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  • Apple: Too Far, Too Fast? [View article]
    I love how you pulled $35 out of thin air. Nice work!
    May 7 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Far, Too Fast? [View article]
    As a long term shareholder, I'd rather see Apple's share price decline so that the most can be made out of those buybacks.

    For now, I plan on continuing to add to my position at 25 share blocks while Apple sits below $500.
    May 7 11:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +2.6%) commanded 57% of smartphone profits in Q1, and Samsung (SSNLF.PK) 43%, estimates Canaccord's Mike Walkley. All other OEMs collectively broke even, after having lost money last year. Apple's profit share is down from 2012's 69%, and Samsung's up from 2012's 34% - chalk those changes up to Samsung's share gains and Apple's gross margin decline. Walkley also writes Samsung's Galaxy S4 is off to a strong start (in spite of some reports of overheating), that checks indicate U.S. BlackBerry Z10 (BBRY +0.7%) sales are soft, and that U.K. Q10 supplies have been limited. [View news story]
    I have yet to see one person in the US with a Z10 or a Q10...
    May 6 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers Outdoor: International Growth Potential Is Enormous [View article]
    Investors need to learn patience. Billionaires don't happen overnight.
    May 3 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers Outdoor: International Growth Potential Is Enormous [View article]
    Betting on any stock for the short term is an easy way to lose money.
    May 3 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers Outdoor: International Growth Potential Is Enormous [View article]
    Hi Bill,

    Here's a bit more from CEO Angel Martinez in the Q1 conference call regarding China store operations in response to Eric Tracy's query:

    "we've been seeing some steady improvements on our retail store operations in China. And we're still just scratching the surface of the total opportunity there. When you look at second, third tier cities, you look at outlet concept opportunities. That is still a great opportunity. In terms of productivity, they are smaller stores. They still generate 1 year kind of paybacks, which has very strong returns on invested capital, but they are smaller stores compared to some of the U.S. and European stores."
    May 2 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers Investors Might Be Missing The Bigger Picture [View article]
    indian - Once again, the point of my article was not about Deckers' cash generation or how Deckers is or should be valued, but about the potential for massive product diversification and risk aversion through other recently acquired brands.
    May 1 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers Investors Might Be Missing The Bigger Picture [View article]
    The point of my article was not about Decker's cash generation, but product diversification through other existing brands. Even The Coca-Cola Company sells Orange Juice at a billion dollars per year. Relying on one product (anything fur lined from the UGG brand) greatly increases your profit risk as seen from mild winters and the jump in sheepskin wool prices.

    The point of product diversification in a business is to offset the dangerous repercussions of seasonality and sole dependence on a single brand (in this case fur lined UGG products) to maintain that cashflow you speak of. At the end of the day, you have to prepare for when there might be less demand for your product (UGG fur lined products) and setup some safety nets.
    May 1 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers Pullback Could Present Opportunity [View article]
    Nice article, Bill.

    I think their retail store investment will pay out handsomely over the next 5 years.

    Earnings are greatly reduced now because of this investment, but it's a pay it forward type deal that could bring home some pretty substantial profits.
    Apr 30 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A debate is raging between retail analysts on whether or not a move by Deckers Outdoor (DECK +0.7%) to replace sheepskin with a new wool fiber in its Ugg products is a positive. Exec said during the earnings call (transcript) that the company could lower product costs and pursue profitable new growth opportunities by making the switch, but skeptic wonder about the hit to the brand. (Twitter exchange: I, II, III[View news story]
    From the conference call, they mentioned retailers preffering the feel of the new UGG Pure Wool vs their traditional sheepskin wool. Seems like a win-win - lower costs and better quality products.
    Apr 30 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
    @pk de cville

    Thank you!

    People never review the actual facts... Just what they care to look at.
    Apr 25 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
    "This way, Apple is able to see what the estimates are and use the buyback to meet it."

    That's a very interesting way to look at it...
    Apr 25 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
    So I had the editors here at Seeking Alpha change "hoard" to "horde" for me and they did that, but then they changed it back to "hoard." Looks like I was correct the first time around.

    See for yourself - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 25 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
    The flawed logic in comparing the iPhone 5 to previous generation iPhone sales is the fact that many more carriers sell the iPhone 4/4S now than when the 4S came out and carriers sold the 3GS/4. You're comparing Apple's to Oranges.

    Right now, there are many carriers selling the iPhone 4/4S & 5 vs a lot fewer that were offering the iPhone 3GS/4 & 4S combo.
    Apr 25 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
    I'd venture to guess that Apple will put a decent dent in their share buyback program at these current levels.
    Apr 25 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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