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Katchum

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  • China Slowdown Will Trigger Black Swan Event [View article]
    This is a very interesting one. Apparently the contango curve is correlated to the LME stock level. So depressed LME stock levels coincide with copper in backwardation. And we know that copper will decline when copper goes from backwardation to contango (or from low LME stock levels to high stock levels).
    Apr 12 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Slowdown Will Trigger Black Swan Event [View article]
    I tried to limit it, but actually yes... ;)
    Apr 12 04:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Slowdown Will Trigger Black Swan Event [View article]
    They are so big that they could sell everything to keep the yuan floating. But there are a lot of trust assets which could start defaulting. I don't know what is going to happen.
    Apr 12 04:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • COMEX Registered Gold Increase Points To GLD ETF Inflows [View instapost]
    Maybe because they are too small to put big money in? Unless you want dilution. You get diluted every now and then in PHYS.
    Apr 2 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Premiums Down [View instapost]
    Premiums have come up a bit now, wait a little bit longer and you can start buying again.
    Mar 25 05:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Set To Import Twice As Much Gold [View article]
    I agree that the commercials are pretty short now and premiums are very low. Lease rates also very low with rising GOFO rates. China buying less at the SGE. So a dip in gold is very likely. But you also need to look at the bigger picture in a longer time frame.
    Mar 25 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Premiums Down [View instapost]
    If high premiums mean that there is a shortage because everyone buys, then low premiums mean that nobody is interested in buying and that prices are too high.

    You could say that when nobody is buying then people will come in to buy, which marks a bottom...

    The reality though is, that when premiums are low, then the price will go down. Look at the second chart.
    Mar 20 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese Stock Market Will Underperform [View article]
    Normally stocks are riskier than bonds, so the yields are higher. But sometimes it's the other way as you state.

    Weak currencies can give higher exports in that currency, but what is it worth if your currency crashes. Besides, imports will be costlier with a weak currency.

    I think correlations can be a good indicator, if it doesn't match over long periods, at least it matches in the shorter time frame which is what traders look at.
    Mar 18 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palladium On The Verge Of A Break Out [View article]
    Deficit currently = 740000 ounces
    A year later: deficit = 1 million ounces
    Currently 8 million ounces of demand
    1/8 = 12.5%

    If supply and demand stays the same (which it is not), to close the deficit gap you would at least need a (100/(1-12.5%)) - 100 = 14.3% increase in palladium price to decrease the demand with 12.5%.

    So I would sell at around 10% profit.
    Mar 6 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deposits Over Loans: Excess Reserves [View instapost]
    The narrowing can be the result of more bank lending which pushes market interest rates down to the target interest rate.
    Feb 22 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick, Avino Silver Is Re-Rating! [View article]
    What's the problem, it's an at the market sale. Can only be positive. It means investors are interested in the company.
    Feb 21 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belgium Buys U.S. Treasuries That Nobody Wants [View instapost]
    What do you mean by agent? I don't have knowledge about these things. Maybe you can elaborate about this, which is very appreciated.
    Feb 20 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Leverage In COMEX Silver Is About To Explode [View instapost]
    Well, for silver we aren't at extremes just yet, because central banks aren't interested in silver. But for gold, we already see that the leverage bubble has popped. The record leverage has now come down and open interest is also coming down for gold, not for silver yet though.

    As leverage is now coming down for gold, the record amount of shorts (CFTC reports) will need to cover as the downtrend in gold will reverse. This of course will pull up silver higher as gold and silver are 80% correlated.

    There is a possibility of a COMEX default and LBMA default as gold gets into backwardation and shorts fail to deliver. When this default happens, we will see skyrocketing gold prices to $2000/ounce and the exchanges will go to the east. As Rick Rule calls it: "witnessing a religious experience (for the shorts)".

    All of this will be catalyzed by a decline in the equity markets (from which Soros protected himself already), where all investors will switch their equities for gold.
    Feb 17 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Effect Of India Solar Plant Project On Silver Price [View instapost]
    Thanks for the info!
    Feb 17 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Effect Of India Solar Plant Project On Silver Price [View instapost]
    Is there a 31 GW plant?

    If you are correct, that means the efficiency of solar panels for power generation is much higher than normal panels. Then this whole calculation is wrong.
    Feb 17 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
518 Comments
218 Likes