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  • Junk Bond Market Forecasts A Looming Stock Market Crash [View article]
    Apple may have a lot of cash in the 200 billion, but only a small fraction of that cash is domestic in the 20 billion. They will probably use domestic cash to do buybacks. Because foreign cash would have 35% tax rate on it. Also they issued a lot of debt to fund buybacks. This year 30 billion.

    Fed of course doesn't want a crash, but I feel that Janet has lost control. M1 is already falling and we can not even see positive inflation. If no QE is announced soon, things are getting worse.
    Nov 26, 2015. 08:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Dow Jones Bottoming Out Or Crashing? [View article]
    Well, we had QE in 2009 too and precious metals were doing pretty well. Now with such high valuations on stocks I'm not sure stocks would do as well today as in 2009.
    Sep 4, 2015. 03:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Dow Jones Bottoming Out Or Crashing? [View article]
    Will be countered by foreign reserve selling.
    Sep 2, 2015. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Miners Pushing Down AISC To Its Limit [View article]
    If the company doesn't report on the actual non-GAAP AISC, I hesitate in mentioning the company.
    Mar 22, 2015. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Data Suggests Gold Supply Could Be In Major Deficit In 2015 [View article]
    I don't expect that GLD physical stock levels will ever decline again as COMEX registered gold is at historic lows. There is no physical gold left.
    Feb 21, 2015. 04:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Random Thoughts On The SNB FX Move [View article]
    I'm wondering why GLD saw such a large increase in gold stock tonnage. 23 tonnes were bought in two days. Anything to do with this SNB decision? Gold short covering?
    Jan 17, 2015. 04:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying The Bottom In Oil: 3 Indicators [View article]
    I also don't know when, but you have: technical analysis (not yet ok to buy), fundamental analysis (not yet: demand is still lower than supply), catalyst (no catalyst yet). So: wait.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar [View article]
    This is counterintuitive, the Eurozone has the largest surplus at this moment in time and still these investors go into the U.S. dollar. Let's wait a few months to see what happens.
    Jan 6, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bond Market Inversion Has Started [View article]
    You and I are equal novices. :) Well, I can't find a report about the current situation, but I assume we are in the same situation because yield curves are similar 3 years ago. Maybe this is matter for a new correlation. If you find it, tell me.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bond Market Inversion Has Started [View article]
    First of all, there was a lot more short term debt than long term debt in Greece. See here for charts:
    Page 14.

    Operation twist was selling short term bonds and buying long term bonds. Making long term yields even lower so that the housing market has lower loan yields. Why couldn't Greece do the reverse operation twist? Because there was too much short term debt.
    Jan 5, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bond Market Inversion Has Started [View article]
    Didn't the default on debt 2 years ago happen on low maturities as they came due? They had to make a haircut and swap bonds for lower interest rates and higher maturities. That's why low maturity bonds are riskier than the high maturity bonds when default is near. The losses on low maturities were much higher than the losses on high maturities. And after the restructuring at least the debt burden is slashed.

    And, of course Greece is a mess and recession is near, but we also need to pay attention to catalysts in the political space.
    Jan 4, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palm Oil: The Next Best Investment [View article]
    Interesting fact. But still, olive oil has a very low yield (around the same as soybean oil). Palm oil needs much less hectares of land to make the same amount of oil. You need 10 times as much ground to make the same amount of olive oil, instead of palm oil. Palm oil is never going to go away, it is too efficient.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisit Capstone Mining When Copper Prices Recover [View article]
    Copper is to be avoided like the plague. Stock levels will come up again, backwardation will return to contango and copper prices will plunge.
    Dec 19, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insatiable Demand For Gold And Silver From Both East And West [View article]
    That would be a primer, the U.S. hasn't bought any gold in 50 years.
    Nov 11, 2014. 01:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Will Turn When You Least Expect It [View article]
    Everyone thinks Janet Yellen is so dovish, but reality is that she has proven to keep her word on tapering. Let's let the market correct itself, see what happens and then act.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment