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Kenny Yang

 
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  • Rogers Communications: Overlooked Telecom Because Of Perceived Competitive Risk [View article]
    The % of sales are just a proxy Kevin. I agree there is a lot of changes but Rogers can still do well if it plays its cards right. I respect your opinion if you want to avoid Rogers.
    Aug 11 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rogers Communications: Overlooked Telecom Because Of Perceived Competitive Risk [View article]
    Thanks for reading OntheRock.We'll see what happens next.
    Aug 11 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rogers Communications: Overlooked Telecom Because Of Perceived Competitive Risk [View article]
    I agree with you, it's been very weak lately but it may bounce back better than before since expectation has been lower so much. So as somewhat less than stellar performance could cause the stock to rally because it wasn't as bad as expected.
    Aug 11 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rogers Communications: Overlooked Telecom Because Of Perceived Competitive Risk [View article]
    txcounselor, I'm evaluating the name on a fundamental analysis, not a technical basis. Don't mind for it to fall it since I want to buy it.
    Aug 11 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manulife Financial Is Already Baking In Higher Rates But Could Eventually Have More Upside [View article]
    After reading this piece, I'm really confused about author's investment thesis.

    Lots of facts thrown here and there but missing a lot of key developments (1) The very large 19% dividend hike last week (2) Investment experience has been good with experience gains really solid (>$200M a quarter) (3) Better on regulatory front with limited impact from new capital and accounting rules (4) The cost optimization E&E program that aims to reduce expenses by over $400 million by end of 2016. Overall, they making good progress on their way to make $4 billion in core earnings by end of 2016, which you fail to mention in this article. Given that path, growth is likely to be in 10%+ range.

    Also, predicting EPS for this name is extremely hard. MFC reports under IFRS, not US GAAP, so its results are much more volatile than US lifecos since IFRS is mark-to-market. Its US GAAP equity is almost $13 billion higher than it's current book value.

    For a PRO article, I'm very disappointed at the quality of research.
    Aug 11 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Evaluation After A Messy Quarter [View article]
    Agreed coleman. I listened in to that remark on the CC and was glad more weakness was mostly attributable to temporary factors. I think the company should have a reasonable good Q3 (similar Q3/2013 and Q3/2012).
    Jul 31 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Evaluation After A Messy Quarter [View article]
    Thanks John. Corrected.
    Jul 31 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Evaluation After A Messy Quarter [View article]
    Yup. Guess that's where a portion of the billion saved went. Thanks for reading again.
    Jul 31 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mega Growth Potential In MEG Energy [View article]
    MEG reported Q2/2014 results today. Very good numbers with EPS of $1.11, Operating EPS of $0.49 (up from $0.06) and cash flow of $1.16 (up 70% Y/Y). Production guidance also raised from 60-65K to 65-70K due to strong performance in first half. If I have time, i update with another article if I have time.

    Link to press release http://bit.ly/1lWjGxc
    Jul 30 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap And Profitable Canadian Value Screen With Yield [View article]
    Well since you mention Graham, I thought I'll answer with a Graham quote "..we hope to implement in the reader a tendency to measure or quantify. For 99 issues out of 100 we could say that at some price cheap enough to buy and at some other price they would be so dear that they should be sold. The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment" (pg 8 Intelligent Investor 4th edition revised)

    So the stock at $25 last summer vs near $50 now makes a big difference. I'm not looking at what Mr.Market says but it's book value increased 25% year-over-year (added back dividends) while stock basically increased 100%. The other 75% price appreciation is due to "multiple expansion" (P/B was 1.7 last summer, now 2.8) so it's getting more expensive so I'll be cautious to say Home Capital is a permanent investing regardless the valuation. ROE fell from 25% in Q4/2012 to 23% latest quarter and I'm seeing the efficiency ratio also creep up a bit from 27.3% to 28.7%. Overall, those are not terribly bad signs but nor are they really good signs to say the stock is an absolute bargain at the "current price" of near $50 per share.
    Jul 9 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mega Growth Potential In MEG Energy [View article]
    Sorry the late response mapdoga. The main location is at the Gulf Coast, currently refineries are shipping heavy oil from countries such as Venezuela. The feedstock would be cheaper if shipped from Canada.

    Please see the CAPP market report pg ii (http://bit.ly/1lVpbLE). The gulf have 9.5 million barrels per day capacity (see pg 17 of report) and it's shipping 2.1 million barrels overseas, which is opportunity to replace cheaper feedstock from Canada given in 2013 there was only 100,000 barrels per day shipped due to pipeline constraints. However with more rail and the 400,000 barrels per day Seaway expansion in mid-2014 (pg iii of the report), there will be more shipments reaching the Gulf.

    The other big region is Canadian east coast where total refining capacity is 1.2 million barrels per day but only 1/3 of feedstock is from Western Canada (see pg 12 of report). Big opportunity to lower feedstock cost for refineries if shipped from Canada rather than import overseas.

    Hope this helps!
    Jul 9 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap And Profitable Canadian Value Screen With Yield [View article]
    Glad you caught that krug (correction already sent). I am aware about Home Capital Group's business but at times I incorrectly write mortgage insurance when I intended to say mortgage lender.

    With regards to opinion, I agree completely after the sell-off by Eisman's presentation, that was an opportunity. But with housing prices high and loan growth difficult in Canada, I would be cautious especially the stellar share performance in the last 12 month. Of course, it's up to the reader to decide if they want to invest now or not.
    Jul 9 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mega Growth Potential In MEG Energy [View article]
    Good point hoyt15. I should have explicitly mention it in the article but I did imply that the results were volatile due to the changes in the light/heavy oil spreads. Diluent costs are based on light oil so when the spread is wide (cost based on light oil but realized based on heavy), the cost of diluent has a more negative impact to the cash netback even if price realization is higher. Currently, light/heavy differentital is still relatively wide at 32% with historical averages 10-15% discount to WTI.

    One interesting fact I forgot to mention is that the Q/Q changes in cash netback has a much lower absolute correlation with WTI prices (0.3) than the cost of diluent (0.75). Therefore, the light/heavy oil differential is a key variable rather than absolute level of oil prices. That being said, I mentioned various initiatives taken by management to lower diluent costs or increase realized price, many of which are not fully shown in the latest results because there is a lag effect. The technology initiatives will reduce diluents costs by recycling back diluents but results aren't materially affected until next year as the technology is only tested with a small sample so far; good success so far according to management. Marketing initiatives are beginning to show signs but should be watched closely. There are more rail shipments and pipe that will increase realize price as more gets down the Gulf Coast in second half of 2014. I think management is trying their best to control what is controllable but it's just not immediately showing up in the results.

    In general the light/heavy oil differential should tighten towards the historical average of 10-15% discount to WTI from the current 32% as de-bottlenecking initiatives should alleviate the large discount. Railways like CP and CN are focused on expand their capacity to ship oil as their largest growth opportunity since coal is in structural decline. New pipelines, albeit with delays, are being built to transport oil from Alberta to the east, west, and south. There is demand for heavy oil in the Gulf refineries given the excessive capacity for heavy oil and in Eastern Canada where the feedstock for refineries is extremely high given it's shipped from overseas. A good report on market dynamics I recommend is the annual CAPP report (http://bit.ly/1ohVLdi).

    Hope this helps. Free feel to post more questions or add to the discussion further.
    Jul 4 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mega Growth Potential In MEG Energy [View article]
    RHMASSING, you make a very good point. However I would suggest you to analyze the companies in detail by yourself instead of merely following smart money. TLM is not a company I would touch given their poor operating history and less stellar balance sheet. It's not as easy to turn around TLM as CHK. Now if you saw the potential with CHK, you would have realized the same opportunity existed with ECA (the Canadian competitor of CHK) at the end of last year when they begin a big strategic review and now stock is over 30% higher.

    I would say the hate for Canadian oil and gas stocks is unwarranted and hence why the large mispricing existed last year. This year, Canadian oil sands have done much better than US oil stocks because they were so under-priced. Neglect for Canadian names causes under-pricing. I rather purchase undervalued assets at low prices than fair valued assets at so-so prices.
    Jul 4 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap And Profitable Canadian Value Screen With Yield [View article]
    Growth is not everything. Most important is to increase the per share value of the business. Sub growth may be slow but that doesn't mean there are other ways to increase value for the company on a per share basis...i.e. (1) Shifting the product mix by selling more lucrative data plans (2) Encourage prepaid customers to sign on higher value plans (3) Increase efficiency in by optimizing operations and lowering the cost structure (4) For bigger companies like BCE or Rogers, leveraging their media assets.
    Jul 4 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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