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Kehong Wen  

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  • Bullard trolls Jim Cramer, says October hike on the table [View news story]
    Jim Bullard is way out of line here, attacking the FOMC decision, attacking Larry Summers for writing his views, attacking Jim Cramer for doing his job. He is NOT a FOMC volting member this year, and is acting like he is. Moreover, he apparently has tried to meddle with the Fed decision through back door and is now voicing his frustration, on CNBC and elsewhere. He is pretending to represent FOMC on which he is really a minor figure. He likes to think of himself as the Fed chief, often wrong but never boring. All he really does is to attract attention to himself: Me, me, me; my view, my take, my read, my conjecture,... and not to the actual data and basic macroeconomics.

    Yes, unemployment rate 5.1% looks on target, but who is to say that the real NAIRU is somewhere close? If so, where is the wage pressure?

    And Core PCE inflation running at only 1.3%, what does that show? Very close to target? If inflation is nowhere to be seen, who is to say that the zero rate is an "emergency" rate that must be raised to "normal?" Maybe it is even above the normal rate that's consistent with the underlying NAIRU and the current rate of inflation. Rates market appears to support this view. Leading economists appear to support this view.

    So why does this Ballard person has the balls to act like his views should be adopted by FOMC? This is a huge ego on display... Investors take note.
    Sep 21, 2015. 02:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Bullard: Why I argued against the Fed rate hold [View news story]
    Bullard's assessment is just wrong: The Committee's objectives have not been met and are getting further away. Look at his graph on page 21. Inflation is so far below 2% and is drifting lower. How can he conclude the objectives have essentially been met?
    Sep 20, 2015. 06:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Your Nose And Consider Pier One Imports [View article]
    It's a disaster, which calls into question the December report, which then calls into question the entire omni-channel strategy that PIR is pursuing with ever shrinking margins. At less than $2b annual sale, it's too small to justify the online foray. I believe Alex Smith has made a costly mistake of going after what's fashionable - a Macy style omni-channel strategy, instead of what works for his core customers. It's time for him to go.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brutal self-assessment on Pier 1 Imports earnings call [View news story]
    Brutal self-assessment is a good start for turning around the business. This is so much better than blaming the weather etc...
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pier 1 Imports (PIR) Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Webcast [View article]
    It's good that Smith admitted the mistake of going promotional. That was a bruising contest which only served to down grade the brand... ignore market share, serve your core customers well. Pier 1 should learn from Apple...
    Sep 17, 2014. 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: Don't Say I Didn't Warn You [View article]
    mkt cap ~ 7.5B!
    Mar 6, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: User Base Grows But No Profit In Sight [View article]
    "As of December, Pandora had 76.2 million active users, 1.58 billion listener hours (20.73 hours per listener), and a radio market share of 8.60%. The company's month-to-month user growth was 5.20% while month-to-month listener hours increased by 6.04%."

    Please take a look at the January audience metrics:;highlight=

    It looks like listener hours after the holiday has stopped increasing. Market share falling. More importantly, active listeners decreased to 73.4 million! Your title is a bit misleading.
    Feb 6, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Lumber Liquidators About To Get Taken To The Woodshed? [View article]
    LL is reporting next week. Time to short? Lumber prices have shot up 30%. Labor costs have increased. Dollar has weakened against RMB. Gas prices have gone up. Margin pressure has built. Expect to see that in last Q and next Q. Yet the share price seems to expect a blow-out at 64.
    Feb 14, 2013. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Personal Income and Outlays: Income +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior. Personal spending +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.3% prior. PCE core price index +0.1% m/m vs. +0.2% expected, +0.2% prior.  [View news story]
    PCE core up by 0.1%. Risk of deflation!
    Jun 1, 2012. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper in 2011: A Beijing Opera [View article]
    Cost of production is running up. That can be an important factor.
    Jan 2, 2011. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calculating Mesabi Trust's Q4 Distribution [View article]
    Can you elaborate on the point

    "As several data points in the global iron ore market suggests dramatic increases in market pricing for iron ore,..." ?

    Dec 20, 2010. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enter Yuan: Dawn of the Tri-Polar Era [View article]
    I like your thesis. There is only one problem: India and Japan won't like it.
    Nov 11, 2010. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Is Oversold [View article]
    Great analysis. I enjoy reading the article.

    Shares of competitors such as Diamond Offshore (DO) have also been under pressure (off 14% since April 20). The market is pricing in the political implications for the industry, i.e. more regulation and limits on offshore drilling. That appears to account for most of the "over-reaction" identified here for Transocean. One can still argue that if the containment effort and cleanup are somewhat better than expected, this fear may be eased over time.

    So the opportunity here is a bet on the direction of the U.S. energy policy. If the administration does not reverse course because of this accident, then RIG and DO are good buys at these levels.
    May 5, 2010. 11:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Short the Homebuilders [View article]
    Very good article. I have a short position on HOV. It helped.
    Apr 28, 2010. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Small Cap Bubble Is Ready to Burst: Part 1 [View article]
    SA editor's picks often times are not the best article. This is a good example.
    Apr 27, 2010. 11:59 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment