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Kay McDonald

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  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    If you want to keep up with my updates, read my blog bigpictureagriculture..../

    The fact is Jim Rogers (note that its Rogers, not Rodgers) WAS telling the world it was short of grain when it was not. The CNBC video and the supply numbers were clear evidence.

    Ag stocks are in constant flux. Corn ethanol policy is making coarse grain numbers look weak at the present. Do you know when that policy expires?

    In Ireland, farmland has fallen severely, nearly 50%, in fact. Hint: There are some macro economic concerns in this country which might set off some alarm bells when you read that. As I just posted on my blog, farm loan delinquencies are at a 17-yr high right now. Also, if you've been paying attention there are more and more high level analysts saying what I said first in this post. It's all been on my blog.

    Like I disclosed, I have no positions in any of this as I view them far too risky.
    Oct 17, 2010. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update on the Deflating Commercial Real Estate Bubble [View article]
    I have seen reports that suggest the delinquency rate is much higher than 10%, but I am using the Fed's report here.

    "While some are probably over-leveraged, many are probably not."
    At a rate of 42% down overall, and looking at the time-frames of when the loans originated and when they come due, I suspect the vast majority are underwater.

    "If the banks want they can extend the terms during a recovery."
    This is true and is being done right now, but, you are assuming "a recovery" here. With GDP as low as it is, jobs numbers as poor as they are, and the deflationary threats evident today, it could be a long time down the road until we have that recovery.

    "The residential lending crisis will prove far worse on the banks than CRE" There's a big difference between the two, however. The length of the loans and the government's response and intervention in each area. I'm looking more at CRE as the straw that breaks the camel's back.

    I mostly agree with your last paragraph, too, but it is the 50% regional and smaller bank's lending to small businesses that I am concerned about.
    Jul 16, 2010. 04:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update on the Deflating Commercial Real Estate Bubble [View article]
    Thanks for the interesting report from Manhattan. The CMBS bonds may be doing well now, but what if we get that double dip? It all comes down to finding a bottom, and that will vary by region.
    Jul 16, 2010. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BIS Gold Swaps and China: Two Cases for Gold Bearishness [View article]
    "Although gold coins were once used, gold is so illiquid that it is not even considered to be a form of near money--though it is still widely thought of as a store of value. Since its price can fluctuate widely and unpredictably, it no longer serves well as a medium of exchange or as a unit of account. Also, storage, insurance and conversion costs for gold may arise."

    [Quote from Hoinsington's 2nd Quarterly Review:]

    Since my real interest is in the area of Ag commodities, I do love your image of the BIS swapping currency for hogs. And it might also make the most sense for those expecting the end of the world as we know it.
    Jul 12, 2010. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles: Toyota Tells the Unvarnished Truth [View article]
    John Peterson,
    A few months ago, I had the opportunity to hear Bill Reinert speak, who designed Toyota's Prius and heads their alternative transportation dept. He is undoubtedly the mastermind behind this whole post and subject which you are presenting here. I wrote a detailed description of his talk: financialnewsexpress.b... and received a personal response from him commending me on its accuracy. I have an enormous amount of respect for this man, who tells it like it is, seemingly to the detriment of Toyota, at times. He is as much of a realist in the corporate world and world of energy descent people that I am aware of (and I'm aware of quite a few having read on these issues for many years.) Being a realist also makes him quite a pessimist about our futures, the future of alternative transportation, political will on the subject, and environmental degradation on the way down. To me, he emanates common sense and is virtuous enough to go public with his statements.

    From his talk, as related to lithium batteries, he predicted that current government subsidization is in the process of producing an oversupply over these next few years and that is not even enough to bring the cost of production down.

    One surprise that I had from his talk was his positive view on fuel cell technology with the hope that it will get government support, which is what they are gearing towards by 2015.
    Jul 11, 2010. 01:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BIS Gold Swaps and China: Two Cases for Gold Bearishness [View article]
    My article was written nearly 24 hrs before SA published it.

    The updated story which you are citing is here:

    Also, whoever thinks that the deflationary conditions over the past two years have not affected commodity prices (comment above) needs to do their homework. Same going forward.
    Jul 10, 2010. 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Superweed Immunity to Monsanto Pesticide Means Opportunity for Competitors [View article]
    I appreciate your comment. Like we all know, this is a huge story. Your "19 weeds" resistant is probably way low, though. Some say within five years half of all weeds in the U.S. will be resistant to Roundup.

    According to this Reuters article,

    "More than 130 types of weeds have developed levels of herbicide resistance in more than 40 U.S. states, more resistant weeds than found in any other country, according to weed scientists."
    Jun 10, 2010. 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Superweed Immunity to Monsanto Pesticide Means Opportunity for Competitors [View article]
    Please be specific about which of my sentences were inaccurate and site references pointing me to the truth. When I read your comment, it was almost as if it was written for a different article entirely, not mine. I had no agenda when I wrote mine, but you appear to have one. SA changed my title from "Superweeds remove efficiencies from the Industrialized Agriculture System". Do you disagree?
    Jun 7, 2010. 09:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agricultural Commodities in Light of Peak Oil [View article]
    I do not take the time frame of the Olduvai graph at face value. But, I do take pride in the fact that, to my knowledge, I am the first SA contributor to post it. This post may have introduced some readers to the subject of PO, as there is a wide reading audience here. It is very doubtful that I will remember your comment in 2025, but I will always remember when I saw this graph for the first time. It makes one think, no matter what you believe the time frames are, or how you expect the extension to play out. It portrays a powerful message, one which scares some, and causes others to dismiss it as a joke.
    Feb 10, 2010. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grains: 2010's Most Compelling Commodity Speculation [View article]
    "Threatened by the long-term decline of crop yields, agricultural commodities are probably in the early stages of a secular bull market."

    What is that based upon? Yields have been going up.

    I recently wrote a part I

    and part II financialnewsexpress.b...

    stating the opposite of what you are saying. I know the contrarian viewpoint is always difficult to accept, but so far its been right. You never mention global macro economics, which may play out to be the number one factor affecting grain commodity prices going forward.

    Fact is, we are at a 7-8 year high in global grain stocks. Production in S. America is looking strong at this point. El Nino forecasts suggest very favorable conditions for US production again next year. I'm just not seeing what your bullishness is based upon.
    Feb 2, 2010. 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    Please note that if anyone is interested, I've done a follow-up, sort of a part 2, to this article which addresses some of the issues posed in the comments here using more data with more sources to conclude that global grain stocks are currently at an eight year high, plus much more: financialnewsexpress.b...
    Jan 30, 2010. 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perilous Practices of Public Pension Funds [View article]
    I read this WSJ article and have been watching this story unfold with amazement myself. So far all we see covered in MSM is the shortfalls in public and other large pensions with an assumption that the gaps need to be filled. By whom? By the other people who's pensions have contracted, of course. Talk about the media's use of the meme "populism"! This is only in its beginning stages. Wait until the next leg down in the market.
    Jan 29, 2010. 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    Wonderful comment and writing.

    On the sidebar of my blog, it says "Fridays are dedicated to agricultural economic news. Agriculture will again become a greater percent of our labor force and GDP, as we revert to a less affluent society, based upon our debt load and the decreased availability of fossil fuels in the not-so-distant future."

    I am into ag economic analysis only because of all the reasons you cite. Without economic incentives there will be no production.

    You have a wonderful analysis of the big picture and coming from the real world of ag, too. The only thing I see missing in what you wrote is that we have a huge amount of unnecessary corn production going on. Why? Today's ag policy. If we revert to real food on all of those productive acres as nations have less affluent capacity to be wasteful, that means more grain to feed the world. How this will play out, gently or catastrophically, I don't know. That depends on many things, complexity.
    Jan 24, 2010. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    Mark Anthony
    Who do you trust?
    I trust my own family farm. They are located in the Midwest. They experienced the terrible weather but yet came up with a bumper corn harvest in the end. It was a tough, but productive year. The drying costs and the waits in line at the elevators and the getting it out of the fields were no fun. But in the end = bumper crop.

    Jim Rogers has responded to this post but has not answered the grain global supply question which was the whole point of this post. I find that interesting and telling.

    The bottom line is the commodity traders have the best handle on the numbers and the trading values are weak. Isn't that so obvious, Mark? If they knew supplies were tight, numbers would be going through the roof, right? They are not.

    And I'm sorry. I'm not impressed with any of your sources. So the USDA is faulty. How do you know your sources aren't?
    Jan 24, 2010. 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    See below.
    Jan 22, 2010. 01:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment