Kenn Wagenheim

Kenn Wagenheim
Contributor since: 2012
Company: 21x20 Media, Inc.
Thanks! I'm well behind on any replies... but:
I moved out of this some time back and rolled some profits into a Jan '14 $32 and Jan '15 $40, taking the rest out in cash.
Just last week, I sold the Jan '14 $32 :-) and rolled some of that into a Jan '15 $50 to go with the $40. I foresee holding both of those for a while.
Overall, it's been a very profitable trade, for sure!
... Wait, so AAPL's not going out of business this week?!?! ;-)
Yeah... email alerts on this are broke. Please fix it, asap.
... Margin compression, just like what happen to the Macs declining in share because of the high margins? Oh wait... I guess we should all keep waiting for that.
Glad to see AAPL not participate in the race to the bottom of their competitors!
Who? Are you suggesting Apple made a product no one will buy? Or are you seriously asking? Just curious.
Could be worse... GOOG is down almost 13% in 24 hours. ;-)
Got my iPhone 5 as well. Speaking of Rome, check it out on the 3D maps views. Pretty cool. ;-)
I just don't understand these "articles" referring to Jobs as some godly stopper of bad products. Amongst other "failures", Steve Jobs oversaw the release of Mobile Me, iPhone 4's antenna issues and Ping.
And surely "people" realize he was the one who called out the war on Android. Very likely it was under his tenure that the in-house maps movement started and gained traction.
Anyone suggesting that Jobs had the ability to make maps perfect in the time allotted (namely before the end of the GOOG/AAPL contract) is kidding themselves for the sake of a headline. ;-)
And oh the irony...
Joshua Topolsky: "The iPhone 5 is unquestionably the best iPhone ever made ... but right now Apple seems to be in a holding pattern, too comfortable or too scared to take real chances."
Um, yeah... So on one hand Apple moved to in-house maps likely before they were ready to do so. On the other hand, they're not taking any real chances.
Confusing, to say the least. ;-)
I just don't understand these "articles"... or news tidbits, whatever they are.
Amongst other "failures", Steve Jobs oversaw the release of Mobile Me, iPhone 4's antenna issues and Ping.
And surely "people" realize he was the one who called out the war on Android. Very likely it was under his tenure that the in-house maps movement started and gained traction.
Anyone suggesting that Jobs had the ability to make maps perfect in the time allotted (namely before the end of the GOOG/AAPL contract) is kidding themselves for the sake of a headline.
I have no problems with maps. Upgraded on my 4S Wednesday and haven't had any of the issues I've heard people complain about.
Have my iPhone 5 in hand and experimenting with turn by turn nav while my wife is driving. No issues so far. I guess I'm just lucky! ;-)
But wow is this thing thin, light and the size is perfect.
Again, there's that subjectiveness with "a lot". Doesn't something need to be in perspective to be useful? If two million people upgraded to iOS6 today and 50 complain vocally on twitter, is that really "a lot"?
IMHO, there should be some type of quantitative approach before using words as subjective as "a lot" or "many".
Since I don't have a blog, I suppose that makes my opinion that iOS6 maps are better for my personal purposes "a little less" important. ;-)
Well, it is officially out today. I just installed the update to iOS6 on my 4S.
And I have no issue with maps. I never used street view before (though someone above says it wasn't even in iOS5)... and I don't use public transit.
I do think the maps system is overall more responsive and I like the Apple interface tweaks. My humble opinion. ;-)
... Could you elaborate further on "many"?
Rather than just say "many" with some sky-is-falling snippet, perhaps give us some more meat -- like an estimation of how many users have upgraded to iOS6 vs the percentage of upgradees that are complaining about the maps app?
Got my two iPhone 5 pre-orders in at 12:30 eastern via Apple's site. See ya in a week, you gorgeous new piece of phone! ;-)
Ouch. You're down. But good luck!
From my perspective, I use my iPhone probably more than any device ever. The screen real estate and faster procs made it a no brainer for me. Yes, I wanted only taller, not wider. My pockets can't handle wider.
All things considered, I look at it a few $ a day over the life of it and that will be well worth it to me.
That's a good question... I didn't even notice that when I looked at the author's 2013 EPS.
... That's interesting... but the earnings numbers are a little off.

Looking for a Q1'13 in the $22-$23+ range on huge iPhone 5 (37 million -> 50+ million) and huger iPad numbers -- only 11 million iPads Q1'12... likely to slaughter that with 25+ million iPads... perhaps 30+ million with an October mini launch.
Well over $60 EPS for '13 is easily within reason. IMHO, of course.
I think it's generally wishful thinking to expect any huge beat thanks to iPod sales, of any flavor. It's not going to be enough volume or margin to move the needle that much. I'd say that's extra true should we see the expected iPad mini.
For the record, I'm looking for somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 5.5+ million macs (depending on iMac/mini refresh in October) for the holiday quarter. I think these pieces alone gives us an eye for $24+ EPS for Q1'13...
From that perspective, a few million lower end iPod units become a rounding error on the profit side of things... Though, sure, every bit helps. ;-)
Btw, there's plenty of people who refer to it as the iTouch. Some of the peeps here need to chill. Yeah, that's right - I said 'peeps' should 'chill' over the 'iTouch' thing.
Yeah, that NOK investment is working out good. Wrong thread, though.
Time will tell. ;-) AAPL certainly has enough upgrades in the pipeline. I can't decide if there's any acknowledgement here that people new to an iPhone are waiting for the 5 -- is the suggestion no such people exist or is the suggestion that this segment is tiny? (I know at least a few flip-phone users who still text on a number pad who are likely look at the iPhone 5 once it arrives.)
And I don't agree there will be as much anticipation for an iPhone 6 as the pattern should be more clear this cycle. iPhone 3G, iPhone 3Gs, iPhone 4, iPhone 4S. The next will likely be an iPhone 5, then 5S the following year; it should be an incremental upgrade cycle.
Silly people... Smartphone sales growth has slowed dramatically because people are waiting on the iPhone. Duh. ;-)
People aren't buying iPhones en masse because they're waiting on the iPhone 5. So if they're not buying a Samsung Galaxy IIIS, we're just to assume they're buying prepaid phones instead?
Is there no logic in reasoning the same release that's supposed to add .5% to US GDP is also the very same reason why overall smartphone growth has slowed? Sorry -- sounds like a "Duh." moment to me.
... I wonder if they would keep $3.99 for overnight to Mars with Prime...
@mtrader87:
Clearly, the author makes their own predictions based on their own methodologies in coming up with their suggestion to sell AAPL -- or they were just looking for article views *wink*.
You're suggesting predictions of a stock going down are in some way better than predictions of a stock going up. My predictions are based on my own research, trend watching, unit sale charting, etc. While I'd say the author's "guess" is as good as mine, clearly I think mine is far better.
As for room for doubts... In my humble opinion, you're on the wrong end of the doubt spectrum if you're expecting the iPhone 5 to flop... and/or for any of their competitors to put together a comprehensive defense against AAPL's long term strategy. While I don't doubt that it is possible, I'd note these competitors have been trying since the iPod was introduced over a decade ago. I have no reason believe their day has come just yet.
All that and I didn't even mention the likelihood that an iPad Mini will ship in October and become category killer by November. I'd hate to be trying to put on a bullish position AFTER all of this happens. (At that point I'm guessing it might be time to take a break and some profits.

Good luck to you, as well. ;-)
~~Kenn
Kevin,
Your chart puts too much emphasis and importance on last quarter's dip. I'd suggest you look more into the future with your chart.
In particular, I'm looking for $10+ EPS for Q4'12 -- how much past $10 depends on how many iPhone 5's get shipping in September. Q4 isn't as important, though, as the likely $21+ EPS for Q1'13; a few $ more if the iPad Mini actually is debut'd in October.
With all that, we're very likely to see the beginning of steady dividend increases early in '13. AAPL is giving $12 a share on earnings this year of roughly $42.50. EPS next full year likely to be $74... a 75% YOY increase.
Good luck. ;-)
~~Kenn
Clearly an article to "earn" views and $$ from the great SeekingAlpha CPM rate. The real shame is that SA pays the same for a thoughtless, half page article like this as it does for other more in-depth and intelligent pieces. ;-) At the same time, can't fault the author to taking advantage of a system that begs to be taken advantage of in this way.
Glenn, if I could like your post twice I would. Well done.
Tough to say David. ;-) I think there's definitely more room to run up ahead of the announcement. Bare in mind that this option expires September 22nd, which is theoretically the day after the iPhone 5 will start shipping. (That's been tipped as Friday September 21st.)
I had a lot of profit in my account today and sold a Sep $660 Call for about 500% profit. (This was purchased after the earnings release.) That said, it was roughly only 10% of my AAPL options holding and a simple "take some profits off the table" move. I'm very hopeful there's a lot more upside -- but I was pretty much "all in" from some calls I purchased post earnings. I wanted to have some cash should there be a pull back.
The Samsung trial is an interesting potential catalyst... AAPL clearly feels very strongly they're going to win. (Though one could say the same for Samsung...) If AAPL does win, it could mean more upside -- perhaps not really from a $$ standpoint, but more from a symbolic standpoint in AAPL's fight against Android.
Yeah, I never made it back to note, but I've played a variety of calls since the article was written. I bought a few before earnings and more after. I definitely had some expire on Friday, but am well ahead. ;-) I'm currently holding Sep 660, 675, 690, 705 and some remnant 775's that were worthless and now not. ;-) I rolled down the 760 and 765 I bought based on my article into the lower strikes since earnings. I also have Oct, Nov, Jan '13, Feb and Apr calls.2
I still think the stock is severely undervalued and will play "catch up" this fall with the iPhone 5, a huge iPad quarter, a likely iPad-mini intro, etc etc. ;-)
Since it's an ETF, I believe you have to buy it via a broker, like a stock. I briefly looked over PIMCO's site and didn't find anything about direct investments.