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Kentpaul  

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  • The Case For A U.S. Large Cap Profits Squeeze [View article]
    job losses from increased factor productivity are a completely different dynamic to outsourcing related job losses.
    Sep 21, 2012. 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A U.S. Large Cap Profits Squeeze [View article]
    simply speaking, if companies save say $1 in labour costs for say $0.8 in import bills, ie a 20c gain from outsourcing, but incomes and therefore demand goes down $1 all else equal and companies have fixed costs to cover, margins should fall and its a reinforcing process. at some point in the deflation exports pick up, in theory, all else equal.

    additionally as you move your manufacturing out, you also lose the whole industrial supply chain behind that producing the raw materials and machines.
    Sep 20, 2012. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merkel's Reparations [View article]
    Darryl this from wiki and should suffice in describing how destabilising the war reparations were:

    In January 1921, the total sum due was decided by an Inter-Allied Reparations Commission and was set at 269 billion gold marks (the equivalent of around 100,000 tonnes of pure gold). This 100,000 tonnes of gold is equivalent to more than 50% of all the gold ever mined in history (est. 165000 tonnes) which was clearly not within the means of the Germans to pay. Consequently their only way of paying back the debt was in foreign currency, but attempts to purchase foreign currency with devalued paper Marks led to the hyperinflation.

    http://bit.ly/M2gMpZ

    And the comments on FDR are supported by the Mackinac centre's study on the 1930s.

    http://bit.ly/M2gOhw

    Im not calling for a war in Europe, but the PIIGS and France going to a current account surplus at a time that the US's current account deficit is closing out.... well that could be interesting.
    Jul 16, 2012. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Q4 Flow of Funds Data - Who Is Buying Treasuries? [View article]
    most can only explain the current rates as a function of 'financial repression', ie liability hedgers being forced to buy duration in competition with central banks. so despite the fed running a ridiculous level of deficit it can borrow for almost free.
    Jul 16, 2012. 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cut, Cap and Balance: Best Plan We've Heard So Far But Needs Tweaking [View article]
    won't the tax base also go down?
    Jul 19, 2011. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India's Economy Hits a Very Welcome Soft Patch [View article]
    you dont see inflation as a monetary phenomena then.
    Jun 22, 2011. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter GDP: Time to Panic? [View article]
    All im saying is that those who dont recognise unintended consequences are morons. Second if you think debt holders will ultimately sit by and do nothing that is wrong, and finally low bond yields are signs of deflationary pressure I would argue from an unsutainable debt burded. The Japan experience suggests that in the early stages holding government bonds is better than holding equities.
    May 31, 2011. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter GDP: Time to Panic? [View article]
    you dont think it is evidence that there is an unsustainable debt burden then? moron.
    May 26, 2011. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Non-Predictions 2: Equities [View article]
    so erm does macro man ever get it right?
    Jan 6, 2011. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook a Friend That Investors Need? [View article]
    goldman is going to ipo it and the $500m was the money down to do that. goldman are of couse turning around and are going to sell the $500m investment to clients for a fee and after that will have the ipo deal and a fee from selling the $500m investment to some dumb russian and asian investors who believe they can either flip the ipo or who really are believes in the story. goldman will do the ipo and raise say $5bn at 5% margin, not bad for no money down and a few calls to the biggest putzes on your rolodex.
    Jan 3, 2011. 03:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Jim Chanos Right About China? [View article]
    a lot of the assets are held by the wealthy who dont spend them. the point is that in a stable economy production had to be consumed and the have supplanted consumption with debt finance and a high savings rate.
    Dec 23, 2010. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Jim Chanos Right About China? [View article]
    where do you get that data from?
    Dec 21, 2010. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Faber: U.S. to Outperform Emerging Markets, Deficit to Remain High [View article]
    saying your favourite market is japan is a lonely position. however the smart money is looking very carefully at japan which by en large trades around book value
    Dec 14, 2010. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Jim Chanos Right About China? [View article]
    well the difference is they have a growing economy simply through investment in capital. that pays for a lot of mal investment.
    Dec 13, 2010. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Jim Chanos Right About China? [View article]
    ok following the comments I looked on the Chinese government website as the bloomberg data layout is confusing. Here is their data:

    GDP 2010 about 40Tn
    total debt: 60Tn (150% of gdp)
    household debt: 11Tn (~27% of gdp)
    corp debt: 38Tn (95% of gdp)
    other debt includes portfolio debt which I guess means the stock market and various other categories.

    eitherway new loans this year are CNY7.5Tn on a CNY40Tn economy and investment to GDP is about 70% which is enormous. for the time being though its clearly onwards and upwards and you can get 2.5% on your deposit account in an 18% nominal growth economy that supposedly has about 2% core inflation.
    Dec 13, 2010. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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