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Kevin Flynn, CFA  

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  • A Note On Employment [View article]
    Yes, but the recent increases have not been duplicated in growth in the insured workforce, which is no better than the last cyclical peak and not as high as 2000. That suggests lots of part-time work to me. As well, the 2%+ growth rates are for the last five months. Let's see how the year plays out.
    Apr 3, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciphering The Fed [View article]
    Traders usually do get overly morose at bottoms and overconfident at tops, and are typically slow to reverse those moods. I don't consider Adami an oracle, but cited him as an example of someone in the current camp of market skeptics who believes that the market will nonetheless go higher.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciphering The Fed [View article]
    Be careful of what you wish for Stephen, I've got a couple more in the hopper I've been too busy to finish off, should be out in coming days.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Early Look At 2015 [View article]
    Thank you Mr. Bear, one of my favorite readers. I have one or two business cycle lights flashing yellow, but I will need to see more before I can get bearish. While the market is certainly not cheap, my guess is that it will take some more time before enough transpires that people start to believe that it won't go up anymore.
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Early Look At 2015 [View article]
    You are most welcome. I wrote in that column that four-quarter nominal GDP growth might slip back below 4%, and maybe it did - based on the first release, 4Q GDP is 3.7%.

    My own thinking was that inventories had gotten ahead of themselves at the end of Q3 and that there would likely be a bit of payback. That appears to have been the case, and the process may well drag on into Q1-15. But then the rebuild will start again, and should it coincide favorably with the spring calendar, then stocks could get giddy again - if there is no credit event in the interim.
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Are Better Than They Look, But Not The Economy [View article]
    We haven't remained decoupled, as our own growth would surely be higher if Europe was growing at a similar rate. Trade levels remain dismally weak.

    Zero European growth isn't likely to tip the US into recession, however; the leading candidate for that is the end of our own business cycle. Events from abroad that could hasten or precipitate that ending include a global recession and/or some sort of credit shock. It won't be 1% Fed fund rates.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Are Better Than They Look, But Not The Economy [View article]
    It is true that 4% nominal GDP growth is less likely to cause inflation. The idea that the cycle can stay "lower for longer" is just a promotional slogan, much like "the new economy." Business cycles come to an end with or without rising interest rates or fiscal measures, and this one will too.

    You might not want to take Chinese government data at face value, particularly GDP measures.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Are Better Than They Look, But Not The Economy [View article]
    I'm not sure what you're asking, or what definitions you're referring to. Are you wondering about the accuracy of retail sales reports?
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Myth And Financial Reality [View article]
    The Fed's capacity is limited to monetary policy - a "blunt instrument," as the bank has oft acknowledged over the years.
    Jan 3, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Myth And Financial Reality [View article]
    I don't share all of my data analytics. However, if you go to the BEA website you can find that the last business cycle ended in Q42007. Furthermore, you could find for yourself that peaks tend to precede the ends of cycles by about six to eighteen months. If you go to the BIS website, you can find their analysis that business cycles do not last more than eight years, though this is obviously not a physical law.
    Jan 2, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Myth And Financial Reality [View article]
    Real economists would not agree with your assertion that monetary stimulus "has the same exact effects on the money supply as tax cuts," nor does monetary stimulus necessarily reach more people across the economic spectrum.
    Jan 2, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Myth And Financial Reality [View article]
    And a Happy New Year to you too, Mr. Bear, one of my favorite readers!
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Just One Catch [View article]
    Also Hyman Minsky. It may well be that the Fed's determination to combat financial stress has lengthened the duration of the average bull market while increasing the size of the declines in bear markets. I'm expecting a big one myself at the end of the current bull.
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Just One Catch [View article]
    Alexander, I'll cop a nolo contendere on the Catholic school Latin!

    The "lower for longer" theme is another example in a long succession of excuses for why one cycle is going to be better than all the others. They all appeal on some intuitive grounds - e.g., less excess should mean less correction.

    I'm not aware of any evidence about weaker business cycles lasting longer. But weaker economies ARE more susceptible to catching a cold, and I think Q1-14 was a good example of that. Besides being not strong to begin with, the current cycle has two major vulnerabilities: stock market valuation is far, far ahead of the real economy (whatever perma-bulls may say - it's denied in every cycle), and the central banks have almost nothing left to cushion the fall.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Just One Catch [View article]
    I see the 7-10 year horizon for stock returns as being quite bleak at this point. I just think that they're going to go up more first.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
650 Comments
442 Likes