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Katchum  

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  • Latest Data Suggests Gold Supply Could Be In Major Deficit In 2015 [View article]
    I don't expect that GLD physical stock levels will ever decline again as COMEX registered gold is at historic lows. There is no physical gold left.
    Feb 21, 2015. 04:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Random Thoughts On The SNB FX Move [View article]
    I'm wondering why GLD saw such a large increase in gold stock tonnage. 23 tonnes were bought in two days. Anything to do with this SNB decision? Gold short covering?
    Jan 17, 2015. 04:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying The Bottom In Oil: 3 Indicators [View article]
    I also don't know when, but you have: technical analysis (not yet ok to buy), fundamental analysis (not yet: demand is still lower than supply), catalyst (no catalyst yet). So: wait.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar [View article]
    This is counterintuitive, the Eurozone has the largest surplus at this moment in time and still these investors go into the U.S. dollar. Let's wait a few months to see what happens.
    Jan 6, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bond Market Inversion Has Started [View article]
    You and I are equal novices. :) Well, I can't find a report about the current situation, but I assume we are in the same situation because yield curves are similar 3 years ago. Maybe this is matter for a new correlation. If you find it, tell me.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bond Market Inversion Has Started [View article]
    First of all, there was a lot more short term debt than long term debt in Greece. See here for charts: http://bit.ly/1F9MOzu
    Page 14.

    Operation twist was selling short term bonds and buying long term bonds. Making long term yields even lower so that the housing market has lower loan yields. Why couldn't Greece do the reverse operation twist? Because there was too much short term debt.
    Jan 5, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bond Market Inversion Has Started [View article]
    Didn't the default on debt 2 years ago happen on low maturities as they came due? They had to make a haircut and swap bonds for lower interest rates and higher maturities. That's why low maturity bonds are riskier than the high maturity bonds when default is near. The losses on low maturities were much higher than the losses on high maturities. And after the restructuring at least the debt burden is slashed.

    And, of course Greece is a mess and recession is near, but we also need to pay attention to catalysts in the political space.
    Jan 4, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Palm Oil: The Next Best Investment [View article]
    Interesting fact. But still, olive oil has a very low yield (around the same as soybean oil). Palm oil needs much less hectares of land to make the same amount of oil. You need 10 times as much ground to make the same amount of olive oil, instead of palm oil. Palm oil is never going to go away, it is too efficient.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisit Capstone Mining When Copper Prices Recover [View article]
    Copper is to be avoided like the plague. Stock levels will come up again, backwardation will return to contango and copper prices will plunge.
    http://bit.ly/16AyqAV
    Dec 19, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insatiable Demand For Gold And Silver From Both East And West [View article]
    That would be a primer, the U.S. hasn't bought any gold in 50 years.
    Nov 11, 2014. 01:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Will Turn When You Least Expect It [View article]
    Everyone thinks Janet Yellen is so dovish, but reality is that she has proven to keep her word on tapering. Let's let the market correct itself, see what happens and then act.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Picture Beneath The Strong Jobs Numbers [View article]
    And moreover, the strong jobs numbers are probably caused because extended unemployment benefits ended in 2014. Before 2014, people wouldn't work because they got these extended unemployment benefits, which created higher wage pressures for employers. And less vacancies/jobs as a result. Now that extended unemployment benefits have ceased, people will need to take a job because their benefits just ran out.
    Oct 10, 2014. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Money Index: Prepare For A Crash [View instapost]
    I think it's time for an update...
    Oct 10, 2014. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Gold Miner To Choose Based On AISC [View article]
    In current market circumstances, SAU would be very risky at the moment. Its market cap is much lower than the initial capital costs for the project, which has a good 24% IRR. I'm just a bit worried about how they will get the money. Today you should invest in the profitable mines, not in speculative development companies.
    Oct 8, 2014. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Silver Miner To Choose Based On AISC [View article]
    Hecla has a lot of base metals, they sure do help reducing costs. For example if the zinc price goes up, that will help them a lot. I heard zinc is even rarer than silver going forward.
    Sep 25, 2014. 03:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
555 Comments
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