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The Fed's Battle With The Economy
- Markets are anticipating dovish comments from Yellen and Draghi.
- The economy and corporate sectors appear to be stuck in one gear.
- Implications of central bank moves.
3 Trends To Watch
- The economy, central bank policy, and stock market momentum are the dominant themes.
- Recent developments support constrained continuity in the first two trends.
- The current breakaway-momentum trend is getting long in the tooth and vulnerable.
Keeping Cool While Times Get Hot
- The stock market isn't so weak, earnings are not so strong.
- Nearing the end of the rebound effect.
- The real test could come in the fall.
GDP And Fed Statement Equal More Of The Same
- Use caution with the initial GDP estimate, because they are volatile.
- The longer-term trends of GDP growth appear to be unchanged, perhaps still sloping downward.
- The FOMC promises more of the same, so long as the market pretends it's not promising anything.
The Blow-Off Top Is Here
- The blow-off top vs. the final top.
- Characteristics of the last two blow-off tops.
- Positioning your portfolio - and your patience.
Keep Your Feet On The Ground As The Market Flies
- What do investors - or even the Fed - believe?
- Economic growth rates remain unchanged, and so do predictions that they will get better.
- The showdown between the Fed and traders is drawing nearer.
Are Central Banks Really Protecting Us?
- The Bank of International Settlements issued some significant warnings in its latest Annual Report.
- The Fed and the ECB seem likely to keep their own counsel.
- Markets are showing the usual indifference to the economy.
Some Problems We Can See, Some Problems We Cannot
- Long-term financial indicators are at danger levels.
- Markets and the Fed are fixated on avoiding the last collapse.
- The next bear market might not start with interest rates.
- Some investing rules.
Inflation, Growth And The Stock Market
- The constant presence of geo-political worries.
- The recently revived inflation worry.
- Neither are likely to derail the stock market.
Is This The Real Life, Or Just Fed Fantasy?
- The level of fantasy in the stock market is directly proportional to the relative price level.
- The chronology of a mature bull market correction.
- Some facts and fantasy comparisons in the current stock market.
Be Careful Of Low Volume And High Euphoria
- Markets remain overextended, but could push higher first.
- The current state of euphoric conditions and some implications.
- A summer correction still looms.
May Is The New April, But Is The ECB The New Fed?
- The weather rebound came a month later than anticipated.
- Can last year's ECB-inspired multi-asset rally be repeated?
- The stock market tries to guess what lies behind doors one, two and three.
How Stocks And Bonds Can Both Rally On Nothing
- Short positions in stocks and bonds have been fueling prices.
- The same economic data feeds different biases.
- Equities remain vulnerable.
Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast
- Why anxiety has been brewing over an imminent correction.
- Why a correction has so far eluded us.
- No catalyst equals no conviction.
Housing And GDP
- Mortgage credit remains tight.
- Programs to enhance new home activity this cycle are unlikely.
- Housing data indicates a smaller contribution to GDP growth this year.
Federal Reserve Policy And The Stock Market
- The Fed's latest statement posits more of the same for policy and better times for the economy.
- How the Fed would like to manage the latest stage of a mature economic cycle.
- The data evidence does not yet suggest a fundamental economic shift is underway.
The First-Quarter Earnings Rally And The Stock Market's Coming New Highs
- The first quarter earnings rally has arrived.
- Interpreting the latest economic data.
- Be careful of central bank policy intentions.
The Words Go Round And Round
- The stock market has conflicting narratives.
- The FOMC wrestles with its own narrative.
- What the Fed's latest words might mean for the near term in equities.
The Fed's Chessboard
- The state of the economy.
- The state of what the Fed thinks about the economy.
- How it matters to the markets.
This Is Still Not The Big One
- Warning Signs in the Stock Market.
- Seasonal Dynamics.
- Looking Ahead at April and May.
Don't Mistake The Fed - Or The Market
- The market's reaction to the FOMC meeting.
- First quarter softness.
- A window of vulnerability.
Clouds Gather For The Economy - If You're Willing To See
- What recent economic data is saying.
- What investors want it to say.
- The market's outlook.
The Greatest Winter In History
- There's more to the economy than weather.
- Rising prices distort information.
- The market is too complacent.
- A Deceptive Top In Equities
- The Weather, The Fed, The Economy And You
- Filling The Gap
- The Second Pivot Point For Equities
- Equities Are Bowed, But Not Beaten
- The Early Case For A First Quarter Top
- The First Pivot Point
- A Different Outlook For 2014 - Part 2
- A Different Outlook For 2014 - Part 1