Seeking Alpha

Kevin Flynn, CFA

 
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  • Down But Not Out
    Thu, Oct. 16 SPY, DIA, QQQ 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Wednesday's economic data had terrible timing, but not terrible underpinnings.
    • The overall economic trend of 2014 has not changed.
    • Selling may still have some legs, but the exhaustion stage has started.
  • The Fed's Employment Dilemma
    Fri, Oct. 10 DIA, SPY, QQQ 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The FOMC employment objectives and projections.
    • Historical employment experience, the business cycle and the insured unemployment rate.
    • The practicality of policy vs. the business cycle.
  • Correction Maybe, Bear Market No
    Thu, Oct. 9 SPY, DIA, QQQ 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent volatility can beguile you.
    • The many hazards to navigate in the coming weeks could further challenge prices.
    • It still won't add up to a real bear market.
  • A Reply To Charles Evans And The Necessity For Extended ZIRP
    Tue, Sep. 30 SPY, DIA, QQQ 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Chicago Fed President's Monday speech on monetary policy.
    • Measuring the effects of ultra-low policy rates.
    • Market implications for an extended continuation of current policy.
  • Housing Is Poised To Take Off Again - In The Next Cycle
    Tue, Sep. 30 XHB 22 Comments

    Summary

    • The current tightness in lending.
    • Prices versus income.
    • Outlook for the future.
  • Why The Fed Can't Save Us
    Fri, Sep. 26 SPY, DIA, QQQ 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Myths about monetary policy.
    • The importance of the business cycle.
    • The shrinking middle-class and the pressure on real income growth.
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy
    Thu, Sep. 18 DIA, SPY, QQQ 559 Comments

    Summary

    • The Hilsenrath webcast a day prior to the FOMC statement was revealing - as it was meant to be.
    • The Fed's track record on the last two cycles.
    • The rate transition will matter far more than the end-level.
  • A Very Imperfect Storm
    Thu, Sep. 11 SPY, QQQ, IWM 18 Comments

    Summary

    • August-September patterns in the stock market.
    • Market challenges are increasing in the weeks ahead.
    • A case for monetary policy normalization.
  • The Fallacy Of Central Bank Stimulus
    Thu, Sep. 4 DIA, SPY, QQQ 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Growth rates during the era of quantitative easing.
    • The fixation of investor sentiment with central bank stimulus.
    • Equity markets correct on the ends of business cycles, not on a few rate hikes.
  • Beware Of Mr. Market
    Thu, Aug. 28 SPY, DIA 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic data is giving mixed messages about stocks.
    • August data may move the market in surprising ways.
    • The bond market has its own message.
  • The Fed's Battle With The Economy
    Fri, Aug. 22 SPY, DIA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Markets are anticipating dovish comments from Yellen and Draghi.
    • The economy and corporate sectors appear to be stuck in one gear.
    • Implications of central bank moves.
  • 3 Trends To Watch
    Thu, Aug. 14 SPY, DIA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The economy, central bank policy, and stock market momentum are the dominant themes.
    • Recent developments support constrained continuity in the first two trends.
    • The current breakaway-momentum trend is getting long in the tooth and vulnerable.
  • Keeping Cool While Times Get Hot
    Thu, Aug. 7 SPY, DIA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock market isn't so weak, earnings are not so strong.
    • Nearing the end of the rebound effect.
    • The real test could come in the fall.
  • GDP And Fed Statement Equal More Of The Same
    Thu, Jul. 31 DIA, SPY, QQQ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Use caution with the initial GDP estimate, because they are volatile.
    • The longer-term trends of GDP growth appear to be unchanged, perhaps still sloping downward.
    • The FOMC promises more of the same, so long as the market pretends it's not promising anything.
  • The Blow-Off Top Is Here
    Fri, Jul. 25 DIA, SPY, QQQ 42 Comments

    Summary

    • The blow-off top vs. the final top.
    • Characteristics of the last two blow-off tops.
    • Positioning your portfolio - and your patience.
  • Keep Your Feet On The Ground As The Market Flies
    Thu, Jul. 17 SPY, DIA 18 Comments

    Summary

    • What do investors - or even the Fed - believe?
    • Economic growth rates remain unchanged, and so do predictions that they will get better.
    • The showdown between the Fed and traders is drawing nearer.
  • Are Central Banks Really Protecting Us?
    Fri, Jul. 11 VGK, SPY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The Bank of International Settlements issued some significant warnings in its latest Annual Report.
    • The Fed and the ECB seem likely to keep their own counsel.
    • Markets are showing the usual indifference to the economy.
  • Some Problems We Can See, Some Problems We Cannot
    Thu, Jul. 3 DIA, SPY, QQQ 55 Comments

    Summary

    • Long-term financial indicators are at danger levels.
    • Markets and the Fed are fixated on avoiding the last collapse.
    • The next bear market might not start with interest rates.
    • Some investing rules.
  • Inflation, Growth And The Stock Market
    Thu, Jun. 26 SPY, TLT 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The constant presence of geo-political worries.
    • The recently revived inflation worry.
    • Neither are likely to derail the stock market.
  • Is This The Real Life, Or Just Fed Fantasy?
    Thu, Jun. 19 SPY, DIA 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The level of fantasy in the stock market is directly proportional to the relative price level.
    • The chronology of a mature bull market correction.
    • Some facts and fantasy comparisons in the current stock market.
  • Be Careful Of Low Volume And High Euphoria
    Thu, Jun. 12 SPY, DIA 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Markets remain overextended, but could push higher first.
    • The current state of euphoric conditions and some implications.
    • A summer correction still looms.
  • May Is The New April, But Is The ECB The New Fed?
    Fri, Jun. 6 DIA, SPY, QQQ 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The weather rebound came a month later than anticipated.
    • Can last year's ECB-inspired multi-asset rally be repeated?
    • The stock market tries to guess what lies behind doors one, two and three.
  • How Stocks And Bonds Can Both Rally On Nothing
    Thu, May. 29 SPY, DIA, IWM 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Short positions in stocks and bonds have been fueling prices.
    • The same economic data feeds different biases.
    • Equities remain vulnerable.
  • Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast
    Fri, May. 23 SPY, DIA 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Why anxiety has been brewing over an imminent correction.
    • Why a correction has so far eluded us.
    • No catalyst equals no conviction.
  • Housing And GDP
    Fri, May. 16 IYR, REZ, XHB 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage credit remains tight.
    • Programs to enhance new home activity this cycle are unlikely.
    • Housing data indicates a smaller contribution to GDP growth this year.
  • Federal Reserve Policy And The Stock Market
    Fri, May. 2 SPY, DIA, IWM 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed's latest statement posits more of the same for policy and better times for the economy.
    • How the Fed would like to manage the latest stage of a mature economic cycle.
    • The data evidence does not yet suggest a fundamental economic shift is underway.
  • The First-Quarter Earnings Rally And The Stock Market's Coming New Highs
    Thu, Apr. 17 SPY, DIA, IWM 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The first quarter earnings rally has arrived.
    • Interpreting the latest economic data.
    • Be careful of central bank policy intentions.
  • The Words Go Round And Round
    Thu, Apr. 10 SPY, DIA, IBB 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock market has conflicting narratives.
    • The FOMC wrestles with its own narrative.
    • What the Fed's latest words might mean for the near term in equities.
  • The Fed's Chessboard
    Thu, Apr. 3 DIA, QQQ, SPY 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The state of the economy.
    • The state of what the Fed thinks about the economy.
    • How it matters to the markets.
  • This Is Still Not The Big One
    Thu, Mar. 27 SPY, DIA, IWM 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Warning Signs in the Stock Market.
    • Seasonal Dynamics.
    • Looking Ahead at April and May.
  • Don't Mistake The Fed - Or The Market
    Thu, Mar. 20 SPY, DIA, IWM 20 Comments

    Summary

    • The market's reaction to the FOMC meeting.
    • First quarter softness.
    • A window of vulnerability.
  • Clouds Gather For The Economy - If You're Willing To See
    Fri, Mar. 14 DIA, SPY, QQQ 74 Comments

    Summary

    • What recent economic data is saying.
    • What investors want it to say.
    • The market's outlook.