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Katchum  

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  • Silver Miners Pushing Down AISC To Its Limit
    Sun, Mar. 22 AG, ANV, EXK 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver mining companies have succeeded in lowering AISC towards $15/ounce.
    • High silver premiums are evidence of difficulty in lowering AISC further.
    • Bottoming oil, reverse in U.S. dollar strength and continuing silver deficit will support higher silver prices.
  • The Arbitrage Opportunity In European Real Estate
    Thu, Mar. 19 IFEU 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The huge spread between European government bonds and property yields support higher real estate prices.
    • ECB quantitative easing will keep mortgage rates low.
    • The declining unemployment rate in the Eurozone supports the housing market.
  • Buying The Bottom In Oil: 3 Indicators
    Thu, Jan. 15 USO, OIL, UCO 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil has bottomed out as we have moved into steep contango.
    • U.S. supply is going to drop rapidly in a few months. Chinese demand is coming up.
    • The Federal Reserve could start QE4 in 2016 which will support higher oil prices.
  • Ministry Of Finance Japan Approves 2015 Budget: The Trend Is Actually Improving
    Wed, Jan. 14 DXJ, EWJ, FXY Comment!

    Summary

    • Japanese budget, trade and current account are improving.
    • Japanese monetary policy puts downward pressure on bond yields, yen and supported Japanese stock market.
    • Interest payments are projected to be flat.
  • Greece Bond Market Inversion Has Started
    Dec. 26, 2014 EU, GREK 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The Greek bond yield curve is inverting.
    • The Greek bond and stock market action is similar to what happened in 2010-2012.
    • Investors are flocking into safe haven bonds in other countries.
  • Palm Oil: The Next Best Investment
    Dec. 21, 2014 OIL, SISAF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Palm oil price declined due to the price drop in crude oil and soybean oil.
    • Chinese and Indian demand is still robust.
    • Agriculture and potash prices are bottoming out.
  • Insatiable Demand For Gold And Silver From Both East And West
    Nov. 10, 2014 GLD, SLV, IAU 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The sell-off in gold and silver has sparked physical demand for gold and silver for both the East and the West.
    • Gold and Silver premiums are going through the roof.
    • The price manipulation in paper gold and paper silver is originated from the yen carry trade.
  • The Stock Market Will Turn When You Least Expect It
    Oct. 16, 2014 CLR, GLD, DIA 17 Comments

    Summary

    • The past few weeks have introduced an avalanche of bad economic news.
    • Gold has benefited from a rising VIX and fear index, while oil goes down.
    • Equities are correcting due to political events, the end of QE3 and end of buybacks.
  • The Real Picture Beneath The Strong Jobs Numbers
    Oct. 9, 2014 SPY, QQQ, DIA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The strong jobs numbers are not as strong as they seem.
    • A lot of bad economic news is ignored by the media.
    • The domestic market in the U.S. is already seeing a decline.
  • Which Gold Miner To Choose Based On AISC
    Oct. 8, 2014 AEM, ANV, CROCF 5 Comments

    Summary

    • AISC for gold mining has come down significantly.
    • The higher the AISC of the gold mine, the higher the leverage.
    • Silver is by far much more undervalued than gold based on the AISC numbers.
  • Heavy Demand Appears In Gold And Silver
    Sep. 29, 2014 SLV, GLD 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold and silver see heavy shorting.
    • Gold and silver demand surges.
    • Gold and silver premiums rebound.
  • Which Silver Miner To Choose Based On AISC
    Sep. 24, 2014 AG, ASM, EXK 12 Comments

    Summary

    • All-in sustaining costs have been coming down for silver miners.
    • Due to a low silver price, it is recommended to mitigate risks by choosing low AISC.
    • Leverage can be found in silver miners with high AISC.
  • LBMA Might Stop Reporting GOFO Rates
    Sep. 10, 2014 GLD, BAR, IAU 3 Comments

    Summary

    • From September 22, the London Bullion Market Association said its members would no longer supply price data for forward curves.
    • GOFO rates and gold premiums are highly correlated.
    • GOFO rates are at record lows, indicating a bottom in gold price.
  • All You Need To Know About ECB's Quantitative Easing
    Aug. 29, 2014 TLT, FXE, UUP 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Eurozone's excess liquidity is drying up.
    • ECB QE is expected from Q4 2014.
    • Euro and Eurobonds are a sell.
  • Market Outlook For The Coming Months: Stocks, Bonds And Gold
    Aug. 25, 2014 VTI, SCHB, ITOT 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. stock market could see a significant correction based on overextended valuations.
    • The U.S. bond market benefits from a strengthening U.S. dollar and safe haven status.
    • The precious metals market benefits from low bond yields and emerging inflation.
  • Now Is The Time To Profit From The Surge In Zinc Price
    Jul. 25, 2014 NYRSF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Zinc mine closures will disrupt supply.
    • China demand is robust.
    • Nyrstar is a good candidate to leverage on the rising zinc price.
  • The 2015 Recession Is Coming Based On Narrowing Yield Spread
    Jul. 18, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 13 Comments

    Summary

    • A narrowing yield spread triggers a recession.
    • Long term and mid term yields to intersect in 2015.
    • The Federal Reserve will need to increase interest rates in 2015.
  • 5 Signs Of Inflation Presenting Themselves At Your Doorstep
    Jul. 6, 2014 GLD, SLV 16 Comments

    Summary

    • High deficits and debt levels are incentives for creating inflation.
    • Governments exacerbate inflation.
    • There are many signs of inflation in the U.S.
  • Time To Turn Bullish On Copper Again?
    May. 26, 2014 COPX, CU, CUPM 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Copper goes into backwardation indicating price strength.
    • LME copper stock hits multi-year lows indicating tightening supply.
    • China growth concerns are priced in.
  • The Arbitrage Opportunity In Agriculture
    May. 7, 2014 POT, AGRO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Potash prices have bottomed out.
    • Higher food and lower potash prices will benefit farmers.
    • Adecoagro poised to benefit from arbitrage in agricultural space.
  • China Slowdown Will Trigger Black Swan Event
    Apr. 12, 2014 CYB, GLD, DIA 57 Comments

    Summary

    • There is a lot of evidence of a China slowdown taking place.
    • A Black Swan event is about to bring down the U.S. stock market.
    • Gold will be the safe haven during a market sell-off.
  • India Set To Import Twice As Much Gold
    Mar. 24, 2014 GLD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • 5 private sector banks in India are allowed to import gold.
    • Indian gold premiums set to fall.
    • Gold Supply is subdued as ETF outflows and recycling drops.
  • Japanese Stock Market Will Underperform
    Mar. 18, 2014 EWV 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Japanese bond yields and dividend yields are converging.
    • Japan's dire fiscal situation is a drag on Japanese stocks.
    • Japanese declining consumer confidence is a leading indicator for a drop in the Japanese stock market.
  • Palladium On The Verge Of A Break Out
    Mar. 5, 2014 PALL 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Palladium price fundamentals have been growing stronger and stronger.
    • A possible catalyst has emerged due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia.
    • Russian palladium stockpiles are depleted.
  • Emerging Market Currency Devaluation Will Mark End Of Tapering
    Feb. 17, 2014 VWO 31 Comments
  • The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation In Japan
    Jan. 16, 2014 FXY, EWJ 45 Comments
  • Start 2014 With An Opportunity In Vietnam
    Dec. 31, 2013 VCVOF, VNM 26 Comments
  • Consider Emerging Market Stocks In 2014
    Dec. 30, 2013 EEM, DOG, DRYS 10 Comments
  • An Analysis On The All-In Sustaining Cash Cost Of Gold Mines
    Nov. 25, 2013 ABX, GDX, NEM 28 Comments
  • People's Bank Of China Announces End Of U.S. Treasury Buying
    Nov. 22, 2013 CYB 108 Comments
  • London Metal Exchange Reduces Waiting Time For Storage Once Again
    Nov. 20, 2013 CU, JJC 2 Comments
  • 5 Reasons Why Gold Prices Are Bottoming Out Now
    Nov. 4, 2013 GLD, IAU, PHYS 111 Comments