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Ken Solonika  

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  • Fairholme’s Bruce Berkowitz resigns from St. Joe's (JOE) board, saying he doesn't want to be part of a board where a majority of directors are not "committed to shareholder value, pay for performance, and effective corporate governance." Shares -2.6%. (previously)  [View news story]
    Never join a club that would have you as a member...
    Feb 14, 2011. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Power-One: Extremely Cheap on a 'Sum-of-the-Parts' Basis [View article]
    He identified two separate business lines, power solutions and inverters, and put a value on each. The cash has value of its own as well.

    Take away the cash and the power solutions business, and what you get is a cash generating inverter business currently selling at 5 times fully diluted trailing net income and 4 times fully diluted consensus net income estimates of $1.15 to $1.21. For this reason, not to mention Silver Lake's two board seats, it is a takeover candidate.
    Feb 13, 2011. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: A Value Play [View article]

    Over the last 12 months the DOW is up 20% while C is up 50%.

    For the last 24 months, C is up 60% with the DOW at 40%.

    Facts are stubborn.
    Feb 11, 2011. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Comprehensive Scorecard for Citron Research [View article]
    "...76% accuracy rate of recognizing and predicting failure."

    Not exactly.

    Reflexivity is at work here: the negative attack pieces, accurate or inaccurate, are very, very damaging to a company, its business to business relationships and to investor relations, so in that sense they also cause the very thing they supposedly predict.
    Feb 11, 2011. 07:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Power-One: Extremely Cheap on a 'Sum-of-the-Parts' Basis [View article]
    Could you assess or address any incentives at work for Silver Lake, which has two seats on the board and a large minority stake in the company, to push for a buy-out offer?

    Thanks in advance.
    Feb 11, 2011. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Picks: A 50% to 70% Upside? [View article]
    Ah yes, my pro forma life: if last night my wife had looked a lot more like Jillian Beyor, I would not have faked a headache.
    Feb 11, 2011. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Picks: A 50% to 70% Upside? [View article]
    Good post!

    A little quibble about Power-One -

    "But there are a few caveats: ...the company had to issue a large chunk of preferred stock when it was in distress a few years ago. When converted into common shares, the share count could rise by 40 million to 50 million."

    Correct me if I am wrong, but the convertibles are already counted in the reported fully diluted EPS of .96, so there is no dilution hanging over PWER.

    Consensus is in the 1.15 to 1.21 range moving forward, which means PWER is trading for a little over a forward P/E of 7.

    Add in cash and little debt, growth (though not as much as expected), and an activist institutional owner in Silver Lake that may push PWER to seek a buy out offer, PWER seems like a good pick.
    Feb 11, 2011. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • “I think it’s a terrible idea and I hope it can be stopped,” former Goldman Sachs (GS) co-chair John Whitehead says of the NYSE’s (NYX) plan to be acquired by Germany’s Deutsche Boerse (DBOEY.PK). “It would be an insult to New York City, and New York State, and indeed to all America.”  [View news story]
    "I think it's a terrible insult to America," said GS.

    How dare Germany treat Whitehead's manservant like this.
    Feb 11, 2011. 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: A Value Play [View article]
    I already own C and bought it very cheap as a risky speculative turn around play (with government help). I do not know if it is now a value play or if it is still speculative, but I lean to the latter rather than the former.

    I'd like to see the bad bank completely sold off, with late 2011 or early 2012 witnessing a token dividend and a substantive share repurchase program to eventually eliminate half or more of the float, with no R/S.
    Feb 10, 2011. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Travel's Growing Institutional Ownership a Bullish Sign [View article]
    UTA was already the subject of a bear raid this fall. You may want to read up on the claims and the response.

    The chart shows when UTA was attacked:

    I do not own UTA but have been looking at it, not only because of the numbers but also because it has already been "hit" and survived.

    CCME is now the small float punk of the month for short sellers.
    Feb 9, 2011. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Obama's Half Measures Won't Save the States [View article]
    Grantham proposed two solutions to unemployment:

    (1) The government should hire workers directly

    (2) The government should bribe employers to hire

    Whatever one thinks of the merits of either idea, both seem much better than giving aid to the States to pay unemployment benefits.
    Feb 9, 2011. 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Graham's Stock Valuing Formula: It Really Works [View article]
    Didn't he also provide another version:

    Trailing 12 months EPS [8.5 (2g)] 4.4

    divided by the current yield on corporate AA bonds
    Feb 9, 2011. 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northrop Grumman (NOC): Q4 EPS of $1.27 beats by $0.26. Revenue of $8.61B (-3.6% Y/Y) misses by $0.19B. (PR)  [View news story]
    I wonder how many of those with negative home equity are also upside down on their autos and carrying revolving credit debt.
    Feb 9, 2011. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genco Shipping & Trading: Value Investment in a Rebounding Industry [View article]
    Too much reading of CCME write ups. I forgot that longs and shorts can and sometimes do remain civil.

    I too have been looking at shipping. The supply problem, asset depreciation, and likely "thinning of the herd" makes this a very hard call for me with respect to putting a value on any of these firms.

    I suspect that the worst is not yet over, as many firms will have to cut their dividends or dilute, or both.

    Thanks for the write up - and the response by the short.
    Feb 7, 2011. 11:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can China MediaExpress Recover in Round Three? [View article]
    To quote: "Muddy clearly discloses that it takes care to present the facts and 'makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness' of information in its research reports."

    The first part of the sentence is incongruent with the second part.

    One cannot "present facts" and then in the same breath state that "accuracy" is not implied. It is garbage penny stock alert language, nothing more.

    Neither long nor short, though I did day trade today for + $2,150, and I suspect that the volatility train is less than half way around the track on this one.

    As for the brevity of the shareholder letter, CCME is likely well aware that Citron and MW might have another shot or two and as such it is possible that CCME held back some of its own bullets.
    Feb 7, 2011. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment