Keith Robison

5 Stock Picks for December

You mentioned a lot of good reasons to look at buying LGF, but you left out that they also have a potential blockbuster, which is soon to be released. My Bloody Valentine 3D has been marketed very well and is apparently loaded with some pretty advanced 3D technology. Despite the technology involved with the movie, it was only $20 million to produce. Based on Youtube traffic it should gross somewhere between $40M and $110M (quite a wide range, sorry)

Going Long Printing Presses and Taxes

I don't have a crystal ball, but the experts in the space I've spoke to recently are thinking 3-6 months of continued deflation. Personally I am watching the trend of the dollar and the yen to determine the final deflationary breaking point.


On Nov 11 10:48 AM jlounsbury59 wrote:

> The key word is temporary. Does it refer to months or years? If
> one can predict this time frame, they can acquire obscene wealth.

>
>
> Portfolio Guy said: "So I would go long securities that can protect
> capital from inflation, once this temporary deflationary period has
> ended."

2009 Inside Commodities Conference: Roubini vs. Rogers

Roubini seemed very sure that hyperinflation would not occur (at least before 2012) because he said that the economy in it's current state is not strong enough to handle significantly higher prices.

On Nov 12 04:58 AM jrainspe wrote:

> Don't you just love those "absolute" statements people make about
> very indeterminable events. "There will not be hyperinflation." No
> one really knows or not whether this will occur. Just like in the
> early recover of the dot com recession, we had 9/11, resulting in
> a double dip bottom. No one in the financial world could see that
> event unfolding. And, just like 9/11, another unforeseen and unforecastable
> event is waiting in the wings; no one knows what it's probability
> is because you can't estimate the probability of an event that you
> cannot define.

Focusing on Commodity ETFs: Hyperinflation Seems Inevitable

I wasn't aware of GSG, but it seems very similar to GSP. I should have included LSC, which is an interesting long/short commodity ETN.


On Dec 02 11:33 AM Fed up wrote:

> Just curious. Why didn't you include iSHARES S&P GSCI Commodity
> Index-ETF (GSG) ?

Focusing on Commodity ETFs: Hyperinflation Seems Inevitable

The former manager of the PIMCO commodity fund told us that his feeling in early November was that we still have another one or two quarters of deflation. Nobody knows for sure, so many people have been wrong, but I'm waiting for a break in UUP and FXY. Until then I'm not going to try and pick a bottom. I believe the best inflation indicator is probably the dollar.


On Dec 02 07:31 AM Jack K wrote:

> Commodities make sense at the right time. But when is the right time?
> There are any inflationary indicators. Which one is most associated
> with a rise in commodity prices?
> M1, M2, M3, gold, oil, food, dollar vs. Once they triple in price,
> it is too late to buy them.
> They all have gone up at one point, without significant inflation.
>
> What do you think, Keith?

Going Long Printing Presses and Taxes

Jim Rogers quoted that number at a conference I attended at the NYSE last week, but I don't know where he got them from.


On Nov 12 02:02 AM Kunst wrote:

> "The U.S. has $13 trillion in debt"
>
> I believe the national debt is currently $10.6 trilion (www.brillig.com/debt_c.../)
> and the federal debt limit is $11.3 trillion.
>
> Where does your $13 trillion number come from?

Going Long Printing Presses and Taxes

I was jokingly stating to go long printing presses and taxes because that is the only thing you can count on to work in the future. The article is implying however, that because we need to print our way out of the crisis, in the long run it will be inflationary and it will likely result in higher taxes. So I would go long securities that can protect capital from inflation, once this temporary deflationary period has ended.


On Nov 11 09:03 AM Pangaea wrote:

> You didn't explain what you mean by that, what you are in fact intending
> to go long.

WaMu to IndyMac Customers: Your Money's No Good Here

In case you want to know want happens if your bank goes under, I recently wrote about what is covered on my blog.

MCG Capital: Squeaking By?

Not too many people write about MCGC. I wrote up an analysis of the company 5 months ago for my clients since several of them were interested in investing in MCGC. I told them at $12 the company was a sell. The main reason for the call was a result of the research I did related to the 20% position in the teleco's. Personally I am not as bullish on the company as you are, but I also wouldn't go short here, so I guess you could say I'm neutral on the stock now. It is encouraging and rather suprising they got the deal they did on the line.