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Keith Burtscher

 
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  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    There's another one, DLIA, that he recommended at .70. It went to 1.20 in a week, stayed there a month and is now .44.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Read the 6 months of comments, it's fascinating.
    I am posting to encourage people to buy and sell for their own reasons and research, not based on tips.
    I know because I have done this myself (trade on other people's tips). Sometimes you make money and sometimes you lose but you never know why.
    Aug 19 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    I just noticed a conference call for TPCS, a pick from a while back of Mark's. I owned it for a while from 1.10 to .78 and got out.
    Looked at the call transcript for a moment and then checked the price - .28!
    No wonder he never talks about it anymore.
    Anyway, what I am saying is know what you are buying, and just as importantly (or more) - selling.
    Mark doesn't really ever recommend selling, he just says the stock has "graduated". It's still completely up to you, the person with the money on the line to make that decision. And since many of his recommendations are somewhat iffy microcaps, being a long term investor carries a lot of risk.
    I actually kind of agree with him that if you are going to trade his picks, you should subscribe to PTT. At least that way you will have all the info on a timely basis, and no excuses from him.
    Aug 18 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am Bullish On King Coal [View article]
    It has been said before but I'll say it again- I think the EPA's announcement a few months back about new coal regs put in a bottom. Look at the charts since then of the weaker coal companies like ANR and WLT.
    Aug 13 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    For all you novice option investors out there, selling calls is not a hedge when you are long the stock. Covered call selling is a strategy used by investors to add returns to low volatility stocks they own. They sell out of the money calls and expect them to expire worthless. The risk is that the stock goes up enough for the calls to be in the money and the stock you wrote the calls against get called away. Buying calls or puts is a hedge, selling them is not.
    So buying puts is a hedge when long, but it is expensive, same goes for buying calls when short.
    I think the correct move for Mark and his crowd would have been to sell before earnings, if they were certain the stock was going down, then buy back after. The risk of the stock going up after earnings is essentially the same in selling the stock or the calls before earnings, but there is downside with a short call position (premium will not cover all your losses on the stock position) if the stock goes down versus selling the stock.
    This is why brokerage houses require investors to apply for permission to trade options - knowledge is required that the general public lacks.
    Aug 6 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    Watch out below:
    A somewhat famous person is mad because their kid spent $120 on KKH.
    http://read.bi/1pAGPcv
    Aug 5 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Question On Micron's Pullback: Would Samsung Actually Want To Help Apple? [View article]
    Bret,
    It's actually better than that. I think Samsung's move is to make sure they have enough DRAM. All the increase would be for internal use. Everybody else has to buy it from them, MU or Hynix. It's in their interest to keep prices up. Flooding the market is not.
    Aug 1 03:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Mark,

    I don't think a 20% of the gross royalty is a bad thing, the market does (at least at last week's stock price).

    It looks to me like that revenue takes them from breakeven to profitability.

    Currently Mr. (or Mrs.) Market feels that that level of profitability isn't worth 7.50.
    Aug 1 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    GLUU was initially up yesterday during the CC, then turned sharply down. Why? They gave rev guidance of 80M for the 3rd qtr (good news), and GM of 58% (bad news). GM has been in the high 60%s, reflecting the 30% cut the app stores take as the only material direct cost. So I calculate the GM on the incremental 45M in revenue for Q3 at 50%. Any guess what the additional 20% in GM cost might be?

    If anyone is about to accuse me of being a short seller, my answer is I wish. I actually bought a few calls yesterday, going against my own advice.
    Jul 31 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Mark,
    Well, the market has spoken on GLUU and it seems to revolve around the guidance to 58% GM in the 3rd qtr on 80M rev.
    Per the CC, a question was asked about KK royalties. The answer was you can calculate the royalty based on the guidance we gave you. So I did and I came up with 50% GM on incremental 3rd qtr rev. So KK gets about 20% and the app stores 30%. Still profitable for GLUU but not wildly so.
    Jul 31 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    It will be interesting to see the market reaction when Q2 earnings come out. It will have a negligible amount of KKH rev since the game came out June 24. If they show a small loss as estimates currently forecast will the stock drop? Or will the market look ahead to future quarters? I don't know, but personally I want to see evidence of profitability from GLUU.
    Jul 19 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Mark,
    I think if you look into it, no agent in Hollywood would negotiate a "net" deal for anything.
    Anyway to add one more thing, in the case of GLUU's share of KKH, by almost 100% profit I mean gross profit. They still have an organization to run, with all the associated expenses. I did not want to suggest that the profit from KKH would all become net profit for them.
    For KK, on the other hand, it's like finding money.
    Jul 18 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Mark,
    I viewed your video, and then did some further research.

    Here's what I found-

    In the past, it appears GLUU didn't pay a material amount of royalties. The only game I could find before KK Hollywood that would have had one was Robo Cop and I think it was a flop. Royalties are combined with Platform Commissions in the 10Qs, and it totals approx 30%, so royalties must have been pretty low. So we really don't know what the rate was. I think for someone as high profile as KK to put her name on a game, the royalty would have to be big. 45% after the app store cut sounds about right.

    KK Hollywood bears a striking resemblance to Stardom Hollywood, validating your theory that KKH was a quick low cost port of an existing game.

    Bottom line - I think development costs and marketing expenses are pretty low for KKH. Basically the revenue is almost 100% profit, split roughly equally between the app stores, KK, and GLUU.
    Jul 18 12:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    I think the KK deal would be similar to movie gross deals - a % of the net gross. I think that is the gross after deducting the theater's cut and probably some marketing expenses. Actors wanted this kind of deal because movies never make a profit when someone has a % of the net profit.

    So probably in this case 45% of the gross after the app store takes its cut and perhaps marketing expense. That would come out to 45% of 50% or 25% of the total gross. A 50-50 split between KK and GLUU with direct non development costs for GLUU covered.

    Comments, Mark?
    Jul 17 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile's Q3 Revenue Could Double The Consensus View [View article]
    First I want to say you were right and I was wrong on GLUU at 3.60.
    My question -- apparently KK gets 45% of the gross of her game. Is that reflected in the $60M for 2014?
    Jul 16 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Himax Really Be Trading At $131 A Share? [View article]
    Ok Aaron and/or Wilfred, since the author isn't around maybe you can tell me what these statements mean:

    "there are companies that are generating absolutely no revenue that are trading over 200 times their current valuation"

    "In the case of Himax it is being traded at cost. In the event that you apply the speculation that their future products will become successful (which I believe that they will) and trade them at 15 times their current value (which is surprisingly realistic) it would be trading at $131.25 a share"

    Current valuation means the current stock price for a publicly traded company. Talking about a multiple of the current stock price seems to be confusing that with p/e multiples. Of course, for the part about HIMX there is no mention of what the "e" is anyway.
    Jul 10 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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