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Kevin Chapman  

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  • North Dakota crude output falls from record highs [View news story]
    Depending on who you ask it might change, but you can bet on 70% in year 1,40% in year 2, 25% in year 3.

    New drills may still be profitable at $50 oil if (a) they are drilled on HBP acreage, (b) service costs come down 30% (c) the company has decent hedges/liquidity/large portion of debt maturing in 2017+ and (d) the acreage is in the heart of the shale play. That being said, you can only name a handful of public companies who meet those criteria in the US, and those should be the ones you invest in if you want to be in the space.

    Exhibit A: EOG
    Mar 12, 2015. 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LyondellBasell's Dividend Is A Head-Turner [View article]
    Love the stock and divy coverage, sold it on the pop today from a buy at $79.xx. Definitely looking to get in on the next dip.
    Feb 3, 2015. 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resource Capital: 2015 Guidance Confirms A Lower Dividend [View article]
    Albert do you think this thing is pricing in a divy cut at 4.67? Wondering if buy backs would kick in at the mid to low $4.xx level myself...
    Jan 22, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts - Stock For Sale, Take The Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the write up. This stock pops up on my screener a lot because of rev and eps growth but I always came to the same conclusion you did... A little to pricey. Looks like I'll be a buyer Tuesday.
    Jan 19, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Oil [View instapost]
    Thanks for the insight. Dont comment much on your stocktalks/articles/blogs but I do enjoy your POV and take in your stocktalks on a regular basis.

    Personally I think people are underestimating the swiftness at which the North American E&P co can efficiently allocate capital and also force service providers to lower costs.

    You are seeing costs moving down and it happen daily as E&P's are asking
    (a) land service companies to cut staff
    (b) rig suppliers to adjust/cancel contracts
    (c) D&C service providers to lower costs by 15-20%
    (d) cost/rod of gathering line construction moving lower

    The cuts on costs has quickened over the past few weeks on the land services side as major projects with lead times longer than 3+ months are being cut (i.e. ALLnew prospects/ventures). You will see the field service cos (think HAL/SLB) see price cut requests by February at the latest.

    At the end of the day, I think the IRR curve many contributors on SA are leaning on to say plays are uneconomic will be revised to match lower total well cost. Doesnt make a play any more economic, but definitely lowers the bar.

    I also think you see the mid-cap North American E&P focus on the core of the core acreage. This acreage already has sunk cost in terms of land services, gathering lines, and any surface facilities (compressors, tank batteries, heater treaters, etc). Because of this I see production staying flat through most of 2015 while costs come down for the avg E&P co.

    You saw it in the Sanchez press release the other day... they are expecting cost/well to come down substantially as they ask service providers to adjust. They still expect to meet their production goals for 2015.

    I think you will see the North American E&P benefit from the downturn as they are price setters on the service-side in this environment, especially if you have a rubber-band like bounce in crude between now and September.

    Would enjoy your thoughts on the above.

    Also saw a nugget today for a Jan 07 price bulletin from a private independent refiner with the following prices for 1 delivered barrel of crude:

    Colorado DJ Basin: $44.25

    North Dakota Southern (i.e. best of the Bakken API): $40.50
    - Dont know about the above... the differential would make this lower

    Texas EF Giddings Sweet (i.e. Gonzales/DeWitt Co): $43.25

    EF West (i.e. Webb/LaSalle): $39
    Jan 9, 2015. 12:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Jury's Anti-Fracking Verdict Could Create Problems For Oil And Gas Producers [View article]
    Nice over-the-top article title (reads like a news story for the ill-informed)...

    That being said, I think this goes beyond fracking (as Halliburton won a summary judgment prior to the Aruba verdict) and addresses how urban drilling is affecting (creating a nuisance) to adjacent land-owners. You wont see a suit like this in North Dakota.

    I think the interesting part of this verdict is that it includes $250,000 for loss of property value (even though market/appraised value of their land has stayed relatively constant over the last 5 years).
    Another case in Tarrant Co may have more of an impact than the Parr case: http://bit.ly/1iWnmgR

    That being said, litigation is nothing new in the oil patch. The sky is not falling.
    Jun 4, 2014. 12:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Buffett Gone Mad? Berkshire Hathaway Founder Steps Up A $1B For College Basketball [View article]
    So your sayin theres a chance....
    Jan 24, 2014. 03:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AmTrust Controversy In A Nutshell [View article]
    So regardless of who is "right" or "wrong"... why not use a straddle to take advantage of the volatility? I don't want to go long the underlying but I also don't want to miss a move to the upside... thoughts? Ideas?

    DISCLAIMER: I am a novice at options strategy.
    Dec 18, 2013. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Ford Shale: New Record Set For Price Per Acre [View article]
    While it seems shady I don't think it will have a material impact on the stock. The same thing happens more than you would expect (see SD and CHK). However SN is overweight the best play in the country with none of the issues the two I mentioned have.
    Nov 20, 2013. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Ford Shale: New Record Set For Price Per Acre [View article]
    Color me VERY underwhelmed if I am a Devon shareholder. I just shake my head at the premium paid for non-operated assets knowing, like you said, that organic value creation may exist elsewhere. PS back up the truck to PVA...

    Hell of a presentation by PVA as well: http://bit.ly/1fWmjhc
    Nov 20, 2013. 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Words Of Joseph Granville, 'Sell All Stocks.' Well, Almost All [View article]
    I understand the argument but have trouble with the conclusion. My biggest issue with these ideas is timing... You could very well be right on the outcome, like buyandhold2012 18 months ago, and still lose out on rising stock prices of profitable and growing companies because you didn't buy at sound valuations.

    Thanks for the article and the reminder of the end game.
    Nov 16, 2013. 06:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $55 Million Company Worth $0: Bison Petroleum [View article]
    haha thats hilarious
    Nov 12, 2013. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    I looked at MIG too as well as EZCH, REGI and MYGN. All seemed to be up in the pre market and having no experience trading in the pre I decided not to play.

    That EPR seems to have worked to perfection so far...
    Nov 6, 2013. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    out of FOR at $22.19.
    Nov 6, 2013. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcón Resources: Why Is The Stock Down Again? [View article]
    Just another reason investing is about fundamentals first, management second (as far as I am concerned).
    Nov 6, 2013. 10:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
50 Comments
95 Likes