etc. are better positioned to take 3rd world markets.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89982-terex-valuation-driven-to-dirt-amidst-street-rubble?source=feed#comment-226292 226292 Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:59:51 -0400
By the way.. Anyone catch that some of these companies are producing 'hybrid-style' equipment..

jegan ;-) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89982-terex-valuation-driven-to-dirt-amidst-street-rubble?source=feed#comment-226234 226234 Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:20:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76875-strong-growth-in-lithium-demand-to-power-fmc-corp-rockwood-holdings?source=feed#comment-218482 218482 Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:16:24 -0400
Both ROC and FMC reported strong quarterly earnings this morning.

Rockwood Holdings Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.68 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.60; revenues rose 17.8 percent YOY to $945.5 million vs the $902.1 million consensus. Company reaffirms FY08 revenue growth guidance of +8% (Adapted from Briefing.com / In Play)

FMC reported that 1Q Revenues jumped 23 percent to $806.6 million. Excluding a restructuring charge of $14.5 million, the company posted earnings of $1.29 per share. Net income in the quarter was $84.4 million, or $1.10 a share. FMC also again raised its 2008 profit forecast, excluding restructuring and other charges, to $4.20 to $4.40 per share (Adapted from Reuters report).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76875-strong-growth-in-lithium-demand-to-power-fmc-corp-rockwood-holdings?source=feed#comment-204885 204885 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 02:38:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76875-strong-growth-in-lithium-demand-to-power-fmc-corp-rockwood-holdings?source=feed#comment-181864 181864 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 11:25:27 -0400
If the voltage in the auto batteries is 350v, that cuts down quite a bit on the ratio. Nonetheless, since you can run a laptop from the cigarette lighter plug in your car, there's obviously a vast difference in capacity. My gut feeling is that we're talking about a 50-fold difference.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79679-states-rps-mandates-justify-lofty-solar-valuations?source=feed#comment-178674 178674 Tue, 03 Jun 2008 14:29:00 -0400