Katchum's Instablog Albert Sung is the author of the Katchum Macro-Economic Blog, monitoring breaking economic news on a day to day basis. He started investing in 2008 because of the economic crisis and holds a masters degree in chemical engineering. Previously, he worked several years as a process engineer at Ashland, a competitor of Dow Chemical. Today, he works as a regulatory compliance consultant at J&J, but his real passion will stay in macro-economics. His experience in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry allows him to monitor the economy from a process engineering standpoint, analyzing macro-economic charts, correlations and trends. Katchum http://seekingalpha.com/author/katchum/instablog COMEX Adds Odd Note In Warehouse Depository Stock Report http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/1922071-comex-adds-odd-note-in-warehouse-depository-stock-report?source=feed 1922071 While updating my COMEX charts I found something odd.

"The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.

For questions regarding this report please email Registrar@cmegroup.com or call (312) 341-3370."

I wonder why they put that in their reports...

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]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 14:53:30 -0400 While updating my COMEX charts I found something odd.

"The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.

For questions regarding this report please email Registrar@cmegroup.com or call (312) 341-3370."

I wonder why they put that in their reports...

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]]> gld Shanghai Gold Premium Hits New High http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/1887251-shanghai-gold-premium-hits-new-high?source=feed 1887251 One of the most important features of the Katchum Macro-Economic Blog is that you get real time alerts on important data.

One of those data is the premium I see on the Shanghai precious metals market. And today we see a huge increase in premium in gold (Chart 2). Gold premiums to London bullion price have reached 2.6%, the highest since I monitored it. Silver premiums also shot up to 3.8% (Chart 1).

That's a bullish sign.

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Chart 1: Silver Premium Shanghai to London

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Chart 2: Gold Premium Shanghai to London

]]> Thu, 23 May 2013 11:49:53 -0400 One of the most important features of the Katchum Macro-Economic Blog is that you get real time alerts on important data.

One of those data is the premium I see on the Shanghai precious metals market. And today we see a huge increase in premium in gold (Chart 2). Gold premiums to London bullion price have reached 2.6%, the highest since I monitored it. Silver premiums also shot up to 3.8% (Chart 1).

That's a bullish sign.

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Chart 1: Silver Premium Shanghai to London

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Chart 2: Gold Premium Shanghai to London

]]> gld slv Disconnect Between Selling Price Of Physical Silver And Paper Silver http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/1874771-disconnect-between-selling-price-of-physical-silver-and-paper-silver?source=feed 1874771 As the paper silver (SLV) keeps falling (blue chart), some miners aren't willing to reduce their selling price (red chart) on their silver bullion.

This lead to a huge disconnect between paper and physical silver of $5.5/ounce, or a 25% premium!

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Chart 1: Disconnect between Physical Silver and Paper Silver at First Majestic Silver Corp

Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 10:32:36 -0400 As the paper silver (SLV) keeps falling (blue chart), some miners aren't willing to reduce their selling price (red chart) on their silver bullion.

This lead to a huge disconnect between paper and physical silver of $5.5/ounce, or a 25% premium!

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Chart 1: Disconnect between Physical Silver and Paper Silver at First Majestic Silver Corp

Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

]]> slv The Effect Of Gold ETF's On The Gold Price http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/1870781-the-effect-of-gold-etf-s-on-the-gold-price?source=feed 1870781 As demand is now being dictated for a part by the ETF's, we need to pay attention to what is happening in the trusts. Are they unloading their gold? Because if they keep unloading their gold, the demand from ETF's is going to decline, which has a negative impact on the gold price. This is the theory of supply and demand.

You can monitor this chart daily at the SPDR gold trust site:

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/historical-data/

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Chart 1: SPDR Gold Trust: Units in the Trust (Red Chart, right axis)

As I indicated here, ETF's were the largest sellers in gold, resulting in a 13% decline in the demand for gold. I cannot stress how important it is that ETF's keep buying gold. If they don't buy, like what happened starting in 2013, then the price of gold will decline. The great difference between 2013 and 2008 is that in 2008, ETF's were massive buyers of gold, while today they are massive sellers. Keep watching this trend. If it reverses, you can confidently start buying precious metals.

Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

]]> Sat, 18 May 2013 08:20:39 -0400 As demand is now being dictated for a part by the ETF's, we need to pay attention to what is happening in the trusts. Are they unloading their gold? Because if they keep unloading their gold, the demand from ETF's is going to decline, which has a negative impact on the gold price. This is the theory of supply and demand.

You can monitor this chart daily at the SPDR gold trust site:

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/historical-data/

(click to enlarge)

Chart 1: SPDR Gold Trust: Units in the Trust (Red Chart, right axis)

As I indicated here, ETF's were the largest sellers in gold, resulting in a 13% decline in the demand for gold. I cannot stress how important it is that ETF's keep buying gold. If they don't buy, like what happened starting in 2013, then the price of gold will decline. The great difference between 2013 and 2008 is that in 2008, ETF's were massive buyers of gold, while today they are massive sellers. Keep watching this trend. If it reverses, you can confidently start buying precious metals.

Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

]]> gld Red Alert In Gold Lease Rates http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/1844311-red-alert-in-gold-lease-rates?source=feed 1844311 I have become very bullish lately on silver and was already bullish on gold.

But the following chart makes me ultimately bullish. We see the biggest increase in gold lease rates as of yesterday and we have seen this before. In 2008, the gold lease rates started to spike upwards, which meant gold was in short supply. It also meant that the "interest" to hold gold was going up, just like the "interest" on your cash is going up.

This ultimately means that the world is valuing gold at a higher interest rate and the central banks are demanding their gold back from the bullion banks.

We are in for a huge upside move if you ask me.

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Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 04:13:21 -0400 I have become very bullish lately on silver and was already bullish on gold.

But the following chart makes me ultimately bullish. We see the biggest increase in gold lease rates as of yesterday and we have seen this before. In 2008, the gold lease rates started to spike upwards, which meant gold was in short supply. It also meant that the "interest" to hold gold was going up, just like the "interest" on your cash is going up.

This ultimately means that the world is valuing gold at a higher interest rate and the central banks are demanding their gold back from the bullion banks.

We are in for a huge upside move if you ask me.

(click to enlarge)

Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

]]> gld China Gold Imports From Hong Kong Hit Record High In March 2013 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/1833531-china-gold-imports-from-hong-kong-hit-record-high-in-march-2013?source=feed 1833531 An update on the China Gold Imports from Hong Kong has just been put out on Bloomberg. It is amazing, how much they are buying, imports more than doubled.

http://katchum.blogspot.be/2013/04/china-gold-imports-from-hk.html

And the thing is, the massive drop in the gold price in April is not even counted in the numbers yet.

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Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 11:57:02 -0400 An update on the China Gold Imports from Hong Kong has just been put out on Bloomberg. It is amazing, how much they are buying, imports more than doubled.

http://katchum.blogspot.be/2013/04/china-gold-imports-from-hk.html

And the thing is, the massive drop in the gold price in April is not even counted in the numbers yet.

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Disclosure: I am long [[AGQ]].

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