May Is The New April, But Is The ECB The New Fed?
- The weather rebound came a month later than anticipated.
- Can last year's ECB-inspired multi-asset rally be repeated?
- The stock market tries to guess what lies behind doors one, two and three.
How Stocks And Bonds Can Both Rally On Nothing
- Short positions in stocks and bonds have been fueling prices.
- The same economic data feeds different biases.
- Equities remain vulnerable.
Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast
- Why anxiety has been brewing over an imminent correction.
- Why a correction has so far eluded us.
- No catalyst equals no conviction.
Housing And GDP
- Mortgage credit remains tight.
- Programs to enhance new home activity this cycle are unlikely.
- Housing data indicates a smaller contribution to GDP growth this year.
Federal Reserve Policy And The Stock Market
- The Fed's latest statement posits more of the same for policy and better times for the economy.
- How the Fed would like to manage the latest stage of a mature economic cycle.
- The data evidence does not yet suggest a fundamental economic shift is underway.
The First-Quarter Earnings Rally And The Stock Market's Coming New Highs
- The first quarter earnings rally has arrived.
- Interpreting the latest economic data.
- Be careful of central bank policy intentions.
The Words Go Round And Round
- The stock market has conflicting narratives.
- The FOMC wrestles with its own narrative.
- What the Fed's latest words might mean for the near term in equities.
The Fed's Chessboard
- The state of the economy.
- The state of what the Fed thinks about the economy.
- How it matters to the markets.
This Is Still Not The Big One
- Warning Signs in the Stock Market.
- Seasonal Dynamics.
- Looking Ahead at April and May.
Don't Mistake The Fed - Or The Market
- The market's reaction to the FOMC meeting.
- First quarter softness.
- A window of vulnerability.
Clouds Gather For The Economy - If You're Willing To See
- What recent economic data is saying.
- What investors want it to say.
- The market's outlook.
The Greatest Winter In History
- There's more to the economy than weather.
- Rising prices distort information.
- The market is too complacent.
- A Deceptive Top In Equities
- The Weather, The Fed, The Economy And You
- Filling The Gap
- The Second Pivot Point For Equities
- Equities Are Bowed, But Not Beaten
- The Early Case For A First Quarter Top
- The First Pivot Point
- A Different Outlook For 2014 - Part 2
- A Different Outlook For 2014 - Part 1
- A Sweet Time To Sell NetSuite
- Valuations And Inflows On The Eve Of 2014
- Lo, A Market E'er Booming
- A Disturbance In The Force
The Case Of The Identical Job Numbers
Dec. 7, 2013 • 17 Comments
- The Jobs Report Could Mean Trouble For QE
- Up, Up And Away - Almost
The Fed's Last Waltz
Nov. 26, 2013 • 28 Comments
- Data Driving Directions
- The Myth Of The Accelerating Economy
- Beware The Complacency Of The Crowd