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Kevin Chapman  

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  • EPR properties beats, boosts, introduces 2016 guidance [View news story]
    Helluva report.
    Oct 28, 2015. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan weighing on entire MLP sector [View news story]
    Dr Bubs,

    You sound like you want a lottery ticket. In that case, go play the lottery.

    This is the stock market, where you have the chance to buy shares in companies that actually make money (if you choose correctly). I would encourage you to care less about "high yield security" and more about "predictable earnings security" instead. Concern yourself with the latter, and "yield security" will follow.

    You need to come to grips with the fact that you will be poor next year, and every year thereafter until SS gets fixed.

    "high yield security" souds a whole lot like reaching for yield, which is the same thing as digging a hole while standing in it. Let me know how that goes.

    Price follows earnings - Chuck Carnevale (
    Oct 22, 2015. 11:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Cuts Dividend And Staff, What Happens Next? [View article]
    CHK is frustrating (I am a current underwater shareholder and former contractor)... ask any shareholder OR employee. I can tell you from experience that they have a great land staff, which unfortunately goes to work trying to make a mountain out of a molehill in this environment.
    Sep 30, 2015. 11:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI EPS of -$17.92 [View news story]
    Impressive. I for one belive(d) in the assets, but the execution has been a dumpster fire.
    Sep 29, 2015. 06:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart In The Bargain Bin [View article]
    I get the comparison to TGT, but I still think the budget conscious shopper is going to Walmart if given the choice.

    For most of the American population, low prices mean everything, and for many trump any kind of "experience" one might get from the stores boolanger mentioned. Even while Sams and Costco might have lower per unit prices, I still have to go to Walmart/Target/Albertsons to get things Costco/Sams do not have (or that they do have but that I dont need 1,000 of).

    To me Walmart has 4 things that make it a stalwart: Low prices (or the perception of), variety across the consumer spectrum, usually open 24 hours, and is close (I live in DFW). You can't say those 4 things about anyone else on boolanger's list, and that's why Walmart isnt going anywhere.
    Sep 19, 2015. 12:36 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This PIMCO CEF Has A 12.2% Distribution And A -9% Discount [View article]
    LB/All - I received as a gift about $8,000 worth of PIMCO CEFs ~ 4 weeks ago from a grandmother. These are not my forte, so was wondering if you could share some of your knowledge on these funds and CEFs in general. This gift represents about 5% of my portfolio. Gift is approx 1/5 PDI, 1/4 PCI, 1/4 PCN, 1/3 PTY.

    How do I value these things? I get looking at the holdings of the underlying, and understand generally about leverage some funds use. That being said, is there some sort of loose criteria you use when screening funds? Is it past performance? distribution coverage? discount to NAV? all?

    Just looking for a starting point, so thought I would ask. Dont want to dump these but I am not in a habit of owning something whose value proposition (or staying power) cannot be explained in one breath. Thanks in advance.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire returns to energy sector with $4.5B stake in Phillips 66 [View news story]
    The oracle with the Kansas City (omaha) shuffle?
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inexpensive Income Investment: Eaton [View article] Look at Part II Item 15 to see how Eaton is treating the "dividend".
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Permian Basin Stock Valuation Part 1: Parsley Energy [View article]
    What do you think about the potential sale of their acreage in andrews/gaines?
    Jun 24, 2015. 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota crude output falls from record highs [View news story]
    Depending on who you ask it might change, but you can bet on 70% in year 1,40% in year 2, 25% in year 3.

    New drills may still be profitable at $50 oil if (a) they are drilled on HBP acreage, (b) service costs come down 30% (c) the company has decent hedges/liquidity/large portion of debt maturing in 2017+ and (d) the acreage is in the heart of the shale play. That being said, you can only name a handful of public companies who meet those criteria in the US, and those should be the ones you invest in if you want to be in the space.

    Exhibit A: EOG
    Mar 12, 2015. 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LyondellBasell's Dividend Is A Head-Turner [View article]
    Love the stock and divy coverage, sold it on the pop today from a buy at $79.xx. Definitely looking to get in on the next dip.
    Feb 3, 2015. 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resource Capital: 2015 Guidance Confirms A Lower Dividend [View article]
    Albert do you think this thing is pricing in a divy cut at 4.67? Wondering if buy backs would kick in at the mid to low $4.xx level myself...
    Jan 22, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts - Stock For Sale, Take The Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the write up. This stock pops up on my screener a lot because of rev and eps growth but I always came to the same conclusion you did... A little to pricey. Looks like I'll be a buyer Tuesday.
    Jan 19, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Oil [View instapost]
    Thanks for the insight. Dont comment much on your stocktalks/articles/blogs but I do enjoy your POV and take in your stocktalks on a regular basis.

    Personally I think people are underestimating the swiftness at which the North American E&P co can efficiently allocate capital and also force service providers to lower costs.

    You are seeing costs moving down and it happen daily as E&P's are asking
    (a) land service companies to cut staff
    (b) rig suppliers to adjust/cancel contracts
    (c) D&C service providers to lower costs by 15-20%
    (d) cost/rod of gathering line construction moving lower

    The cuts on costs has quickened over the past few weeks on the land services side as major projects with lead times longer than 3+ months are being cut (i.e. ALLnew prospects/ventures). You will see the field service cos (think HAL/SLB) see price cut requests by February at the latest.

    At the end of the day, I think the IRR curve many contributors on SA are leaning on to say plays are uneconomic will be revised to match lower total well cost. Doesnt make a play any more economic, but definitely lowers the bar.

    I also think you see the mid-cap North American E&P focus on the core of the core acreage. This acreage already has sunk cost in terms of land services, gathering lines, and any surface facilities (compressors, tank batteries, heater treaters, etc). Because of this I see production staying flat through most of 2015 while costs come down for the avg E&P co.

    You saw it in the Sanchez press release the other day... they are expecting cost/well to come down substantially as they ask service providers to adjust. They still expect to meet their production goals for 2015.

    I think you will see the North American E&P benefit from the downturn as they are price setters on the service-side in this environment, especially if you have a rubber-band like bounce in crude between now and September.

    Would enjoy your thoughts on the above.

    Also saw a nugget today for a Jan 07 price bulletin from a private independent refiner with the following prices for 1 delivered barrel of crude:

    Colorado DJ Basin: $44.25

    North Dakota Southern (i.e. best of the Bakken API): $40.50
    - Dont know about the above... the differential would make this lower

    Texas EF Giddings Sweet (i.e. Gonzales/DeWitt Co): $43.25

    EF West (i.e. Webb/LaSalle): $39
    Jan 9, 2015. 12:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Jury's Anti-Fracking Verdict Could Create Problems For Oil And Gas Producers [View article]
    Nice over-the-top article title (reads like a news story for the ill-informed)...

    That being said, I think this goes beyond fracking (as Halliburton won a summary judgment prior to the Aruba verdict) and addresses how urban drilling is affecting (creating a nuisance) to adjacent land-owners. You wont see a suit like this in North Dakota.

    I think the interesting part of this verdict is that it includes $250,000 for loss of property value (even though market/appraised value of their land has stayed relatively constant over the last 5 years).
    Another case in Tarrant Co may have more of an impact than the Parr case:

    That being said, litigation is nothing new in the oil patch. The sky is not falling.
    Jun 4, 2014. 12:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment