Kenard Grant - Seeking Alpha 'Kenard Grant' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/kenard-grant ESCO Technologies: Bound to Fall? http://seekingalpha.com/article/86990-esco-technologies-bound-to-fall?source=feed 86990 ESCO Technologies, Inc. (ESE) has three product lines.

The first is their communications segment [DCSI], which accounted for 37% of revenue in 2007, manufactures two-way power line communication systems, including meter modules and equipment for central stations and substations known as advanced Metering Instruments [AMI] and Advanced Meter Reading [AMR].  DCSI is considered by management and analysts to be Esco’s growth segment.

]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 04:33:29 -0400 Kenard Grant ESCO Technologies, Inc. (ESE) has three product lines.

The first is their communications segment [DCSI], which accounted for 37% of revenue in 2007, manufactures two-way power line communication systems, including meter modules and equipment for central stations and substations known as advanced Metering Instruments [AMI] and Advanced Meter Reading [AMR].  DCSI is considered by management and analysts to be Esco’s growth segment.


Complete Story »]]> ESE Kenard Grant Response to Raymond James' Q3 Conference Call http://seekingalpha.com/article/86742-response-to-raymond-james-q3-conference-call?source=feed 86742 I want to bring to the attention of those who might follow Raymond James (RJF) my response to their earnings call, in which I invite the company to host an analyst day open to all investors, not just selected brokerage firms.

I'm less concerned about publicizing an issue that would help the shorts and more interested in raising an important philosophical issue. In my opinion, RJF is a case study of the arbitrary and unfair nature of how different regulatory rules can result in the massive destruction or preservation of wealth. This fact is of primary concern in this market, where we see major brokerages getting almost wiped out (Bear, Lehman, etc) when they may have similar risk profiles to other companies (RJF) that are also public but don't have to play by the same rules. I think this example speaks well to a constant critique of how regulation via the Fed, Treasury Dept. and SEC can play a role in the current state of credit markets and financials.

]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:04:00 -0400 Kenard Grant I want to bring to the attention of those who might follow Raymond James (RJF) my response to their earnings call, in which I invite the company to host an analyst day open to all investors, not just selected brokerage firms.

I'm less concerned about publicizing an issue that would help the shorts and more interested in raising an important philosophical issue. In my opinion, RJF is a case study of the arbitrary and unfair nature of how different regulatory rules can result in the massive destruction or preservation of wealth. This fact is of primary concern in this market, where we see major brokerages getting almost wiped out (Bear, Lehman, etc) when they may have similar risk profiles to other companies (RJF) that are also public but don't have to play by the same rules. I think this example speaks well to a constant critique of how regulation via the Fed, Treasury Dept. and SEC can play a role in the current state of credit markets and financials.


Complete Story »]]> RJF Kenard Grant Risk/Reward of Owning REITs, Raymond James in this Boom Bust Cycle http://seekingalpha.com/article/84201-risk-reward-of-owning-reits-raymond-james-in-this-boom-bust-cycle?source=feed 84201 We know the conventional method of security analysis is to try and predict the future course of earnings and then to estimate the price that investors may be willing to pay for those earnings. This method is inappropriate to the analysis of mortgage trusts because the price that investors are willing to pay for the shares is an important factor in determining the future course of earnings (the same can be said for a conglomerate boom, where companies make acquisition using shares rather then cash/debt).

There are three factors that reinforce each other and will help in determining the price of REITs.

]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 04:21:14 -0400 Kenard Grant We know the conventional method of security analysis is to try and predict the future course of earnings and then to estimate the price that investors may be willing to pay for those earnings. This method is inappropriate to the analysis of mortgage trusts because the price that investors are willing to pay for the shares is an important factor in determining the future course of earnings (the same can be said for a conglomerate boom, where companies make acquisition using shares rather then cash/debt).

There are three factors that reinforce each other and will help in determining the price of REITs.


Complete Story »]]> RJF VNQ Kenard Grant Revisiting the Cotton Trade http://seekingalpha.com/article/80139-revisiting-the-cotton-trade?source=feed 80139 Directions in several key fundamentals portend strength in cotton prices as we move into the remaining months of the 2007/2008 season.

First, world production is expected to decrease 2.2% to 118 million bales in 2008/2009 and consumption is expected to increase 2.1% to 127 million bales. The market will enter a period where world consumption has exceeded world production for three consecutive years. This situation in 2008/2009 will reduce word ending stocks by an estimated 10%.

]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 04:21:17 -0400 Kenard Grant Directions in several key fundamentals portend strength in cotton prices as we move into the remaining months of the 2007/2008 season.

First, world production is expected to decrease 2.2% to 118 million bales in 2008/2009 and consumption is expected to increase 2.1% to 127 million bales. The market will enter a period where world consumption has exceeded world production for three consecutive years. This situation in 2008/2009 will reduce word ending stocks by an estimated 10%.


Complete Story »]]> DBC GSG RJA Kenard Grant Gaiam Shooting for Explosive Organic Growth http://seekingalpha.com/article/69801-gaiam-shooting-for-explosive-organic-growth?source=feed 69801 As investors in this environment we need to be looking for businesses that will drive revenues with little leverage. We’ve all heard the buzz around solar and who hasn’t yet been invited to a friend’s Pilates class? Think of our friends who are doing this: they are typically well paid, well educated, driven women in secure corporate positions and they’re getting us – the out of shape, looking for a new workout, modern man – to join them. I sought out to find some companies that brought together profit with platform innovation which would be able to direct traffic towards their product platform without spending a lot of capital.

So, as an opportunity hunter in a market that has taken it to retailers, I look for ideas that generate cash, have strong growth potential, mitigated downside risk and operate with little debt. Let’s talk about what we know: retailers who have developed strong customer databases and loyalty do well cross selling new product lines; we want to invest in asset light businesses holding little inventory; and corporate America is turning to wholesome workouts like Pilates and Yoga in massive numbers.

]]> Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:24:36 -0400 Kenard Grant As investors in this environment we need to be looking for businesses that will drive revenues with little leverage. We’ve all heard the buzz around solar and who hasn’t yet been invited to a friend’s Pilates class? Think of our friends who are doing this: they are typically well paid, well educated, driven women in secure corporate positions and they’re getting us – the out of shape, looking for a new workout, modern man – to join them. I sought out to find some companies that brought together profit with platform innovation which would be able to direct traffic towards their product platform without spending a lot of capital.

So, as an opportunity hunter in a market that has taken it to retailers, I look for ideas that generate cash, have strong growth potential, mitigated downside risk and operate with little debt. Let’s talk about what we know: retailers who have developed strong customer databases and loyalty do well cross selling new product lines; we want to invest in asset light businesses holding little inventory; and corporate America is turning to wholesome workouts like Pilates and Yoga in massive numbers.


Complete Story »]]> GAIA Kenard Grant The Rise of Cotton, the Decline of Supply http://seekingalpha.com/article/66398-the-rise-of-cotton-the-decline-of-supply?source=feed 66398 Think for a moment as a cotton farmer. You have a fixed amount of acreage, which you typically divvy up accordingly: 50% to cotton and the other 50% to a range of three different crops: corn, soybeans and wheat. Due to planting seasons – we’ll get into the specifics of this in a moment - and the climate of the region, you have constrained yourself to the national average of growing 3 types of crop on your farm. Remember, as a farmer, you look to the futures prices to determine how to allocate acreage so you can harvest the most profitable crop next year.

Now imagine for a moment that out of your normal crop of corn, wheat and cotton (a typical Texas cotton farmer's farm make-up), two of your crops have futures trading at record highs. When you factor in the average costs and yield for each of the three crops to determine your profitability, it would take a rise in your third, lonely, crop of roughly 35% to be on profitability par with the other two. This is the pricing incentive causing farmers in the Southwest and Texas to allocate more of their farms land to soybeans, corn and/or wheat then in past years. As a result, America is witnessing a decrease in planted acres of cotton for next season.

]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 02:36:54 -0500 Kenard Grant Think for a moment as a cotton farmer. You have a fixed amount of acreage, which you typically divvy up accordingly: 50% to cotton and the other 50% to a range of three different crops: corn, soybeans and wheat. Due to planting seasons – we’ll get into the specifics of this in a moment - and the climate of the region, you have constrained yourself to the national average of growing 3 types of crop on your farm. Remember, as a farmer, you look to the futures prices to determine how to allocate acreage so you can harvest the most profitable crop next year.

Now imagine for a moment that out of your normal crop of corn, wheat and cotton (a typical Texas cotton farmer's farm make-up), two of your crops have futures trading at record highs. When you factor in the average costs and yield for each of the three crops to determine your profitability, it would take a rise in your third, lonely, crop of roughly 35% to be on profitability par with the other two. This is the pricing incentive causing farmers in the Southwest and Texas to allocate more of their farms land to soybeans, corn and/or wheat then in past years. As a result, America is witnessing a decrease in planted acres of cotton for next season.


Complete Story »]]> DJP RJA Kenard Grant