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Keith Libert

 
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  • Pandora's Active Users Under Pressure From Competition [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback. I was writing this article from the consumers point of view which is why I did not address your points at the bottom. Even if the industry grows if Pandora's active users go down growth will be less than expected, which can have an adverse impact on the stock. A company can still grow while the stock goes down, it just has to miss growth forecasts. Secondly, I mentioned the fact that Spotify and Pandora's services aren't directly comparable many times. Straight from the iHeartRadio site it says they don't have ads on custom stations: http://bit.ly/I7DJw2 but I will test it again. Personally I didn't notice any difference in the algorithms. As for no one is close in revenue here is an article on Spotify's revenue http://on.wsj.com/I7DJMi claiming it was $584.2M in 2012. Check yourself. You may be correct about music quality issue since I am not an expert in this area.
    Nov 21 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Active Users Under Pressure From Competition [View article]
    "You will not lose money buying and holding T shares for a year" clearly you have not been in the investing world long or else you don't look at historical data.
    Nov 21 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Active Users Under Pressure From Competition [View article]
    You are correct, they dropped the limit at the beginning of September. However, I still see this as a bad thing since they needed a limit in the first place due to royalty costs. A user shouldn't be able to use a service so much that the company actually loses money.
    Nov 21 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Active Users Under Pressure From Competition [View article]
    Thanks for the constructive criticism. The $36 may cheaper than $120 for Spotify or Rdio but as I tried to emphasize in the article these are completely different products. Spotify lets users select the music they want to listen to. It is like buying access to their entire library of songs. The reason that Pandora is still marked red for price is that for the service it offers (radio without ads) it is the most expensive because iTunes radio is cheaper and iHeartRadio is free. As for the skips, I was looking at the various options from the consumers perspective. If Pandora loses enough active listeners it wont matter how the skips effect its bottom line. However, you are correct I made a mistake with the 40 hour limit Pandora dropped the limit in September. The $20 price target came from the level of support Pandora stabilized around in July and August before the stock was hyped up. The "Gambling with options" line made me laugh a little. Options may not be right for everyone but in the end of the day all stock market investing is "gambling". Obviously you shouldn't allocate the same amount of capital to an option position as you would to a long or short position since an option is basically leverage. I recommended an option position since a highly volatile stock is risky to short because of the possibility of a short squeeze on a sudden jump. My point is that due to competition Pandora is very likely to decline in share price its just a matter of timing.
    Nov 21 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Active Users Under Pressure From Competition [View article]
    I believe I have both of those already in my chart that is why there is a Y/N*. Y for on demand on desktop but N for mobile.
    Nov 21 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Active Users Under Pressure From Competition [View article]
    Pandora does not limit desktop usage. I guess I didn't make that clear but it does limit mobile:

    http://usat.ly/17tUcU2

    I would bet you are just under the 40 hour limit on your iPad.
    Nov 21 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does QE Mean Anything To The Price Of Gold Anymore? [View article]
    This article does not seem to have any actual information or analysis about gold prices, it simply asks questions and leaves them unanswered. I found this article a waste of time since many of these questions are already well known.
    Nov 19 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    As a college student I see it extremely unlikely that Chegg will become the "platform of choice" for higher education, that title is much more likely to be held by Pearson since I find more and more of my classes are using the online services offered by Pearson. The only thing students use Chegg for is the homework help and it is basically last resort since people prefer to find answers for free on yahoo answers. On the other hand Pearson offers students the ability to buy textbooks online, but you only get access to the book for a limited amount of time, therefore most people don't go for this offer. Anyway people interested in getting a book online can generally find it for free in pdf format. The interesting thing about Pearson is that more teachers are requiring a mylab accounts to do homework. If you don't buy access to the lab($55-65) you cannot get credit for your homework. I have been forced to use myfinancelab (corporate finance), myeconlab (macroeconomics), masteringphysics (mechanics), and myaccountinglab.
    Nov 13 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Lumber Liquidators: The Secret To Price Damping. [View article]
    Nice article, I have been following this story closely but I am am not sure about the right time frame to set up a position. A p/e of 45 seems high for a company that appears to have no moat, however the stock seems to go up regardless. Do you have any estimates on when the share price will likely lose its current upward momentum?
    Nov 12 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Based Purchasing - An Under-Publicized, Compelling Obamacare Investment Theme [View article]
    I do not understand how you can talk about the VBP model and then claim that most of these companies will be doing better because of it. If they are forced to charge less for treatments and care then they should make less money since they make less in fees. Even with the rewards physicians can receive they still will likely not make more money because the rewards are probably less than the difference in the amount they make from fees. CERN seems like an interesting growth prospect but the P/E of 44.6 seems a bit rich for 16% growth.
    Nov 11 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Angie's List Business Model A Sham? [View article]
    I definitely agree I also own some out of the money puts on ANGI, however I didn't write an article on it because someone already had pretty much pointed out all the problems (http://bit.ly/q8jCf0). I didn't want to repeat someone else. Take a look if you haven't already, citron posted the same ideas June 12.
    Jul 11 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: Pleasant Upside If UGG Delivers [View article]
    It is interesting to read an article that makes the long case for Deckers Outdoor. However, I do have many concerns. In the long run I really think the company is doomed, and many investors clearly agree which is why there exists the large short interest. You failed to bring up many of the major concerns. Competitors are increasingly taking market share by offering almost identical products at steep discounts. This is already being seen in the fact that revenue growth has been slowing. The Ugg brand really failed to latch on, at least as far as I can tell, as a "luxury brand" that people are willing to pay premium for. I really cannot see how they can solve this problem.
    Jun 19 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Rate: When Will QE End? [View article]
    Good point, I know I did not take a very in depth look into the employment situation. In this article I was simply providing one reason why the goal of 6.5% unemployment is further away than most people realize, and therefore the end of QE is likely further away. I do plan to write a longer article were I will examine unemployment much more critically. 
    Jun 7 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Rate: When Will QE End? [View article]
    I agree with Snoopy, although this may be true in many years, I do not think it will start having a significant effect in the next 2-3 years. Many of the baby-boomers are still too young and haven't saved enough to retire early.
    Jun 7 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Rate: When Will QE End? [View article]
    I know, I didn't want to include things that are hard to prove. But what you are bringing up makes my point even stronger. It will take a long time to get unemployment back down to a reasonable level.
    Jun 7 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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