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Albert Sung is the author of Correlation Economics, monitoring breaking economic news on a day to day basis. He started investing in 2008 because of the economic crisis and holds a masters degree in chemical engineering. Previously, he worked several years as a process engineer at Ashland, a... More
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Correlation Economics
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  • Harvey Organ: Gold Could Go To 10000 USD/Ounce Overnight In December 2014

    Very interesting development is that at this rate, China will run out of silver in the next two months.

    (click to enlarge)

    That's why we see the 11% premium at Shanghai.

    I can't predict what will happen when the first chart goes to zero, but it will be bullish for silver.

    Harvey Organ explains what can happen when China runs out of silver. A gold price spike to 10000 USD/ounce overnight in December 2014. Silver will go to 200 USD/ounce. I'm of course very skeptical about this. But the more reason to monitor the Shanghai silver vaults.

    If you want to monitor the weekly inventory of silver at the Shanghai Exchange, you can go here.

    Click on "weekly inventory" (by the way, these are real physical inventories, not imaginary inventories from the LBMA).

    For example: 5-Sep-2014: Inventory of silver is 93304 kg.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: GLD, SLV
    Sep 10 12:19 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Hello, 10% Silver Premium

    The Shanghai silver premium has almost reached 10% over the weekend.

    (click to enlarge)

    Managed money shorts are again at highs in silver.

    I think it's safe to say now that silver (NYSEARCA:PSLV) (NYSEARCA:SLV) is the best buy at this moment.

    Disclosure: The author is long PSLV.

    Tags: SLV, PSLV
    Sep 02 2:37 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Marc Faber's New Recommendation: The Case For Hong Kong Stocks

    This week, Marc Faber came in with a new recommendation. He is advising investors to invest in Hong Kong stocks as we can see in this interview with CNBC. The reason for that is because we see a technical breakout on the upside for China. As a result also the Hong Kong stock market is up. See chart of the Hang Seng Index below from Google Finance.

    (click to enlarge)

    Now why is China doing so well? I have already hinted on that in this article. Basically, we see many signs of a recovery in China. First off, the PMI had surged to 52 after several months if not years of decline. A surging PMI indicates that GDP growth is accelerating. And the evidence of an accelerated growth in GDP can also be seen in the Chinese power consumption numbers (chart below created by Correlation Economics). As our correlation shows, the rising power consumption numbers go hand in hand with GDP growth.

    Next on, this China GDP growth translates itself into a positive development in the commodities market. The zinc and copper prices for example have bottomed out just recently. Also China and Hong Kong real estate have been bottoming out. I have been recommending Tai Cheung Holdings here, which has seen a nice 10% return.

    To put some more evidence on display, we can see that the CRB Commodity index has seen a surge since the start of 2014, indicating a recovery in commodity prices. See chart below from Bloomberg.

    (click to enlarge)

    And last but certainly not least we have a very important development in the currency market. Not only has the Chinese yuan stopped dropping against the U.S. dollar. The Hong Kong dollar is said to finally de-peg from the U.S. dollar, which will boost Hong Kong stocks even more.

    If U.S. investors want to buy Hong Kong stocks, I recommend Hang Seng Bank (OTCPK:HSNGY), because this bank is based in Hong Kong and is highly correlated to the Hang Seng Index. And while you wait for the rise, you get to be paid a handsome dividend of 4%.

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: HSNGY, long-ideas
    Jul 31 1:12 PM | Link | Comment!
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