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Kenneth Arnold

 
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  • Is Tesla Model S Really A Quality Green Car? [View article]
    SeekingAlpha needs to do something about people who post dishonest reviews like this one to bolster their short positions.
    Jun 21 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was I Wrong? Reassessing American Capital Agency's Situation [View article]
    Chris,
    Your analysis hangs on "This is because the Fed does taper in December, we will see a moderate increase in the ten year from 2.5% to as high as 3.25%."
    Where is the support for this statement?
    Ken
    Nov 9 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 mREITs That Survived A Hellish Quarter Yielding 14% [View article]
    Thanks for another fine analysis. With the taper looming, it seemed time to lighten up on mREITs in favor of BDCs and mREIT preferred issues. Could you comment on the risk-reward profile of those sectors?
    Aug 14 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: A Sinking Ship? [View article]
    Gary Kain doubled his position in AGNC on May 13th. They appear to be grant shares.
    FORM 4 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
    Washington, D.C. 20549

    STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP

    Filed pursuant to Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
    or Section 30(h) of the Investment Company Act of 1940
    OMB APPROVAL
    OMB Number: 3235-0287
    Expires: December 31, 2014
    Estimated average burden
    hours per response: 0.5

    Check this box if no longer subject to Section 16. Form 4 or Form 5 obligations may continue. See Instruction 1(b).
    1. Name and Address of Reporting Person*
    Kain Gary D
    (Last) (First) (Middle)
    2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER
    14TH FLOOR
    (Street)
    BETHESDA MD 20814
    (City) (State) (Zip)
    2. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol
    American Capital Agency Corp [ AGNC ] 5. Relationship of Reporting Person(s) to Issuer
    (Check all applicable)
    Director 10% Owner
    X Officer (give title below) Other (specify below)
    President and CIO
    3. Date of Earliest Transaction (Month/Day/Year)
    05/13/2013
    4. If Amendment, Date of Original Filed (Month/Day/Year)
    6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line)
    X Form filed by One Reporting Person
    Form filed by More than One Reporting Person
    Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Acquired, Disposed of, or Beneficially Owned
    1. Title of Security (Instr. 3) 2. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year) 2A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year) 3. Transaction Code (Instr. 8) 4. Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed Of (D) (Instr. 3, 4 and 5) 5. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s) (Instr. 3 and 4) 6. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 4) 7. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 4)
    Code V Amount (A) or (D) Price
    Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share 05/13/2013 A 332,794 A (1) 703,472 (2) D
    Table II - Derivative Securities Acquired, Disposed of, or Beneficially Owned
    (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities)
    1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 3) 2. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 3. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year) 3A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year) 4. Transaction Code (Instr. 8) 5. Number of Derivative Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed of (D) (Instr. 3, 4 and 5) 6. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 7. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 3 and 4) 8. Price of Derivative Security (Instr. 5) 9. Number of derivative Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s) (Instr. 4) 10. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 4) 11. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 4)
    Code V (A) (D) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares
    Explanation of Responses:
    1. Date of final allocation of number of shares of AGNC common stock purchased with a cash award made under the American Capital Mortgage Management, LLC Performance Plan - AGNC,
    2. Includes 9,646, 10,765 and 11,403 shares of common stock received pursuant to the reinvestment of cash dividends declared by the Company to holders of record of common stock as of 6/21/12, 9/21/12 and 12/27/12, respectively.
    Remarks:
    Gary Kain 05/14/2013
    ** Signature of Reporting Person Date
    Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly.
    * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 4 (b)(v).
    ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a).
    Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure.
    Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number.
    May 30 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Bay Realty Trust: A Disaster Waiting To Happen [View article]
    It would be a huge error to short SBY in the face of strong buying from multiple insiders.
    May 23 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Facing Attack From Regulators [View article]
    I put it into BRK and IEP, seeking equities without European risk. Got very lucky! Clearly the danger to mREITs did not materialize and I will buy back in to the sector opportunistically.
    May 7 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Facing Attack From Regulators [View article]
    Fair comments, but I do not think that the worst case is temporary management distraction. It is certainly conceivable that limits on leverage are implemented and investors dump shares. Then you could find yourself with big paper losses and dividends that are cut in half.
    Apr 26 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Facing Attack From Regulators [View article]
    Good question, Jerbear! There is a short term element to my trade.

    I like mREITS and have done well with them, enjoying share price appreciation alongside the big dividends. I have noticed that this is an extremely controversial sector, with even supporters saying "only allocate a few percent because it's so risky". It seems that everyone is thinking "I can't resist the 15% dividends, but I know this won't last forever and I'll sprint to the exits when the time comes." Well, that is an impossible strategy.

    There have been a couple of very sharp dips in share prices driven by herd mentality exits, notably one that started in late September, 2012 when the REM index dropped from $15.61 to $13.11 before slowly returning to the highs.

    Given the WSJ articles, there is a high probability that we will see some regulators calling for limits on leverage or other changes that would adversely affect the sector. So I decided to park my cash elsewhere and watch from the sidelines. Hopefully, not for long.
    Apr 26 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Facing Attack From Regulators [View article]
    I think you're too harsh, pompanofrog. The Fed's ZIRP policy was designed to provide liquidity to the economy. As a consumer, small businessman or small investor it was impossible to access money and anything close to .25%. The banks sat on the money and showed record profits and credit card rates stayed stuck at rates near 20%.

    mREITS actually provide important liquidity to housing/mortgages by accessing ZIRP-fueled ultra low rates. It seems that mREITS are doing exactly what the Fed and Congress (through the zero corporate tax rate) hoped for and intended. They serve another purpose: Small investors can earn 12% yields short term, versus near-zero in banks or bonds. That is a real value to knowledgable investors who understand and accept the risks and volatility.

    Contrary to your comment, individual investors cannot buy mortgages and lever them ten to one while paying 1.5% for the funds. At least, I don't think so? Can you really do that?
    Apr 26 12:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs Facing Attack From Regulators [View article]
    This is a pretty good list, jweissman.
    REM ACRE AGNC AI AMTG ANH ARI ARR CLNY CMO CXS CYS DX EFC HTS MFA MITT MTGE NLY NRF NYMT PMT RSO RWT STWD TWO WMC MORL CIM IVR

    There are many subsets, including government backed (agency) versus non-agency mREITS, commercial property versus residential, etc. Companies also differ in their use of leverage (typically 6-10X) which no doubt contributes to concern of the part of some regulators. Likewise, they all use interest rate hedges in different ways. Quality of management is key as this is a complex sector. There are lots of articles on SA that explain the sector in detail.
    Apr 26 12:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 REIT Plays Receiving Plenty Of Investor Attention [View article]
    I agree with your (and Kain's) view that m-reits are useful, benevolent and provide yields well in excess of the risk. Many people reason that if T-bills are are paying less than 2% then m-reits paying 10-15% are simply too good to be true and therefore must be a scam. My own view is that the Fed is handing out free short term credit and the m-reit operators have simply found a way to monetize the spread with no scam involved. Nonetheless, this is a very 'nervous' sector where investors are keeping an eye on the exit door at all times. Note the 'flash crash' in m-reits where the REM index dropped from $14.78 to $13.11 in two weeks, for no obvious reason, before resuming the climb to new highs.
    Apr 23 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 REIT Plays Receiving Plenty Of Investor Attention [View article]
    M-reits have been very good to us but there are growing regulatory risks that may surface as early as this week.

    On Friday April 19th, the Wall Street Journal ran two articles that suggest the m-reit sector is about to face regulatory action. In an article titled "Regulators Worry Mortgage REITs Pose Threat to Financial System", http://tinyurl.com/ccy...,

    Deborah Solomon wrote:
    "A panel of top financial regulators is targeting mortgage real-estate investment trusts as a potential risk to the U.S. financial system, the latest example of Washington's growing concern with market bubbles.
    Next week, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a panel comprising the top U.S. financial regulators, is expected to cite mortgage REITs as a source of market vulnerability in its annual report, according to people familiar with the matter, a distinction that could set the stage for stricter oversight of the industry.
    Eager to avoid the mistakes of the past, regulators are attempting to identify overly frothy activity before it poses problems. Even though the economy continues to recover only slowly, regulators see potential bubbles forming in a range of financial markets, in part because of the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, which have driven interest rates to near-record lows and prompted investors to seek higher returns elsewhere."

    These warnings are repeated and expanded upon in a second WSJ article http://tinyurl.com/bvu..., by Telos Demos, which begins with “Regulators are casting a skeptical eye on a fast-expanding corner of Wall Street amid worries about the risks posed by mortgage real-estate investment trusts.”

    My belief is that m-reits provide useful liquidity to the housing market and do not pose a threat to the financial system as a whole. Nonetheless, regulators and legislators who were burned by the housing crash and subsequent great recession are apparently on a path to increase regulatory requirements on the industry which could derail the m-reit gravy train.
    Apr 23 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CYS Investments: An Undervalued mREIT With A 10.8% Yield [View article]
    What is "DROP income"?
    Apr 18 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Bay Realty Trust - A Business Model Doomed To Fail [View article]
    Some things don't add up...
    From Baron's, March 12, 2013: "So, we started digging, and discovered a cluster buy at residential REIT Silver Bay Realty Trust (SBY), where three directors and the general counsel snapped up about 28,000 shares for roughly $537,300 over March 5-8.

    This comes as a possible optimistic sign, especially after news on March 4 that CEO David Miller bought 10,000 shares for $194,700."

    And then there is the author's point number 3, the fearsome 'end of lockup' on March 13th that the author highlights as a sign of coming doom. Oh, wait -- March 13th was over two weeks ago and the stocks up another buck and a half since then.

    Finally, the author should understand that an increase in float is not equivalent to "a dilution of approximately 64% to the current shareholders."

    Whether through intention or lack of knowledge this is a biased and misleading article.
    Apr 1 09:52 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCharging Tesla [View article]
    Thanks for a provocative and intriguing article. Question: How do you come up with $1,500 and why do you believe it would survive as the market matures?
    Mar 26 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
29 Comments
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