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Kevin Babb  

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  • The Prisoner's Dilemma Demands Selling Twitter [View article]
    The prisoners dilemma refers to a concept in game theory in which one player has a dominant option which is better no matter what the other player does. In the classic prisoner example, prisoner A is best off ratting out prisoner B, no matter what prisoner B does.

    So how the hell does this apply to financial markets? Twitter shareholders don't have a dominant option. They are better off holding if others are buying, and better selling if others sell.

    I think the author is either woefully unaware of what the "prisoner's dilemma" really is, or else he is just using it as a buzz-phrase to get clicks.
    Jan 10, 2014. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kulicke And Soffa, A Great Asymmetric Opportunity [View article]
    In my opinion, for tech companies like this, a better understanding of the technology and industry direction is necessary. To my understanding, wire bonding is not the way of the future -- other advanced packaging techniques are where the industry is heading. Discounted cash flow analysis is not so meaningful if investors don't have a sound understanding of the future of the technology.
    Dec 19, 2013. 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Air Lease Trading At 10X Earnings, 1X Book, Growing EPS 30% With Superstar Management And ~110%+ Upside [View article]
    Good article, very informative. What do you think about AirCastle (AYR)? Lower P/B, lower P/C, and a 3.7% dividend.
    Aug 4, 2013. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Now The Dust Is Settling, Time To Load Up On Shares [View article]
    This seems to me like a very good example of what is called a "value trap".
    Aug 3, 2013. 02:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Objective Look At The Performance Of Seeking Alpha's Alpha-Rich Articles [View article]
    Thanks. As many have pointed out, I'm aware of the inherent difficulties in back-testing like this. Hence I didn't claim that Alpha-Rich articles are a complete waste. My point is mostly that the returns are not spectacular, and many ideas end up failing.
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Objective Look At The Performance Of Seeking Alpha's Alpha-Rich Articles [View article]
    Interesting, good point. Although I might add that the SPY return is surely with far less volatility than following alpha-rich ideas, which is probably not insignificant for many investors
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kulicke And Soffa - The Little Semiconductor Engine That Could [View article]
    I've been lock KLIC for a while, even wrote a small-cap insight article about them a while back: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Unfortunately the stock has trickled downward since then. I think KLIC is good in the long run, but in the short run, I don't know if earnings will be a big enough catalyst to make KLIC pay off this year. Like you said, revenue is expected to pick up moreso next year than this year
    Jul 28, 2013. 10:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Objective Look At The Performance Of Seeking Alpha's Alpha-Rich Articles [View article]
    Agreed. Will be interesting to update later. But as many of these picks were recommended based on short term events, a very long time frame also adds its own problems.
    Jul 28, 2013. 10:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Objective Look At The Performance Of Seeking Alpha's Alpha-Rich Articles [View article]
    Thanks. Yes it's something I've wondered about for a while. I think it would be especially interesting if we saw a broad decline in the market over the next six months. In that environment, I could see Alpha-Rich picks being highly disconnected from a broad market decline and hence outperform.
    With the rate that Alpha-Rich articles are currently coming out, it will be hard to keep up on new ones. But I plan on coming up with an update at some point later this year.
    Jul 28, 2013. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Q2 Preview: Huge Upside Potential For Results And Guidance [View article]
    You neglected to include declining ZEV credits in your analysis of the average sale price. Tesla had, if I remember, $62 million in ZEV credit sales in Q1, and is expecting ZERO in Q4, so we can assume that ZEV credit revenue will be down in Q2 as well.
    I think Tesla is a good company but I think you are overlooking this aspect of the sale price. Seems like you included the ZEV credit revenue in your calculation of Q1 vehicle sale price, which seems inaccurate.
    Jun 6, 2013. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Tesla Go Higher? [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback! I actually have been long with call options a good part of the time (like right before earnings). Lately I have pared down a bit, but if things look good I expect to ramp up again before Q2 earnings.
    May 31, 2013. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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