Kellie Peterson

Kellie Peterson
Contributor since: 2013
Author, excellent article. I appreciate all the time you put into your thesis and your charts and graphs. You have done a great and accurate job of summing up the true value of the ^VIX and its behaviors. I could not have written a better article.
Author, Nice article....And I agree with your most recent comment to red, looking forward to his short squeeze when his broker tells him to sell the house to cover his position....don't really wish that on anyone, but you get my point.
Excellent chart creation! It's so nice to be able to see all of the major events of the year and how they fell into place with the moves of the market, Thanks!
Nice article and well stated opinions. For the most part I agree with the author's sentiments and of course there's the saying "never try to catch a falling knife". I have been watching GRPN for a good entry and was hoping $8 would hold but now it's back to the waiting game until it can show some technical support...
Nice article.
Well written and nice summary, thanks for the article.
Thanks for the info...well done
Thanks for the update, great article!
Nice work, well planned and written, and very useful.
Enjoyed the article, good points.
And Mr. Clark, Agree with you as well, can't wait to see what tomorrow brings from the fed.
1doji: I apologize for not having written that article yet, been busy, but that's one I really want to get out there! The gist of it is a short VIX strategy or long XIV strategy (same thing) based on consistent retracements to new lower lows after VXX hits a high. But not only consistent, reliable timeframes as well, which is of utmost importance if one is buying and selling options due to their expiratory nature. The analysis I am working on is only for the short side of VXX and not to be used to enter long VXX, which is probably where we are right now in the cycle, about to see VXX rise. It has been suppressed for a long run now, and of course has the potential to continue lower, but with each bullish market day the likelihood of VXX continuing down is less and less. Eventually it will have another positive spike, and hopefully just before that spike is complete I will have finished the article so that the information can be used for the next cycle.
Mr Hilkens, Nice article and great comment section!
It would not surprise me if WHX hit $3 this time around the dividend circus....time will tell, but as you stated, even $3 is overvalued...
Another good one Sir! Great detail in upholding your statements and true to the points.
Those $5 Dec Puts have already gone past $1, good job rmgillis!
Rmgillis, Thanks for the data, and that's right in line with my theories.
Starting tomorrow and going for at least a week if not 3, there is only one direction WHX can go, down.
DEC $5 Puts seems like a good bet to me.
When I posted the last comment I hadn't looked at the chart for 15 minutes....in that 15 minutes WHX fell .83 cents or 13%.....sorry to those who were holding for the dividend, but that's why I wrote these last two articles to try and help save my readers money!
buddygoede:
In regards to your strategy, remember that since the ex-dividend date is Friday that means on Friday the dividend amount of .59 cents will be removed from the stock price which will automatically have it down. And unless it runs up more before then, we would certainly looking at an open on Friday well below $6. Cycles in stocks are not ABSOLUTE but this one has been like clockwork for quite some time with many consecutive dividends causing a very similar cycle. If this one follows the established rhythm we should expect the stock price to begin falling tomorrow (as you noted a possibility) and could easily reach $3 within 3 weeks. If you're holding for long term dividends I think "astuteinv's" math posted above is a good analysis to work from and so you can look to collect around $3 total from all of the rest of the dividend payments. If that pans out to be correct then from the current price to the dissolution of the trust a long term hold would yield around -50%. Of course upside to oil prices would change the math but I do not estimate it could change it enough to get to positive.
I wasn't expecting WHX to break $6, and here we are. Many have obviously entered in the past 3 days so they can collect .59 cents only to lose $3 when it crashes beginning at the end of this week. Will they ever learn?
Certainly increases the total value especially if the dividend continued to be higher than expected ongoing but of course there is an absolute limit to the amount of production so the main factor for an increase ongoing will be the price of oil and gas. It sure seems people chased this dividend just as much as past dividends judging from the extreme runup in price again!
My pleasure Lucas! Thanks for the comment!
I'm sure to a lot of us and maybe even the world, our markets look toppy. I think we could see a small correction over the next couple weeks in the 1.5-4% range but ending before Thanksgiving. I would consider buying XIV or SVXY cheaper just before Thanksgiving with the likelihood of a strong 20-30% move up by the end of the year.
The next dividend payment is quickly approaching for WHX and it will go ex-div within 2 weeks. If you're holding through the ex-div date I certainly hope you bought cheap because the likelihood is when WHX pays its dividend that will be the catalyst for yet another crash in its price. I would not be at all surprised if we saw it break $3 this time around. That being said, my inclination is to follow the data outlined in the article and sell WHX a day or two before ex-div date, NOT collect the div, and buy it back cheaper, a lot cheaper. Good luck!
The next dividend payment is quickly approaching for WHX and it will go ex-div within 2 weeks. If you're holding through the ex-div date I certainly hope you bought cheap because the likelihood is when WHX pays its dividend that will be the catalyst for yet another crash in its price. I would not be at all surprised if we saw it break $3 this time around. That being said, my inclination is to follow the data outlined in the article and sell WHX a day or two before ex-div date, NOT collect the div, and buy it back cheaper, a lot cheaper.
So we never got the lower low the cycle would have predicted but the price did return and rise above the $5 mark. Now the technical indicators (RSI & Stochastics) are saying the bull run of this cycle is over, but it's too early for that to be true. We'll just have to see if WHX gets a little pop before EX-DIV date in November or if the crash begins early this time. Either way I'm expecting it to hit very near if not break through $3 in the next cycle sometime in mid December.
Well written article.
At all time highs you can't blame anyone for thinking a downturn is near, but to fight a bull market which has absorbed so many political (domestic), economic, and geo-political events in one year would be foolish. The markets have been and are continuing to be funded by the FED, so why would they stop now? At least till the end of the year there are far fewer negative news events on the horizon, and knowing what this market did with many negative events, this market could really take off from here.
Great article. Of course we'll just have to wait and see, but I have to say I'm with the author on this one. The market has digested more bad news this year than I can remember and kept on plugging, how's a little debt ceiling that could destroy the entire planet going to get in the way of unreasonable optimism? It won't, just look at the first day of the government shutdown, all our markets were up and I know those who were afraid, or thought everyone else would be afraid, lost money that day...
Geologist, Thank you for your comment. What you say makes sense and I can't think of a better explanation than what you presented so I'm going to have to go with your thoughts on this one!
Quantwerks, thank you for your comment. So, the idea is that though our markets will be volatile, the actual fluctuation of price in those markets at the end of the day (or in this case 10 or so days) will be nominal, minimal. We might have many moves up and down with a net result of little change in price in the markets. Hope that clears things up, but if not, fire away again and I'll give it another shot.
Jhosmer, thank you for your comment, and I agree, of course, with your sentiment.