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Kay McDonald

 
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  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    Jim
    Thanks.
    I wish that in your response you'd have addressed the main issue of this post, global grain stocks being the lowest they've been in decades. I'm open minded, just can't find sources which your team no doubt has much greater access to than I do. Do you discredit the USDA reports?
    Jan 22 01:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    Mark
    Thanks for your comment.
    I have reviewed your sources.

    You are trying to claim grain stocks are low based upon a global analytics article by Eric deCarbonnel dated Feb. 10, 2009. That is nearly a year ago. A whole growing season has taken place between that weather and the weather that has produced the current stocks.

    You tell me USDA data is unreliable and then you provide 2 links to USDA earlier-in-the-year wheat reports. (In my report I used the most recent USDA wheat report.)

    From what you've provided here I'm unconvinced, but would welcome more data and links from you, if you have them to make your case.

    I consult many news sources each week when compiling my Friday Ag news reports, and I cannot say that I have seen articles anywhere from any sources suggesting the dire shortages you think are everywhere. I'm not saying they can't happen a year from now, or two years from now.
    Jan 22 01:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    John
    Thanks for your GD comparison.
    This year cherries were destroyed to support producers. Right now the potato farmers want potatoes destroyed. Corn ethanol is basically a government subsidy program to destroy corn to support corn prices. Dairy stock has been destroyed this year, but not through a gov. program. Farmers do need policy to keep them in business, I just wish it were better policy, and not just vote-winning policy.
    Jan 21 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    Subsidyi
    Pigs do fly when a R. wins the Senate in MA.

    As for the ethanol subsidy being guaranteed - did you think the biodiesel subsidy would be allowed to expire? Granted, it may be reinstated retroactively, but Dr. Chu and this Pres are more "green" than recent administrations and understand some of the real fundamentals.

    The Iowa caucus will probably remain the first in the country, but that could also change.

    What about high oil prices? Will a cash strapped Congress raise the corn ethanol subsidy to double or triple what is now if oil prices climb when millions of unemployed Americans could use a jobs creation stimulus instead? My whole point is that we are in a time period of rapid change in governmental policy, so nothing is a given or risk-free in this environment.
    Jan 21 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Near a Peak in Farmland Prices? [View article]
    dvl and egg,
    You obviously both believe inflation is where we're headed. I don't have a crystal ball, and am still worried about getting past working out of this deflation we're in. Our government will take on more debt to further bail out our banks before this is over. The reality is, either way, we have become a much less affluent nation. If farm programs and ethanol subsidies get scaled back, plus higher inevitable property taxes go up on ag land, and perhaps fossil fuel costs go up, you may see the ever squeezed farmer eek out less of a profit. And then, land will go down in value. The fact is there is a lot of overproduction of corn and soy in this country due to farm policy and the time may come that that policy changes. Then what happens to farmland prices? Times are too uncertain right now to make anything a "given". If, on the other hand, we are headed for inflation, right now could indeed, be a good time to buy ag land because interest rates are relatively low.
    Nov 26 01:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Muddy Economic Picture [View article]
    Thanks, everyone for your good comments. Though I kept the article on the somewhat neutral side, I agree with comments here about the ominous conditions looming in the banks and unemployment numbers which accompany this massive deleveraging, and I definitely agree about the political failings. They have caused this. They have prevented us from fixing things. They loom large in our future and could bring us down eventually, if not this time. That's a whole 'nother subject for a whole 'nother day. To Bob, also, this is supposedly a democracy, though a corrupted one, so we have to blame ourselves and we the people for allowing it to happen to some extent. Politicians pay attention to squeaky wheels and to poll numbers. Don't get me started on complacency, as it's one of my favorite subjects!
    Nov 19 09:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Erosion in the M2:M1 Relationship and the Burgeoning Eurodollar Bubble [View article]
    Romeo
    Thanks for your article. Do you discredit the two entity's which now chart M3 or why do you not mention them?
    I wrote this recently:
    seekingalpha.com/artic....
    I'd be curious to hear your comments.
    Nov 10 02:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recession Is Over; Depression Has Just Begun [View article]
    Great article! thanks!
    Oct 2 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Program: Morally Hazardous? [View article]
    Einstein, you made me laugh until I cried. However, now that I've started crying, not sure I'll be able to stop.
    Sep 23 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Agricultural Commodities in the Face of Deflation [View article]
    socrateazz
    I agree with all you say and I meant for fossil fuels to be all encompassing and include fertilizer. Thanks for your valuable and interesting comment and best of luck.
    Aug 17 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 Agriculture Myths Busted: This Bubble Is Ready to Pop [View article]
    delta ag
    Thanks for your informative comment. My only response is that, as far as deflation is concerned, one should avoid debt, so I would not want to see anyone taking on a huge debt burden right now to buy farmland. If they inherit it or pay cash it would be ok, especially if they plan to live on it. As for labor, I see more migrant workers on industrial farms and as jobs are lost in this deflationary period forthcoming some of those workers can go to the farms, but I'd expect the local/regional fruit & vegetable markets to be based primarily surrounding cities and towns. One more consideration would be to expect higher and higher taxes on farmland because this nation needs to tax everything it possibly can to pay off this massive debt burden. I should have another article up soon addressing some of these other issues (now on my blog).
    Aug 16 01:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back [View article]
    GLTurner:
    Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski also predicted $20 oil for '09 in December of '08. And he had also correctly predicted on Oct. 14, 2007, that oil, then trading at $83.69 a barrel, would rise to $100 within six months. He thought that when speculators deserted it, it would overshoot on the way down. His prediction was a little early, if these guys end up being correct. Neil Barofsky announced the bailouts will exceed $23 trillion in costs to the US Federal government today. Brace yourself. Figure out how that will play into your crude price. This nation is bankrupt.
    Jul 20 11:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back [View article]
    ducat
    I realized my error of mentioning compounding as soon as I made the post. Thanks for pointing it out. But, it is still a 1.25% oversupply above demand, which he predicts in his statement, "Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said."

    Sorry, you lost me on your last statement. Do you think that prices will not fall from their current level until we have a daily surplus of 5 million barrels per day? Do you know how much empty capacity is currently available for storage?

    Of course, once we get to a price below the cost to produce (varies, I know) the exporting nations will be motivated to decrease their production. And then, the cost can resume upwards all subject to demand, of course, which I'm probably expecting to be bleaker than many here.
    Jul 20 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back [View article]
    William

    Or, 1.25% per day excess global production. I wouldn't mind that kind of compounding on my checking account.
    Jul 20 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back [View article]
    And from today's WSJ (on gasoline savings):

    .......Crudely calculated, the $1.58-a-gallon savings compared with last July equates to an extra $222 billion in drivers' pockets, annualized.

    ........ a world average price of just under $3.50 a gallon(gas), down $1.46 over the past year. The implied annualized saving for consumers, globally, approaches half a trillion dollars.
    Jul 20 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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