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Kevin Allman

 
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  • BlackBerry Is Not An Investment; It's A Gamble [View article]
    I don't see this article as Blackberry bashing; it gives a sobering outlook on Blackberry. Of course if any of Blackberry's technologies takes off, then revenues can increase sharply and throw the model's estimates in a tailspin.

    The only thing I really have an issue with is the assumption of free cash flow growing at an annual rate of -0.9% for 15 years. This is a huge assumption given that Chen has a goal of becoming cash flow neutral as early as next year.
    May 28 06:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You On Demand Is Likely A Zero [View article]
    Not sure i understand your point about the Warner Brothers term being up with your quote? You quoted from July 2011 for 54 months...that sounds like 4.5 yrs to me from July 2011...

    With regards to the amount being spent on content; we're going into the realm of pure speculation when we talk about the Disney deal. Do we know all of the terms of the Disney deal, how many movies are being licensed, how m‎uch is the exclusive section of the deal worth, which countries does the deal cover? You on demand doesn't need the entire Disney catalog. Netflix has several tens of thousands of movies..You on Demand has a small fraction of that; does You on Demand need many more movies than that to function? Good question. What sells on the streets of China? Old movies from several years ago? Or the blockbusters?

    As for Hit entertainment not advertising the deal..‎there are several ways to look at this. You are right that the deal with Hit entertainment may not be that big for Hit entertainment money wise..but if that's so, and You on Demand did indeed get a deal; that could suggest that You on Demand didnt have to spend that much to get the movies...which is a good thing for them costs wise..

    With that said; much of the analysis being done for this company is based on speculation..we will know how the strategy is coming along in the coming months. I won't say yay or nay for the company; but I think driving the nails in the coffin at this stage may be a little premature. The facts are that the last few quarters showed a pretty good growth in revenues and the next ER should give more confirmation as to if they are really indeed on a growth track.
    Apr 21 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You On Demand Is Likely A Zero [View article]
    Interesting take on YOD. Some good points but it has painted a picture that makes it seem as though YOD is on the brink of bankruptcy and that all hope is lost.

    Let's take another spin on this; the company grew revenue from $5K in 2012 (lets assume an average of 10.5 million viewers across the year if it started the year at 3 million viewers and ended the year at 18 million) to $300K revenue in 2013 (from an average of 19 million users in 2013; using the same logic)

    with the above, with some extrapolation to make the comparison like for like each year, the company still grew their revenues over 25 times (i.e $10k from >20 million if you extrapolate in 2012).

    Revenue for 2013 does not include any revenue from mobile phones; we still don't know how that will perform but feedback from huawei is supposedly very positive and the company is looking at other mobile phone providers. In addition, the company is talking to other manufacturers (e.g smart tv) to get an app on the hardware.

    I think its a bit early to say that YOD is dead given that:

    1. It has made good progress on revenue growth in 2013 (over 25 times revenue growth)
    2. C-Media put in a fresh round of financing into the company that has extended it's ability to run and continue to build on it's momentum. As you say, they can get a nice return on their investment right now by exercising their shares but doesn't really matter to the financials of the company if they do as the company already got the financing.
    3. The impact of the mobile phone strategy has not been seen as yet
    4. US hollywood companies are continuing to sign up new content on the platform. In the VOD world; the one with the most content usually wins
    5. The company continues to work on getting apps on more mobile providers and hardware platforms in China
    Apr 17 09:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two: This Videogame Company Looks Cheap [View article]
    Thanks eclipes for this; I've removed the misleading bits in the paragraph.
    Jan 17 03:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two: This Videogame Company Looks Cheap [View article]
    Thanks SnapperL for your feedback!
    Jan 16 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two: This Videogame Company Looks Cheap [View article]
    Thanks Mark! I listen in on Ubisoft's conference calls and there was a discussion on the Oct 15th conference call where an analyst questioned the CFO around some numbers around revenue.
    The reply from the CFO when calculating revenue on the fly was 33-34 euros (roughly USD $45) revenue per title. We must remember that even though the game retails for $59.99 in the US, a new GTA game would have retailed for around £49.99 ($81) in the UK and 49.99 euros ($68) in Europe; For my estimate, I decided to knock 10% off the $45 to arrive at roughly $40 average revenue per game (to be on the safe side as GTA was released in Sep).
    Jan 16 05:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two: This Videogame Company Looks Cheap [View article]
    Thanks for your comment derf! I agree that the 29 million quoted by management is the sell in number. You are right that the big question is what is next for Take Two. Depending on what happens next Take Two's share price can either lift off or revert to levels before the GTA V run-up.
    Jan 16 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubisoft Is The Video Game Company To Watch In 2014 [View article]
    No problem Genesis; I appreciate that it could be a bit of trouble putting together those numbers on the website without a subscription as the numbers are updated weekly:

    In this case I took a look at the yearly totals for 2013 for each title launched in the last quarter; so for Just Dance 2014:
    Wii (2.7 mn) - http://bit.ly/1eQI4xx
    Xbox 360 (0.68 mn) - http://bit.ly/1eQI4xz
    Wii U (0.22 mn) - http://bit.ly/1eQI4xD
    Playstation 3 (0.17) - http://bit.ly/1eQI68E
    Xbox One (0.14) - http://bit.ly/1eQI4xJ
    Playstation 4 (0.12) - http://bit.ly/1eQI68G
    Jan 14 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic buyers express interest in BlackBerry - Reuters [View news story]
    Blackberry has a market cap right now of $3.96 Billion and they have $2.6 billion is cash; 3.96-2.6 is what the company minus cash is worth in the market right now i.e $1.36 billion..so BBs patents + BBM + Service revenues + QNX + everything else is only worth $1.36 billion right now......

    lol.....yeh right.
    Oct 6 03:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why No One Is Going To Top The Fairfax Bid [View article]
    Author, your logic of finding a partner would make sense; IF Prem Watsa was trying to finance the loan with mostly equity...but if you go by the Globe report he doesn't seem to be doing that ..he's looking for $1 billion in equity and the remainder of the acquiring price in bank loans..

    blackberry right now is all very speculative; it really isn't farfetched even now for a company like lenovo (or another tech company) to try and make a bid and see where it leads..if they do, the share price could definately go north of $9
    Sep 29 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Bulls, Just Stop [View article]
    after reading your first point i wrote off your article...you are touting that revenue was almost 50 percent lower because what was reported was 1.6 bln...are you serious?? There was a change in the method of revenue reporting that meant that phones that were shipped in the previous quarter couldn't be accounted in this one because they were already accounted for..
    similarly some phones that were shipped in this quarter couldnt be accounted for in the revenue as they didn't sell through as yet..5.9 mln phones sold through in the quarter..but only 3.7 could have been recognized because of the reasons above..

    so the 1.6 bln isnt really the true revenue..its actually a good set more than that *sigh
    Sep 24 08:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Sales Are Sliding, But Are Still Higher Than Street Expectations [View article]
    I question your Indonesia numbers
    The article you referenced indicated that smartphones rose 29% from the previous quarter..to 12.7...this is
    2 quarters later we're talking about...i.e the current quarter could be 12.7 (1.26) (1.26)= possibly 20% of sales....

    at 5 million phones per month..that's 1 million in smartphone sales a month
    If BB gets 30% of that..thats roughly 1 million sales for Indonesia
    Jun 18 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Sales Are Sliding, But Are Still Higher Than Street Expectations [View article]
    I still question your Indonesian numbers...

    The article you referenced indicated that smartphones rose 29% from the previous quarter...NOT 29% year on year.....to 12.7% of sales...this is 2 quarters later we're talking about...12.7 (1.26) (1.26)= possibly 20% of sales....

    at 5 million a month we're talking about roughly 1 million in smartphone sales a month in indonesia..if BB gets 30% of that..thats roughly 1 million sales for Indonesia
    Jun 18 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Gaining Share In Key Markets As Market Awaits Q1 Results [View article]
    I'm not very confident about those OS numbers for Canada at all; there was as large spike over the last few days only; I suspect that this will revert to the norm in a few days time; I've seen such a spike before with statcounter
    Jun 17 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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