Is Lumber Liquidators About To Get Taken To The Woodshed? [View article]
LL is reporting next week. Time to short? Lumber prices have shot up 30%. Labor costs have increased. Dollar has weakened against RMB. Gas prices have gone up. Margin pressure has built. Expect to see that in last Q and next Q. Yet the share price seems to expect a blow-out at 64.
Apr. Personal Income and Outlays: Income +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior. Personal spending +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.3% prior. PCE core price index +0.1% m/m vs. +0.2% expected, +0.2% prior. [View news story]
Shares of competitors such as Diamond Offshore (DO) have also been under pressure (off 14% since April 20). The market is pricing in the political implications for the industry, i.e. more regulation and limits on offshore drilling. That appears to account for most of the "over-reaction" identified here for Transocean. One can still argue that if the containment effort and cleanup are somewhat better than expected, this fear may be eased over time.
So the opportunity here is a bet on the direction of the U.S. energy policy. If the administration does not reverse course because of this accident, then RIG and DO are good buys at these levels.
What Is Driving the V-Shaped Recovery? [View article]
"VV" is possible, that's largely a function of how China, India and Brazil perform in the second half of 2010. The reason is that the strong V we're seeing now with U.S.-based multi-nationals is highly dependent on the growth of these countries. The "affluent" consumers alone will not be sufficient, now that they're getting hit with higher taxes in coming years.
Standard Pacific: Beware This Home Builder's Massive Dilution [View article]
I agree with your sense. MP will probably hold them for quite a while, and exit gradually over the housing upturn. Investors need to be aware that MP's holding value will be exceeding the current market cap, which together will need to be justified by future earnings. Right now, the potential dilution is not made clear by common valuation ratios on portals like Yahoo Finance, although the company has started to calculate if-converted book equity per share. For Q1, it came in at a low $1.74.
Interesting enough, the March new home sales did go up, by a lot. Of course, much of that was due to the pending expiration of the tax credit. But if you look beyond the low end of the market, it is possibly a slow upturn from here.
However, that turn may not justify the parabolic rise in home builder shares last week, which could very well be a short squeeze effect.
Standard Pacific: Beware This Home Builder's Massive Dilution [View article]
Good point, but no.
I just tried to calculate roughly the market value of all equity-like claims including preferred and warrant at current date. Note I took the difference between the share price and the convertible prices.
Book value as state remains the same.
To do the pro-forma as you suggested, the "market cap" would be a lot higher than 1.4B.
I hope this analysis makes sense. At least it's a way to look at the dilution effect before it happens.
Terrible Housing Numbers Made to Seem Good [View article]
The only problem with this article is that the author keeps urging others to go short, but never reveals his own positions. Is he shorting the sector himself? Or is he waiting to go short? Why wait?
What to Expect From Standard Pacific's Q1 [View article]
SPF reports -0.02/shr loss, revenues fell 16.3% year/year to $175.4 M. That's a big disappointment, although there are reasons to like about the company's positioning (net new orders and backlog increased by large amounts). Shrs will be under pressure today.
Is Lumber Liquidators About To Get Taken To The Woodshed? [View article]
Apr. Personal Income and Outlays: Income +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior. Personal spending +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.3% prior. PCE core price index +0.1% m/m vs. +0.2% expected, +0.2% prior. [View news story]
Copper in 2011: A Beijing Opera [View article]
Calculating Mesabi Trust's Q4 Distribution [View article]
"As several data points in the global iron ore market suggests dramatic increases in market pricing for iron ore,..." ?
Thanks.
Enter Yuan: Dawn of the Tri-Polar Era [View article]
Transocean Is Oversold [View article]
Shares of competitors such as Diamond Offshore (DO) have also been under pressure (off 14% since April 20). The market is pricing in the political implications for the industry, i.e. more regulation and limits on offshore drilling. That appears to account for most of the "over-reaction" identified here for Transocean. One can still argue that if the containment effort and cleanup are somewhat better than expected, this fear may be eased over time.
So the opportunity here is a bet on the direction of the U.S. energy policy. If the administration does not reverse course because of this accident, then RIG and DO are good buys at these levels.
Time to Short the Homebuilders [View article]
seekingalpha.com/artic...
The Small Cap Bubble Is Ready to Burst: Part 1 [View article]
What Is Driving the V-Shaped Recovery? [View article]
Thanks for the discussions.
Standard Pacific: Beware This Home Builder's Massive Dilution [View article]
Are New Home Sales About to Go Up? [View article]
However, that turn may not justify the parabolic rise in home builder shares last week, which could very well be a short squeeze effect.
Standard Pacific: Beware This Home Builder's Massive Dilution [View article]
I just tried to calculate roughly the market value of all equity-like claims including preferred and warrant at current date. Note I took the difference between the share price and the convertible prices.
Book value as state remains the same.
To do the pro-forma as you suggested, the "market cap" would be a lot higher than 1.4B.
I hope this analysis makes sense. At least it's a way to look at the dilution effect before it happens.
Terrible Housing Numbers Made to Seem Good [View article]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Slips on Slow Quarter [View article]
High gross margin, and it can pass on raw material costs. Management solid. Good stock to own to benefit from the manufacturing-led recovery.
What to Expect From Standard Pacific's Q1 [View article]