Comments on KCInvestor's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/kcinvestor/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/50675-is-rentech-the-answer-to-u-s-energy-problems?source=feed#comment-479729 479729 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:41:19 -0400 As the writer says . . . is anything of intelligence and forsight going to come from the congress? Absolutely not! Or perhaps from the president? His handlers wouldn't have it!
Wherever the initiative toward achievable oil independence might come from, here's my take: In order to entice investors to put money into projects like FT (CTL/GTL) there has to be some assurance that long term investments will pan out. This would require, among other assurances, that the oil price will not fall below a certain price, let's say $ 60.00 for arguments sake, at which price FT technology would be feasible and profitable.
If the price were artificially lowered by the oil producers to destroy any efforts of synthetic fuels energy, as they have done several times in the past, a special tax would kick in to keep the price of crude at the above minimum level. The windfall tax could and should be used to accelerate alternative energy sources. No tax payer money would be wasted to further efforts like the Pickens plan, which, again, I suspect is lop sided and helps Pickens and friends to sell their NG at taxpayers' expense, or GE's caper to monopolize the wind energy front.
We must stop hoping that congress will do the right things, and DEMAND that the right course be taken, free from partisanship and personal interest void of all concern for the future of this great nation.
Is congress getting the message? Absolutely not. With people like Pelosi and Reid throwing around their weight, there's no hope. Replacing them with the other buffoons? No hope either.
Something radically new has to come along. How? If congress does not want to listen and act their mandate to work for the people, we will orchestrate a "General Strike" and then see what will emerge that is palatable and acceptable to the majority of the people.
Right now would be the time to make radical changes in our nation, because we are already in the midst of unprecedented upheaval. Solutions are NOT going to come from our bought and paid for "leaders", but must come from the people.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50675-is-rentech-the-answer-to-u-s-energy-problems?source=feed#comment-238611 238611 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 13:14:37 -0400 If congress were to guarantee a minimum price for imported foreign oil, so that the oil producers could not undermine the GTL/CTL technology again, like they have in the past by reducing prices to a point that made GTL/CTL no longer economically viable, investors would be there on the ready to go full scale.
But . . . with our no good for nothing congress that is not likely to happen because self interest is much stronger than the mandate they (the congress) have to act in the interest of the people.
So, we continue on the path to being the underdog, eventually.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50675-is-rentech-the-answer-to-u-s-energy-problems?source=feed#comment-172241 172241 Thu, 22 May 2008 20:08:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65861-itt-educational-services-offers-an-investment-for-the-future?source=feed#comment-134628 134628 Tue, 01 Apr 2008 13:27:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65861-itt-educational-services-offers-an-investment-for-the-future?source=feed#comment-133939 133939 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 06:53:16 -0400
I think another angle to look at this is what pool of FFEL lenders are available to these schools and how many of them will be exiting the gates like Brazos did a few days ago. How fast can ESI, APOL, and the like fill this gap if lenders were to leave?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65861-itt-educational-services-offers-an-investment-for-the-future?source=feed#comment-118551 118551 Sun, 24 Feb 2008 22:37:32 -0500
Forget about ESL and stick with best of breed which is APOL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61823-pfizer-top-dog-of-the-dow?source=feed#comment-113649 113649 Wed, 30 Jan 2008 10:37:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/61823-pfizer-top-dog-of-the-dow?source=feed#comment-113533 113533 Tue, 29 Jan 2008 17:52:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/50675-is-rentech-the-answer-to-u-s-energy-problems?source=feed#comment-109867 109867 Sat, 12 Jan 2008 23:38:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58174-why-i-m-not-100-convinced-that-we-ve-entered-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-106870 106870 Tue, 25 Dec 2007 23:55:10 -0500
2) PEs are still estimated using forward view ...both Q3 and Q4 earnings growth were cut substantially ...as I am sure 2008 will be as well.

3) Emerging markets have higher earnings growth expectations because their GDP growth is MUCH higher than developed countries. BRIC probably averages 8-10% GDP growth versus the US growth of 1-2% on average. I think EM are also over valued, but not at much as the S&P.

If you are still a bull it is because you choose to be. As they say, "Sold to YOU!"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58174-why-i-m-not-100-convinced-that-we-ve-entered-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-106693 106693 Mon, 24 Dec 2007 07:34:15 -0500
I think you've made some good points, and considered this from several angles. The way I would play this if I was in US equities is pretty straightforward. I'd be oscillating between zero and about 50 percent long, as apparent buying opportunities presented themselves. I would hold the other 50 percent in reserve for the 25 to 35 percent pullback, which may never come, but which is much more likely under the current circumstances than it was before. I think if you go 100 percent long here, at any point near term, you risk getting trapped.

I agree, there is no bubble waiting to be popped. The downside is very, very unlikely to be 50 percent, or 70 percent. But the downside is certainly 20 to 30 percent possibly. Thirty percent off S&P 500 at 1500 is way, way down there at about 1,050. Even 20 percent puts it at about 1200. Anybody willing to have 100 percent get trapped like that? Anybody think it can't happen?

Try 120-dollar oil for starters. Try and imagine what earnings might be like in the next two "earnings seasons".

P/Es are reasonable? Sure, but not cheap. I go back to when they have slumped to 12, or even 10. It happens.

The game is rigged to the upside, and anyone who doesn't realize that is not too clever. But from time to time there is substantial downside risk. This next 6 to 12 months is one of those times, I think. Keep an oar in the water if you must, but don't get sucked in. There are times, not often, but I think this is one of them, that call for more substantial cash reserves than normal. I want to buy at 1100 or 1200. It will take cash. I will have some.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-106018 106018 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 00:50:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-105998 105998 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 22:00:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-105979 105979 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:48:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-105977 105977 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:41:15 -0500
You know, you're probably right seeing how it's been such a BAD call since late 2006 to own this one only going up roughly 1000%. And exactly how much is FSLR's profit going to be hurt if the dollar rises? How much will their earnings decrease? Will they be losing money then? Or just less? If less, how much less? Without that information you're simply a cheerleader on the sideline doing a routine hoping it goes down. Just as bad as the people pumping up a stock on no data or info.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-105938 105938 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 15:14:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-105934 105934 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 14:21:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-105931 105931 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 13:40:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57633-morgan-stanley-s-top-long-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-105886 105886 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 08:56:41 -0500 Parker Hills story on XNPT only confirms my theory over and over for 2007.
Research firms for the most part do not know what their doing and are over paid to boot.
Case in Point:Friedman Billings downgraded XNPT on Dec.3rd.
Outperform to market perform.
Now at this point who will you rely on, Morgan Stanley or Friedmans & billings?
No brainer!
What mutual funds or companies rely soley on Friedmans&billings?
There are plenty of mis-calls based on their downgrades or upgrades or especially their target prices.
Example: Not just past year but how about past two years on "NSTK' alone.
And if you follow Cramer your cooked unless your short on the stock while you buy the shares for the immediate rise do to his Touting.
The small investor has so many obstacles to endure along the way but if they just read articles like this gentleman wrote today,
there would be less financial horrors in ones portfolio.
Thanks parker Hill!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/55111-two-new-dogs-to-watch-citigroup-pfizer?source=feed#comment-102766 102766 Creative Investor 101]]> Thu, 22 Nov 2007 10:53:48 -0500
My blog: Creative Investor 101]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/54809-rentech-may-get-a-bid-but-don-t-count-on-it?source=feed#comment-102692 102692 Wed, 21 Nov 2007 18:32:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/54809-rentech-may-get-a-bid-but-don-t-count-on-it?source=feed#comment-102680 102680 Wed, 21 Nov 2007 17:25:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/54569-garmin-the-master-negotiator?source=feed#comment-102302 102302 Mon, 19 Nov 2007 05:54:51 -0500
www.afm.nl/registers/r...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50675-is-rentech-the-answer-to-u-s-energy-problems?source=feed#comment-99555 99555 Tue, 23 Oct 2007 23:13:53 -0400 Buy+++]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50675-is-rentech-the-answer-to-u-s-energy-problems?source=feed#comment-99554 99554 Tue, 23 Oct 2007 23:12:58 -0400 Buy+++]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50675-is-rentech-the-answer-to-u-s-energy-problems?source=feed#comment-99511 99511 Tue, 23 Oct 2007 16:06:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49600-under-armour-set-to-rise?source=feed#comment-98392 98392 Thu, 11 Oct 2007 13:34:54 -0400
Weather is never a good reason for upgrading or downgrading a stock. If you need a pair of long-johns for the winter, warm weather just pushes off the purchase for a few weeks, at best. Chances are that valuations were too high but the analyst was playing it cautiously.

If you want a more plausible explanation as to why AU has traded the way it has over the past six weeks, see this SA article:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Disclosure: Consensus opinion at CrossProfit.com: www.crossprofit.com.
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