Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Bill - Let's just agree to disagree. I think Apple's projected profit range and buyback will make it increasingly difficult for Analysts to correctly predict future quarterly EPS and you don't.
I'm a big fan of yours - I've read a lot of your articles and your writing is nothing short of superb, but we all have our own opinions.
I also think Deckers is going higher, and from what I've read you think the opposite. I might be kicking myself after today's close!
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Bill, I respectfully disagree with you on your comment "the buyback is fairly easily to calculate" - I don't think it's going to be as simple as a 1.75 billion purchase per month. Time will tell, but I think we will be in for some major buyback surprises.
The bottom line is that Analysts want an EPS number. If they didn't, they would would predict revenue (which they do) AND profits (which they don't). It's all about the EPS and Apple will no longer hold any Analyst hands.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Thanks Bill.
You're missing the point.
The revenue figure should be easy for analysts to forecast. However, actual quarterly earnings per share will become much more difficult to predict due Apple's new earnings guidance policy and massive share buyback program.
More from Apple's (AAPL) FQ2 call: Mix shift towards iPhone 4 responsible for iPhone ASP drop; iPhone channel inventory up 1M Q/Q. Greater China sell-thru growth was 18% Y/Y, above reported (sell-in) 8%. Revenue mix shift towards iPad hurt gross margin, expected to fall to 36%-37% in FQ3 due to lower revenue and mix, partly offset by lower costs. Tim Cook talks of "exciting new product categories" (an iWatch?). While Cook said competitors made tradeoffs to offer ~5" phones, he didn't mention one-handed use (Apple's traditional critique) - is he hinting one will eventually arrive? AAPL -0.3% AH, as investors focus on FQ3 guidance (implies rev. growth of -4% to +2% Y/Y). CRUS -1.9%. (transcript) (previous) [View news story]
"But up until the 4S the latest model always sold overwhelmingly ... and the 3S and 4 were also available at discounted prices. Something changed. "
@Paulo Santos
The flaw in your logic is the amount of carriers that sold the 3GS. As of late, there is a massive increase in the amount of carriers that have entered the market with a cheap iPhone 4 w/ cheap service.
"iOS 7 (AAPL) is running behind, and engineers have been pulled from OS X 10.9 to work on it," John Gruber reports hearing. The remarks come 5 months after iOS chief Scott Forstall left Apple, and Mac OS chief Craig Federighi was put in charge of the mobile OS. Meanwhile, iMore's Rene Ritchie claims Jony Ive's UI work "is apparently making many people really happy, but will also apparently make rich-texture-loving designers sad."The WSJ reported something similar last month. [View news story]
Lol, Steve Jobs wasn't God. Apple will do just fine without him. And they did just that while Tim Cook was interim CEO, twice.
Citing upcoming catalysts, UBS puts Apple (AAPL +1.6%) on its Most Preferred list, helping shares outperform in early trading. The firm was among the first to raise alarm bells about iPhone order cuts. Apple is now up 11% from its March 4 low. [View news story]
There are two types of employee stock options, non-qualified stock options (NQs) and incentive stock options (ISOs), and each are taxed quite differently, but both require that you pay taxes on them. Therefore, he sold because he needed the cash to pay taxes on those exercised options.
Jefferies' Peter Misek cuts his price target on Hold-rated Apple (AAPL) to $420 from $500. He's slashing his revenue numbers and seeing about a 25% chance the company misses Q1 guidance after Jefferies' recent supplier checks. "Historically when handset makers fall out of favor, they fall faster/further than expected." Shares -0.7% premarket. [View news story]
Jefferies' Peter Misek cuts his price target on Hold-rated Apple (AAPL) to $420 from $500. He's slashing his revenue numbers and seeing about a 25% chance the company misses Q1 guidance after Jefferies' recent supplier checks. "Historically when handset makers fall out of favor, they fall faster/further than expected." Shares -0.7% premarket. [View news story]
Who cares. It's a cheap plastic phone with a glitchy OS.
States aren't waiting around for new federal gun legislation as they take matters into their own hands. The latest: A new South Dakota law will allow teachers to carry guns in schools and Georgia approved a measure which will remove a ban on firearms in college classrooms and churches. About 25 other states have similar bills pending. Meanwhile, gun sellers Sturm Ruger (RGR -1.2%) and Smith & Wesson (SWHC -1.2%) continue to try to keep with robust demand. [View news story]
Just got off the phone with the Sales Dept. at Sturm Ruger. They cannot keep AR-15s in stock...
Apple's Bright Spot In China - Not Really That Bright [View article]
I'd say it's the other way around and China Mobile will need Apple. And I believe that's what Tim Cook and Company are holding out for - the demand of iPhone to trump China Mobile's offerings. At some point, China mobile will start seeing users defecting to other carriers to get iPhones. It's going to be a huge problem for China Mobile if they neglect to strike a deal with Apple.
China Mobile users are already buying unlocked iPhones from the states and putting them on China Mobile's network.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
I'm a big fan of yours - I've read a lot of your articles and your writing is nothing short of superb, but we all have our own opinions.
I also think Deckers is going higher, and from what I've read you think the opposite. I might be kicking myself after today's close!
Take care.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
The bottom line is that Analysts want an EPS number. If they didn't, they would would predict revenue (which they do) AND profits (which they don't). It's all about the EPS and Apple will no longer hold any Analyst hands.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
You're missing the point.
The revenue figure should be easy for analysts to forecast. However, actual quarterly earnings per share will become much more difficult to predict due Apple's new earnings guidance policy and massive share buyback program.
Apple: How To Admit You're Out Of Ideas [View article]
They're buying back $60 billion worth of shares over 32 months.
Do the math!
More from Apple's (AAPL) FQ2 call: Mix shift towards iPhone 4 responsible for iPhone ASP drop; iPhone channel inventory up 1M Q/Q. Greater China sell-thru growth was 18% Y/Y, above reported (sell-in) 8%. Revenue mix shift towards iPad hurt gross margin, expected to fall to 36%-37% in FQ3 due to lower revenue and mix, partly offset by lower costs. Tim Cook talks of "exciting new product categories" (an iWatch?). While Cook said competitors made tradeoffs to offer ~5" phones, he didn't mention one-handed use (Apple's traditional critique) - is he hinting one will eventually arrive? AAPL -0.3% AH, as investors focus on FQ3 guidance (implies rev. growth of -4% to +2% Y/Y). CRUS -1.9%. (transcript) (previous) [View news story]
@Paulo Santos
The flaw in your logic is the amount of carriers that sold the 3GS. As of late, there is a massive increase in the amount of carriers that have entered the market with a cheap iPhone 4 w/ cheap service.
The Time Has Come... I'm Buying Apple [View article]
Declining margins (yes, from 38% to 36% - on no!)
Major competition in tablet space. (who?)
Old and stale OS. (people love it - people also love the porsche 911 and jeep wrangler. both have been around for over 50 years)
Next Gen product delays (great things take time)
No major factors to fuel the monster growth that drove stock to 700. (way to look at stock price and not business valuation)
Earnings will beat...guidance will kill the stock. (ah, I'd love to swing by your office/home and get a psychic reading from you - free this weekend?)
Good summary? (<--- this guy, lol... Please short AAPL)
"iOS 7 (AAPL) is running behind, and engineers have been pulled from OS X 10.9 to work on it," John Gruber reports hearing. The remarks come 5 months after iOS chief Scott Forstall left Apple, and Mac OS chief Craig Federighi was put in charge of the mobile OS. Meanwhile, iMore's Rene Ritchie claims Jony Ive's UI work "is apparently making many people really happy, but will also apparently make rich-texture-loving designers sad."The WSJ reported something similar last month. [View news story]
Citing upcoming catalysts, UBS puts Apple (AAPL +1.6%) on its Most Preferred list, helping shares outperform in early trading. The firm was among the first to raise alarm bells about iPhone order cuts. Apple is now up 11% from its March 4 low. [View news story]
More info on exercised options taxing can be found here - http://bit.ly/ZlxMPE
Jefferies' Peter Misek cuts his price target on Hold-rated Apple (AAPL) to $420 from $500. He's slashing his revenue numbers and seeing about a 25% chance the company misses Q1 guidance after Jefferies' recent supplier checks. "Historically when handset makers fall out of favor, they fall faster/further than expected." Shares -0.7% premarket. [View news story]
Jefferies' Peter Misek cuts his price target on Hold-rated Apple (AAPL) to $420 from $500. He's slashing his revenue numbers and seeing about a 25% chance the company misses Q1 guidance after Jefferies' recent supplier checks. "Historically when handset makers fall out of favor, they fall faster/further than expected." Shares -0.7% premarket. [View news story]
States aren't waiting around for new federal gun legislation as they take matters into their own hands. The latest: A new South Dakota law will allow teachers to carry guns in schools and Georgia approved a measure which will remove a ban on firearms in college classrooms and churches. About 25 other states have similar bills pending. Meanwhile, gun sellers Sturm Ruger (RGR -1.2%) and Smith & Wesson (SWHC -1.2%) continue to try to keep with robust demand. [View news story]
Apple's Bright Spot In China - Not Really That Bright [View article]
China Mobile users are already buying unlocked iPhones from the states and putting them on China Mobile's network.
Apple's Bright Spot In China - Not Really That Bright [View article]
This was a 13 week quarter, not 14 like Q1 2012.
On a comparable basis, earnings for this quarter would be 7.6% more:
$14.86 per share on $58.65B of revenue.
Looks like rock solid earnings to me...