Kapitall's  Instablog

The following is a list of undervalued takeover targets, when comparing the current price to the average analyst target price.

To compile the list, we started with a list of 260 takeover targets identified by sources including CNBC, UBS, Merrill Lynch, Barrons, Morningstar, and Street Insider. We then narrowed down the list by only focusing on stocks that are trading at deep discounts to their analyst target price (used as a proxy for fair value).

Yes, there are many limitations to this valuation approach, but the goal here is to give you a starting point for your own analysis.

Target price data sourced from Finviz. Here's the complete list:

1. Wilmington Trust Corporation (WL): Regional Bank. Market cap of $376.23M. Dick Bove, a prominent banking analyst, identified the stock as a takeover target. Current price at $4.11 vs. target price at $9.86 (discount of -58.32%). Short float at 13.09%, which implies a short ratio of 4.21 days. The stock has lost -65.55% over the last year.

2. Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL): Biotechnology Industry. Market cap of $474.84M. Morningstar identified the stock as a takeover target. Current price at $4.37 vs. target price at $6.67 (discount of -34.48%). Short float at 6.64%, which implies a short ratio of 6.89 days. The stock has lost -31.18% over the last year.

3. Rubicon Technology, Inc. (RBCN): Semiconductor Industry. Market cap of $549.18M. UBS identified the stock as a takeover target. Current price at $23.94 vs. target price at $36.33 (discount of -34.1%). Short float at 78.64%, which implies a short ratio of 11.99 days. The stock has gained 69.91% over the last year.

4. Pinnacle Airlines Corp. (PNCL): Regional Airlines Industry. Market cap of $105.66M. The StockPickr Takeover Portfolio identified the stock as a takeover target. Current price at $5.69 vs. target price at $8.63 (discount of -34.07%). Short float at 3.58%, which implies a short ratio of 9.09 days. The stock has lost -5.17% over the last year.

5. Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc. (BBW): Toy & Hobby Stores Industry. Market cap of $133.53M. The Wall Street Journal identified the stock as a takeover target. Current price at $6.63 vs. target price at $10.00 (discount of -33.7%). Short float at 11.3%, which implies a short ratio of 17.38 days. The stock has gained 27.99% over the last year.

Interactive Chart: Press Play to see how analyst opinion has changed on all the stocks mentioned above.

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Disclosure: No positions

The following is a list of stocks that have signaled a bearish MACD crossover during recent sessions. Institutional investors seem to think there's more downside to these names, with all of these stocks seeing institutional outflows over the last three months.

Bearish MACD indicator data sourced from Stockcharts, institutional data sourced from Reuters. Full analysis below.



The list has been sorted by change in institutional ownership over the last three months.

1. NutriSystem, Inc. (NTRI): Personal Services Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.153. Institutional investors currently own 31,537,875 shares vs. 33,494,374 shares held three months ago (-5.84% change).

2. Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC): Oil & Gas Operations Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 1.137. Institutional investors currently own 73,331,366 shares vs. 75,057,819 shares held three months ago (-2.3% change).

3. Overstock.com Inc. (OSTK): Catalog & Mail Order Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.289. Institutional investors currently own 13,142,870 shares vs. 13,308,994 shares held three months ago (-1.25% change).

4. Albany Molecular Research, Inc. (AMRI): Biotechnology & Drugs Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.069. Institutional investors currently own 19,667,126 shares vs. 19,833,077 shares held three months ago (-0.84% change).

5. Inergy, L.P. (NRGY): Oil & Gas Operations Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.545. Institutional investors currently own 23,238,340 shares vs. 23,407,930 shares held three months ago (-0.72% change).

6. Dean Foods, Inc. (DF): Food Processing Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.028. Institutional investors currently own 160,115,421 shares vs. 160,853,324 shares held three months ago (-0.46% change).

7. CPFL Energia SA (CPL): Electric Utilities Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.7. Institutional investors currently own 5,122,567 shares vs. 5,141,097 shares held three months ago (-0.36% change).

8. Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS): Fabricated Products Industry. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.44. Institutional investors currently own 9,657,245 shares vs. 9,680,460 shares held three months ago (-0.24% change).

9. First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. (FMBI): Regional Bank. Daily MACD Line(12,26,9) at 0.169. Institutional investors currently own 58,989,384 shares vs. 59,124,750 shares held three months ago (-0.23% change).


Disclosure: No positions

Here are a few top open market purchases made by insiders over the last week. For each company, we'll list the individuals involved, and the size of the transaction.

To give some perspective on investor sentiment, we'll also include short float and performance data.

Insider data sourced from the SEC, short float data sourced from Finviz.



The list has been sorted alphabetically.

1. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO): Market cap of $2,916B. Michael G. Jesselson (Director) bought $289,043 worth of stock on September 22. Short float at 7.06%, which implies a short ratio of 2.6 days. The stock has lost 9.09% over the last year.

2. Agilysys Inc. (AGYS): Market cap of $147M. Mak Capital One LLC (10% Owner) bought $1,732,895 worth of stock between September 20-27. Short float at 3.20%, which implies a short ratio of 4.42 days. The stock has lost 13.18% over the last year.

3. BGC Partners, Inc. (BGCP): Market cap of $541M. Howard W. Lutnik (Chairman and CEO) bought $279,028 worth of stock on September 20. Short float at 9.44%, which implies a short ratio of 12.85 days. The stock has gained 47.64% over the last year.

4. Bryn Mawr Bank Corp. (BMTC): Market cap of $208M. George W. Connell (10% Owner) bought $168,765 worth of stock between September 20-22. Short float at 3.59%, which implies a short ratio of 13.22 days. The stock has gained 0.23% over the last year.

5. Exar Corp. (EXAR): Market cap of $267M. Soros Fund Management LLC (10% Owner) bought $10,540,362 worth of stock between September 21-23. Short float at 3.79%, which implies a short ratio of 6.92 days. The stock has lost 21.43% over the last year.

6. Winthrop Realty Trust (FUR): Market cap of $269M. Michael L. Ashner (Chairman and CEO) bought $2,430,400 worth of stock on September 27. Short float at 5.17%, which implies a short ratio of 6.06 days. The stock has gained 35.36% over the last year.

7. General Dynamics Corp. (GD): Market cap of $23,986B. William P. Fricks (Director) bought $127,160 worth of stock on September 24. Short float at 1.19%, which implies a short ratio of 2.03 days. The stock has gained 0.16% over the last year.

8. Hypercom Corp. (HYC): Market cap of $234M. Alex Meruelo (10% Owner) bought $702,067 worth of stock between September 21-23. Short float at 5.29%, which implies a short ratio of 7.82 days. The stock has gained 3.89% over the last year.

9. Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC): Market cap of $948M. Peter Arkley (Director) bought $351,000 worth of stock on September 20. Short float at 8.18%, which implies a short ratio of 6.45 days. The stock has lost 3.41% over the last year.

10. United Community Banks, Inc. (UCBI): Market cap of $209M. Robert L. Head Jr. (Director) bought $418,990 worth of stock on May 28 and W. C. Nelson Jr. (Director) bought $224,185 worth of stock on August 31. Short float at 8.32%, which implies a short ratio of 9.02 days. The stock has lost 55.95% over the last year.

11. WESCO International Inc. (WCC): Market cap of $1,865B. Kimberly G. Windrow (Vice President, Human Resources) bought $150,691 worth of stock on September 27. Short float at 10.95%, which implies a short ratio of 9.36 days. The stock has gained 37.92% over the last year.


Disclosure: No positions