Katchum

Contrarian, arbitrage, commodities, gold & precious metals
Katchum
Contrarian, arbitrage, commodities, gold & precious metals
Contributor since: 2012
Does Mexico actually allow lower oil to be priced in? Aren't they keeping oil prices high?
Nice catch, the third chart is probably wrong.
Looks like this rate hike meme might not happen at all, it would take away all liquidity and crash stock markets. I seriously doubt a rate hike will be done deal. If Yellen does nothing, I think macro economic conditions would slowly deteriorate, like we already see today. The dollar would slowly rise up, until stock markets begin to crash down. Either way, stocks will go down, unless of course Yellen does QE4.
Apparently yes, a new article says a 0.25% hike would be equivalent to a reverse QE2.
http://bit.ly/1jC24ff
Considering the 30 year at 3%, I would say 1%, 0.25% is nothing.
Apple may have a lot of cash in the 200 billion, but only a small fraction of that cash is domestic in the 20 billion. They will probably use domestic cash to do buybacks. Because foreign cash would have 35% tax rate on it. Also they issued a lot of debt to fund buybacks. This year 30 billion.
Fed of course doesn't want a crash, but I feel that Janet has lost control. M1 is already falling and we can not even see positive inflation. If no QE is announced soon, things are getting worse.
Well, we had QE in 2009 too and precious metals were doing pretty well. Now with such high valuations on stocks I'm not sure stocks would do as well today as in 2009.
Will be countered by foreign reserve selling.
If the company doesn't report on the actual non-GAAP AISC, I hesitate in mentioning the company.
I don't expect that GLD physical stock levels will ever decline again as COMEX registered gold is at historic lows. There is no physical gold left.
I'm wondering why GLD saw such a large increase in gold stock tonnage. 23 tonnes were bought in two days. Anything to do with this SNB decision? Gold short covering?
I also don't know when, but you have: technical analysis (not yet ok to buy), fundamental analysis (not yet: demand is still lower than supply), catalyst (no catalyst yet). So: wait.
This is counterintuitive, the Eurozone has the largest surplus at this moment in time and still these investors go into the U.S. dollar. Let's wait a few months to see what happens.
You and I are equal novices. :) Well, I can't find a report about the current situation, but I assume we are in the same situation because yield curves are similar 3 years ago. Maybe this is matter for a new correlation. If you find it, tell me.
First of all, there was a lot more short term debt than long term debt in Greece. See here for charts: http://bit.ly/1F9MOzu
Page 14.
Operation twist was selling short term bonds and buying long term bonds. Making long term yields even lower so that the housing market has lower loan yields. Why couldn't Greece do the reverse operation twist? Because there was too much short term debt.
Didn't the default on debt 2 years ago happen on low maturities as they came due? They had to make a haircut and swap bonds for lower interest rates and higher maturities. That's why low maturity bonds are riskier than the high maturity bonds when default is near. The losses on low maturities were much higher than the losses on high maturities. And after the restructuring at least the debt burden is slashed.
And, of course Greece is a mess and recession is near, but we also need to pay attention to catalysts in the political space.
Interesting fact. But still, olive oil has a very low yield (around the same as soybean oil). Palm oil needs much less hectares of land to make the same amount of oil. You need 10 times as much ground to make the same amount of olive oil, instead of palm oil. Palm oil is never going to go away, it is too efficient.
Copper is to be avoided like the plague. Stock levels will come up again, backwardation will return to contango and copper prices will plunge.
http://bit.ly/16AyqAV
That would be a primer, the U.S. hasn't bought any gold in 50 years.
Everyone thinks Janet Yellen is so dovish, but reality is that she has proven to keep her word on tapering. Let's let the market correct itself, see what happens and then act.
And moreover, the strong jobs numbers are probably caused because extended unemployment benefits ended in 2014. Before 2014, people wouldn't work because they got these extended unemployment benefits, which created higher wage pressures for employers. And less vacancies/jobs as a result. Now that extended unemployment benefits have ceased, people will need to take a job because their benefits just ran out.
I think it's time for an update...
In current market circumstances, SAU would be very risky at the moment. Its market cap is much lower than the initial capital costs for the project, which has a good 24% IRR. I'm just a bit worried about how they will get the money. Today you should invest in the profitable mines, not in speculative development companies.
Hecla has a lot of base metals, they sure do help reducing costs. For example if the zinc price goes up, that will help them a lot. I heard zinc is even rarer than silver going forward.
When you compare countries over the world, you can just find that the price to rent ratio is very high in Belgium. Also tax reforms are coming now as less subsidizing of home buyers will make housing less affordable in the future. Villa prices have come down substantially today.
Yes, it's amazing that they manage to produce higher revenues and higher production even at lower silver prices (just to make up on the lower margins). I would expect supply to decrease instead of increase, but the contradictory reality is a higher supply. So the silver price will keep decreasing until they finally stop producing.
James from this article claims that AISC is $8/ounce. I'm doubting the validity of that number. Can you confirm? http://seekingalpha.co...
Thanks for the number, will add that. I'm just wondering what's behind the big drop in AISC. Are you sure you're not just giving the cash cost number? Anyway, I updated it.
Why doesn't China buy its silver from London and sell it at a 11% premium in China? Just remove the import tax and bulk ship it over.
Any idea why China's silver premium is at a high of 11%?
Good call about the issuance, investors are reacting positively on this news today.
I'm not so sure about what will happen, but when the euro goes down (Goldman Sachs slashed it to 1.20 just now) then any eurobonds won't do well. But European stocks will be very good.
Also, deposits at the European banks will increase due to the money printing.