Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Kevin Feeney  

View Kevin Feeney's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Cosi: The Turnaround That's Too Late [View article]
    Hello Ms. Suarez,

    Thank you for taking the time to respond and for providing your insight on COSI Costa Rica. I do agree with you that Costa Rica and other Central American counties are a great place for COSI's expansion but the Company's success in Costa Rica is not very indicative of how the brand is faring in the United States or as a whole. COSI lost over $15 million last year off of $77 million in revenue and if something doesn't change in the US, the Company will continue to lose money for investors. It would take much longer than 5 years for Company growth in international markets to make up for this lack of profitability especially if the new stores are franchise locations. In the first quarter of 2015, franchise fees only rose $54,000 year over year to $701,000. Although this represents decent 8% growth, it clearly isn't contributing enough to the top or bottom line for COSI as a whole. The Company's lack of success and stale brand in the United States is only a part of the reason why the Company is hurting financially and I don't believe international franchise expansion will help this as shown above. Mr. Dourney has done a pretty good job so far of making advancements in revamping stores and bringing some customers back, but he has failed to make any headway on the worst issue the Company has faced: its high costs. The main reason the Company hasn't been a investment success is that no CEO has been able to find a way to bring the Company's costs down to a level where the Company could make a profit. In Mr. Dourney's first year, there wasn't any improvement in the EBITDA margin (it actually got worse) which is crucial to the Company's success. I also wouldn't say the food is exceptional; personally I think a couple of the sandwiches are good but I wouldn't buy the salads or pizza due to competitors who make a better product at the same price. In the US, competition is fierce for companies such as this and COSI is trying to have the best sandwich, salad, and pizza. However, many companies focus on just one and do it very well. Unless I see the overall Company show that it has the ability to increase its profitability (not just revenue or food taste), I don't think the Company has a very bright future even if it sees continued international success. Mr. Dourney still has time to save the brand by reducing the costs in the United States but I'm not sure this is going to be possible without damaging food quality/taste/etc. I'll keep following COSI to look for margin improvements but I'm not sure it's going to be as easy as Mr. Dourney tries to make it out to be. I wish you and your family continued success with your franchise locations in Costa Rica. I'll also send you an email in case you have any questions about the comment or article. Again, thank you for taking the time to reach out.

    Regards,
    Kevin
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Your Uranium Trades For Profit In An Ambiguous Environment [View article]
    Hi Nazarbaz,

    Due to new reactors coming online and older ones being restarted, demand will grow at a faster rate than supply (helped in part by declining secondary supplies) which should result in at least some upwards pressure in uranium prices. If we were to reach that deficit, then uranium prices would skyrocket because reactors absolutely need it to operate. A lot of people think a large uranium price increase is going to occur shortly because that deficit is only a few years away, but I think the carryover from uranium oversupply, currently non-operating uranium producers, and new mine projects will keep pushing it back.
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Your Uranium Trades For Profit In An Ambiguous Environment [View article]
    No problem - thanks for reading
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp. Drilling Into Rapid Growth For A Potential 55% Return [View article]
    Thanks! I see SDRL as a very good and stable long term player in the industry. It's hard to beat that steadily increasing 8% yield.
    Aug 23, 2013. 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp. Drilling Into Rapid Growth For A Potential 55% Return [View article]
    I see where you're coming from with the lower highs (valid for the past couple of months) but I think the longer term trend here still signifies accumulation. Thanks for the feedback!
    Aug 23, 2013. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp. Drilling Into Rapid Growth For A Potential 55% Return [View article]
    I don't believe 55% is too optimistic of a goal for 2015 with all of the growth factors associated with Noble. My talk of a a stop loss in the $36 range stems from the fact that this would mean a break in the current trend of accumulation, meaning it would be wise to re-assess the short term direction of the stock at this point. The stock should continue to reach higher lows every time it falls. But please make sure to do your own DD and choose a stop loss that fits you personally if you intend to invest in Noble.
    Aug 23, 2013. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp. Drilling Into Rapid Growth For A Potential 55% Return [View article]
    I generally do not take up positions in stocks I write about because this usually leads to bias. If I do not have any money in the stock around the time of the publication, I am more inclined to give a fair assessment as I have no emotional connection to the stock. Also, I am planning to add cash to my brokerage account in the next couple of months - it's possible that I could initiate a long position in Noble Corp after this. 
    Aug 23, 2013. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp. Drilling Into Rapid Growth For A Potential 55% Return [View article]
    Hello,
    I'm not too informed of the business dealings of Noble Energy (NBL), as this article was written about Noble Corp (http://bit.ly/N0itJu). However, I did find this press release which might give you a little more insight on Noble Energy's rights in the Falklands: http://bit.ly/19Cy0qj
    Aug 23, 2013. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: A Look At Both Sides Of The Battle [View article]
    By boosting vehicle production from 2750 to 4900 , Tesla reduced its average COGS on each unit from $103,000 to $95,000. If production has continued to increase and become more efficient then I don't see any reason why the average COGs would not decrease to a range which would produce reasonable margins for the company. Yes I was aware that this money was lent from Goldman and it was a part of the plan to pay off the DoE loan early. However, I don't see why it would matter whether or not the money was his or if it was loaned. He is still placing a large bet on the future of the company and he will need to make that money back in order to repay the loan. As for the insider selling, it isn't unusual for insiders to want some pocket change after major share appreciation. They understand that the share price will probably be rather volatile in the short term so they decided to lock in some gains. They receive compensation in the form of stock and options, so why not put some of them to use? The insiders have plenty more left to sell in the future.
    Jul 18, 2013. 09:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: A Look At Both Sides Of The Battle [View article]
    That is my assumed average per week production for the whole quarter. Recent production is probably closer to 500/week although it probably started slightly under 400 at the beginning of the quarter.
    Jul 18, 2013. 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display Corporation Lighting Up The Visual Revolution [View article]
    UDC will have higher earnings in the second and fourth quarters of this year due to the semi-annual Samsung payment. Analysts estimate EPS of ~ .27 for the next quarter (Q2). FY 2013 estimates are ~ .50 so 28.52 / .50 = P/E of 57 and FY 2014 estimates are ~ $1.22 so 28.52 / 1.22 = P/E of 23.
    Jul 16, 2013. 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display Corporation Lighting Up The Visual Revolution [View article]
    Hello sidney,

    I did mention that the reason for the fluctuation in earnings was due to the semi-annual royalty payments from Samsung, and I do agree that the swings could be considered a "feature" because they occasionally lower the stock price to allow for additional buying opportunities. However, my main problem was not just that the stock fluctuates, but that the fluctuation is between a profit and a loss. I would like to see UDC fill in the quarterly gaps/losses between the Samsung payments so that they have consistent quarterly profits, even if the Samsung payments still provide higher profits in two quarters. I do believe that they will be able to do this and achieve four quarter profitability within the next year as the OLED market grows. As for the sentence mentioning "accurately," I most likely could have used the word "optimally" to best describe my opinion. I think that UDC should work to find the optimal price for licensing/royalties that will allow them to grow with the market. If the market grows 400% in the next few years, then I would like UDC's pricing to allow itself to grow at a similarly high rate. I hope this clears up a few things and thank you for the feedback!
    Jul 15, 2013. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brigham Exploration Company's Bright Future [View article]
    Oil was always over $75-80 during their consistent earnings streak. I think the concern here is that oil dips below $75, 70, 60, (etc.) and what the effect on the stock price would be. When oil collapsed from almost $150 to $60 in 2008, Brigham's EPS suffered. And although the price was battered down for a while, it quickly recovered. The possibility of this happening again is pretty low considering many of BEXP's wells are now de-risked, but if oil did dip low enough, the stock price may still be affected.
    Sep 30, 2011. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brigham Exploration Company's Bright Future [View article]
    As Jeep said below, the main reason the EPS has been revised is because of oil prices. When the only thing you sell is oil (and/or natural gas), then the EPS estimates will be pretty fluid. And considering we've been had a pretty large range of prices over the last year, from $80 to $120, and other unpredictable events have occurred, analyst estimates were probably off on future oil prices. Management may not be buying in now due to the lowering oil prices and the likely effect it will have on the stock. The P/E is a little high (but reasonably priced for future valuation) at 35, and oil prices are plummeting (10% over the last week), which means that this probably isn't your best short-term play, and you might have a chance to buy some lower. But as soon as oil prices turn around, this could be a fast mover to the upside. Not exactly sure what you mean by "talk to" but Bud did state the other day that he believed Q3 production levels could possibly be in the high range of analyst estimates. Hope this helps.
    Sep 30, 2011. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whether Tesla Motors Can Sell [View article]
    1) The battery swap would be done at some type of service center and would most likely be automated and done fully by machine. You wouldn't be exchanging the battery for an "old and decrepit" battery, unless you already have an old and decrepit battery in your car. Also, the battery wouldn't get you just an extra 10 miles. If you have a 300 mile battery in your car, then it would be swapped for a fully charged 300 mile battery. If you'd like to see an example of how fast a battery can be changed then watch this video: www.youtube.com/watch?...

    2) Actually, the Tesla Roadster can go a lot further than 250 miles if you drive at 25mph. When driving at only 25mph (with two passengers), the Roadster holds the record for longest distance driven on a single charge at 347.2 miles.

    Also if you're looking a car strictly for speed performance, then why would you ever be dealing with an electric car? They still have a way to go before they can compete with the speeds of cars that use gas. What is most important now is to extend range and charging times, in which Tesla has been doing an excellent job. Also, comparing the White Zombie to the Tesla Roadster just doesn't work. Try comparing a Factory Five GTM (around $60,000) to any type of Ferrari. The GTM wins for price and performance, but is Ferrari bankrupt or out of business? No, they're bringing in a large profit. With any other electric vehicle it would be almost impossible to drive from Philadelphia to New York, but with Tesla it isn't. Most electric vehicles could fit the bill as being daily drivers, but only Tesla can give people security in knowing that if they ever have to go city to city, they won't need another car. And I have seen Elon Musk say little to nothing that would make him an egotist. He does have a very futuristic mindset, but that has no relation to being an egotist. But truthfully, we're not really going to be able to tell if Tesla will be a success until the Model S is released. We have nothing to compare this release to.
    Sep 2, 2011. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
29 Comments
20 Likes