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Kenn Wagenheim

 
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  • Without Steve Jobs, Apple Is Without A Map [View article]
    Got my iPhone 5 as well. Speaking of Rome, check it out on the 3D maps views. Pretty cool. ;-)
    Sep 23 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Without Steve Jobs, Apple Is Without A Map [View article]
    I just don't understand these "articles" referring to Jobs as some godly stopper of bad products. Amongst other "failures", Steve Jobs oversaw the release of Mobile Me, iPhone 4's antenna issues and Ping.

    And surely "people" realize he was the one who called out the war on Android. Very likely it was under his tenure that the in-house maps movement started and gained traction.

    Anyone suggesting that Jobs had the ability to make maps perfect in the time allotted (namely before the end of the GOOG/AAPL contract) is kidding themselves for the sake of a headline. ;-)
    Sep 23 01:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Punkslaps Apple - Cook Makes Strategic Error [View article]
    I have no problems with maps. Upgraded on my 4S Wednesday and haven't had any of the issues I've heard people complain about.

    Have my iPhone 5 in hand and experimenting with turn by turn nav while my wife is driving. No issues so far. I guess I'm just lucky! ;-)

    But wow is this thing thin, light and the size is perfect.
    Sep 21 02:26 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 45% Upside Potential [View article]
    That's a good question... I didn't even notice that when I looked at the author's 2013 EPS.
    Sep 14 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 45% Upside Potential [View article]
    ... That's interesting... but the earnings numbers are a little off.

    Looking for a Q1'13 in the $22-$23+ range on huge iPhone 5 (37 million -> 50+ million) and huger iPad numbers -- only 11 million iPads Q1'12... likely to slaughter that with 25+ million iPads... perhaps 30+ million with an October mini launch.

    Well over $60 EPS for '13 is easily within reason. IMHO, of course.
    Sep 14 02:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iTouch: Apple's Real Weapon [View article]
    I think it's generally wishful thinking to expect any huge beat thanks to iPod sales, of any flavor. It's not going to be enough volume or margin to move the needle that much. I'd say that's extra true should we see the expected iPad mini.

    For the record, I'm looking for somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 5.5+ million macs (depending on iMac/mini refresh in October) for the holiday quarter. I think these pieces alone gives us an eye for $24+ EPS for Q1'13...

    From that perspective, a few million lower end iPod units become a rounding error on the profit side of things... Though, sure, every bit helps. ;-)

    Btw, there's plenty of people who refer to it as the iTouch. Some of the peeps here need to chill. Yeah, that's right - I said 'peeps' should 'chill' over the 'iTouch' thing.
    Sep 13 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Sell Apple [View article]
    @mtrader87:

    Clearly, the author makes their own predictions based on their own methodologies in coming up with their suggestion to sell AAPL -- or they were just looking for article views *wink*.

    You're suggesting predictions of a stock going down are in some way better than predictions of a stock going up. My predictions are based on my own research, trend watching, unit sale charting, etc. While I'd say the author's "guess" is as good as mine, clearly I think mine is far better.

    As for room for doubts... In my humble opinion, you're on the wrong end of the doubt spectrum if you're expecting the iPhone 5 to flop... and/or for any of their competitors to put together a comprehensive defense against AAPL's long term strategy. While I don't doubt that it is possible, I'd note these competitors have been trying since the iPod was introduced over a decade ago. I have no reason believe their day has come just yet.

    All that and I didn't even mention the likelihood that an iPad Mini will ship in October and become category killer by November. I'd hate to be trying to put on a bullish position AFTER all of this happens. (At that point I'm guessing it might be time to take a break and some profits.

    Good luck to you, as well. ;-)
    ~~Kenn
    Aug 29 01:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Sell Apple [View article]
    Kevin,

    Your chart puts too much emphasis and importance on last quarter's dip. I'd suggest you look more into the future with your chart.

    In particular, I'm looking for $10+ EPS for Q4'12 -- how much past $10 depends on how many iPhone 5's get shipping in September. Q4 isn't as important, though, as the likely $21+ EPS for Q1'13; a few $ more if the iPad Mini actually is debut'd in October.

    With all that, we're very likely to see the beginning of steady dividend increases early in '13. AAPL is giving $12 a share on earnings this year of roughly $42.50. EPS next full year likely to be $74... a 75% YOY increase.

    Good luck. ;-)
    ~~Kenn
    Aug 28 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook's Apple Mistakes Piling Up [View article]
    Clearly an article to "earn" views and $$ from the great SeekingAlpha CPM rate. The real shame is that SA pays the same for a thoughtless, half page article like this as it does for other more in-depth and intelligent pieces. ;-) At the same time, can't fault the author to taking advantage of a system that begs to be taken advantage of in this way.
    Aug 23 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modified Deep Discount Strategy For Apple, Geared Towards More Aggressive Investors [View article]
    Glenn, if I could like your post twice I would. Well done.
    Aug 21 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Apple Lottery For $100 [View article]
    Tough to say David. ;-) I think there's definitely more room to run up ahead of the announcement. Bare in mind that this option expires September 22nd, which is theoretically the day after the iPhone 5 will start shipping. (That's been tipped as Friday September 21st.)

    I had a lot of profit in my account today and sold a Sep $660 Call for about 500% profit. (This was purchased after the earnings release.) That said, it was roughly only 10% of my AAPL options holding and a simple "take some profits off the table" move. I'm very hopeful there's a lot more upside -- but I was pretty much "all in" from some calls I purchased post earnings. I wanted to have some cash should there be a pull back.

    The Samsung trial is an interesting potential catalyst... AAPL clearly feels very strongly they're going to win. (Though one could say the same for Samsung...) If AAPL does win, it could mean more upside -- perhaps not really from a $$ standpoint, but more from a symbolic standpoint in AAPL's fight against Android.
    Aug 20 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Apple Lottery For $100 [View article]
    Yeah, I never made it back to note, but I've played a variety of calls since the article was written. I bought a few before earnings and more after. I definitely had some expire on Friday, but am well ahead. ;-) I'm currently holding Sep 660, 675, 690, 705 and some remnant 775's that were worthless and now not. ;-) I rolled down the 760 and 765 I bought based on my article into the lower strikes since earnings. I also have Oct, Nov, Jan '13, Feb and Apr calls.2

    I still think the stock is severely undervalued and will play "catch up" this fall with the iPhone 5, a huge iPad quarter, a likely iPad-mini intro, etc etc. ;-)
    Aug 20 03:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Really In Trouble? [View article]
    5 total BB10 phones sold? That would about match the amount of the first playbook they sold...
    Aug 2 03:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Apple Lottery For $100 [View article]
    Well, though I missed the earnings bump I was hoping for, part 2 of the thesis, the new iPhone, is now very officially rumored for September 12th. With the moves up since earnings, the call is back to being less than 50% down. A bit more of a move up and it will be into profit... Of course I would have loved to time it all perfectly, I picked the September call for good reason and hopefully that pays off.
    Aug 1 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shareholders: Do Not Hit The Panic Button [View article]
    iPad market share was 100%. It has to drop. It makes no sense to make such an argument when Apple created the category.
    Jul 27 08:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Kenn Wagenheim
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149 Comments
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