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Kehong Wen

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  • Pandora: Don't Say I Didn't Warn You [View article]
    mkt cap ~ 7.5B!
    Mar 6 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: User Base Grows But No Profit In Sight [View article]
    "As of December, Pandora had 76.2 million active users, 1.58 billion listener hours (20.73 hours per listener), and a radio market share of 8.60%. The company's month-to-month user growth was 5.20% while month-to-month listener hours increased by 6.04%."

    Please take a look at the January audience metrics:;highlight=

    It looks like listener hours after the holiday has stopped increasing. Market share falling. More importantly, active listeners decreased to 73.4 million! Your title is a bit misleading.
    Feb 6 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Lumber Liquidators About To Get Taken To The Woodshed? [View article]
    LL is reporting next week. Time to short? Lumber prices have shot up 30%. Labor costs have increased. Dollar has weakened against RMB. Gas prices have gone up. Margin pressure has built. Expect to see that in last Q and next Q. Yet the share price seems to expect a blow-out at 64.
    Feb 14 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Personal Income and Outlays: Income +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior. Personal spending +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.3% prior. PCE core price index +0.1% m/m vs. +0.2% expected, +0.2% prior.  [View news story]
    PCE core up by 0.1%. Risk of deflation!
    Jun 1 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper in 2011: A Beijing Opera [View article]
    Cost of production is running up. That can be an important factor.
    Jan 2 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calculating Mesabi Trust's Q4 Distribution [View article]
    Can you elaborate on the point

    "As several data points in the global iron ore market suggests dramatic increases in market pricing for iron ore,..." ?

    Dec 20 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enter Yuan: Dawn of the Tri-Polar Era [View article]
    I like your thesis. There is only one problem: India and Japan won't like it.
    Nov 11 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Is Oversold [View article]
    Great analysis. I enjoy reading the article.

    Shares of competitors such as Diamond Offshore (DO) have also been under pressure (off 14% since April 20). The market is pricing in the political implications for the industry, i.e. more regulation and limits on offshore drilling. That appears to account for most of the "over-reaction" identified here for Transocean. One can still argue that if the containment effort and cleanup are somewhat better than expected, this fear may be eased over time.

    So the opportunity here is a bet on the direction of the U.S. energy policy. If the administration does not reverse course because of this accident, then RIG and DO are good buys at these levels.
    May 5 11:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Short the Homebuilders [View article]
    Very good article. I have a short position on HOV. It helped.
    Apr 28 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Small Cap Bubble Is Ready to Burst: Part 1 [View article]
    SA editor's picks often times are not the best article. This is a good example.
    Apr 27 11:59 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Driving the V-Shaped Recovery? [View article]
    "VV" is possible, that's largely a function of how China, India and Brazil perform in the second half of 2010. The reason is that the strong V we're seeing now with U.S.-based multi-nationals is highly dependent on the growth of these countries. The "affluent" consumers alone will not be sufficient, now that they're getting hit with higher taxes in coming years.

    Thanks for the discussions.
    Apr 27 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard Pacific: Beware This Home Builder's Massive Dilution [View article]
    I agree with your sense. MP will probably hold them for quite a while, and exit gradually over the housing upturn. Investors need to be aware that MP's holding value will be exceeding the current market cap, which together will need to be justified by future earnings. Right now, the potential dilution is not made clear by common valuation ratios on portals like Yahoo Finance, although the company has started to calculate if-converted book equity per share. For Q1, it came in at a low $1.74.
    Apr 26 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are New Home Sales About to Go Up? [View article]
    Interesting enough, the March new home sales did go up, by a lot. Of course, much of that was due to the pending expiration of the tax credit. But if you look beyond the low end of the market, it is possibly a slow upturn from here.

    However, that turn may not justify the parabolic rise in home builder shares last week, which could very well be a short squeeze effect.
    Apr 24 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard Pacific: Beware This Home Builder's Massive Dilution [View article]
    Good point, but no.

    I just tried to calculate roughly the market value of all equity-like claims including preferred and warrant at current date. Note I took the difference between the share price and the convertible prices.

    Book value as state remains the same.

    To do the pro-forma as you suggested, the "market cap" would be a lot higher than 1.4B.

    I hope this analysis makes sense. At least it's a way to look at the dilution effect before it happens.
    Apr 23 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terrible Housing Numbers Made to Seem Good [View article]
    The only problem with this article is that the author keeps urging others to go short, but never reveals his own positions. Is he shorting the sector himself? Or is he waiting to go short? Why wait?
    Apr 23 12:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment