Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Ken Solonika  

View Ken Solonika's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Waldo Thinks Ahead [View instapost]

    "The company operates a chain of retail stores that sell any manner of completely and utterly worthless stuff for the home."

    You must not be married.
    Feb 5, 2011. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: Groundwork, Research, And Videos to Disprove Allegations [View article]
    Yeah, I think it may drop below $15.25...
    Feb 3, 2011. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: Groundwork, Research, And Videos to Disprove Allegations [View article]
    $11.70 now. Nearly 30%.

    Stop losses obliterated.

    MW site is down for the CCME report - likely server overload.
    Feb 3, 2011. 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: Groundwork, Research, And Videos to Disprove Allegations [View article]
    Down 16% or so. $13.95. LOD $13.62, I think.

    Muddy Waters out with a report.

    Put activity explained now, I guess.

    MW claims CCME is lying about its Apple contract, inter alia.
    Feb 3, 2011. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: Groundwork, Research, And Videos to Disprove Allegations [View article]
    One thing I do not understand Citron's "too good to be true" insinuation. A back of the envelope mental calculation for me when I begin looking at a U.S. listed Chinese firm is this:

    Twelve months trailing EPS x [8.5(2g)]

    g is the rate of revenue growth, not to exceed 25%

    I am looking for firms with no debt, cash and margins that are trading for less than the above formula. Though there are not a lot of firms that pass this test, there are some. And there are even some for U.S. (or non-China) firms. Until very recently, TNAV, a broken IPO, was trading at a +30% discount to its trailing 12 months EPS.

    CCME = $21.33 (now trading in the $16s)
    OINK = $7.83 (now trading in the low $5s)
    TNAV = $8.82 (traded in the $4 to $7 range until recently)

    BBVA and STD recently traded below trailing EPS. At various points over the last two years there have been a significant number of US large caps - with dividends - trading below trailing EPS.

    It does not happen a lot, but it does happen. Sometimes it occurs for good reason and other times it is fear based or the market overlooking a micro or small cap firm.

    There are not a lot of firms that pass this back of the envelope screen, but there some. To claim that CCMe is "too good to be true" is merely a scare tactic - Left establishes no criterion to judge whether a firm is "too good to be true"; instead he merely asserts the claim and then moves on to "phantom" language and hyperbole.
    Feb 3, 2011. 10:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irony alert: The NYSE issues a reminder that gambling is not allowed on the trading floor. Perhaps Captain Renault should deliver the message.  [View news story]
    Shares of the NYSE - an RTO - declined precipitously on heavy volume in after hours trading...
    Jan 27, 2011. 06:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. - China Currency War: Should the U.S. Fight Back by Defaulting? [View article]
    The "Free and Solvent states of the South..."

    The Southern states are not self solvent. They receive Federal welfare in the form of getting back + $2 dollars for every dollar they pay in.

    If Mississippi and Georgia and Texas and the rest want to secede, let them. The bases close. The Federal money stops flowing in, and soon they raise taxes or go under. And as services decline even further in a "free" South, the educated flee, further eroding its financial position.
    Jan 24, 2011. 03:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Globalization Capital, Inc. (NYSE Amex: IGC) - Will the Ban on Indian Iron Ore be Lifted? [View instapost]
    Companies that spend more money than they make aren't worth anything.

    "Consolidated net income loss for the three months ended September 30, 2010 was $859 thousand compared to a consolidated net loss of $592 thousand for the same period in 2009. This quarter the charges related to debt amortization and non-cash interest were about $.37 Million. The loss per basic share for the quarter was ($.06) per share, compared to ($.06) per share for the September quarter ended 2009."
    Jan 23, 2011. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in Chinese Stocks: How to Avoid Fraud and Dilution [View article]
    With respect to dilution, a small cap firm must reach a point where growth is funded with plowed profits or through financing, or some combination of both; "other peoples' money syndrome" is something to run from. If they don't have the cash and a bank will not provide a line of credit, then maybe the numbers and business model deserve extra scrutiny, a heightened paranoia reference outright fraud or revenue enhancement.
    Jan 21, 2011. 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Education Alliance: A Fantastic Investment Opportunity Courtesy of Short Sellers [View article]
    In 1999 (if I remember the year right, it may have been as early as 1998) Enron referenced in the notes both LMJ1 and LMJ2. The red flags were there, out in the open for everyone to see. All one had to do was read their reports.
    Jan 21, 2011. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Education Alliance: A Fantastic Investment Opportunity Courtesy of Short Sellers [View article]
    I have no position if CEU. I would agree that cash is a great place to start when looking at any company's financials - the top line, revenue, can be fudged, as can the bottom line, net income. Capitalization rates, orders, inventory - all are easily to manipulate. Cash, on the other hand, like physical evidence, never lies.
    Jan 21, 2011. 02:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and other banks have met with Treasury officials to pitch their idea that private companies, perhaps even themselves, should become the new housing finance giants helping to bundle individual mortgages into securities - complete with an explicit government guarantee.  [View news story]
    GS meeting with Treasury officials...

    So it was a company meeting is what you are saying.
    Jan 21, 2011. 09:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyPeople Fruit Juice: Sky High Stock Opportunity for Value Investors [View article]
    Imagine a microcap trader who was so lazy he only used Google to do equities research, and who was so haphazard in his logic that he compared a microcap in a developing country to horizontally and vertically integrated large caps with billion dollar capitalizations.

    Did you not know that Minute Maid is owned by Coke? Really?

    Try a little harder, Alish.

    For starters, IR will provide addresses in the US where you can purchase their products, though it will not be easy and will likely requiring driving for awhile. Also, it is frozen fruit juice concentrate, so sampling may not be possible (or advisable).

    SPU's major distributors are Cargill in the US, Wild in Europe, and LOTTE in Asia. These distributors are heavyweights in their markets and would be "costly to fake." If SPU had no relationship with these distributors it would have come up. Again, SPU's IR can provide contact information for their distributors.

    My real interest in SPU is the entry into the retail domestic market in China, specifically the cities.

    The question is whether they will be able to capture a market share in the major cities. In the 6 months they have been trying, there has been little success, but I am willing to hold my shares (and my profits - about 18%) for another CC and report. If they only gain a small percent share in major cities the firm could take off. If they are not able to show market penetration in the cities, then I will exit.
    Jan 19, 2011. 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perils of Investing in China [View article]
    Anecdota and feelings do not equate to analysis.
    Jan 18, 2011. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) will only allow non-U.S. investors to take a stake in Facebook, saying it "concluded the level of media attention might not be consistent with the proper completion of a U.S. private placement under U.S. law." Whoops.  [View news story]
    The WSJ piece states that FB is directing those with questions to contact GS.
    Jan 17, 2011. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment