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Kevin Flynn, CFA  

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  • China's Cunning Plan To Revive Growth [View article]
    Cam, great article.
    May 29, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Stop Buying The Dips [View article]
    How indeed. It's a problem I have written about in the past. Still, the next contraction in the business cycle doesn't necessarily have to include a major recession for the real economy, though the damage to the financial economy rates to be significant.
    May 9, 2015. 01:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Stop Buying The Dips [View article]
    Negative profit growth for 2015 might begin to wear on the market.
    May 8, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Stop Buying The Dips [View article]
    Accumulating it. You have never enough cash at the bottom of cycles.
    May 8, 2015. 03:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Stop Buying The Dips [View article]
    Funny how it doesn't say "this is the top" anywhere in the article.
    May 8, 2015. 03:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Stop Buying The Dips [View article]
    Many veteran traders believe that the direction of jobs report revisions is a better indicator than the initial estimates. So far in 2015, we are averaging minus 40K a month in revisions, with every month in Q1 revised downwards.
    May 8, 2015. 03:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Stop Buying The Dips [View article]
    Bbro, I am not using the first quarter of 2015 as the evidence of a stall, but the last eight readings of four-quarter nominal GDP.
    May 7, 2015. 03:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good And Bad Of GDP [View article]
    Thank you.

    Keep in mind that employment is a lagging indicator. Typically it keeps growing well into a recession and contracting well into a recovery, so jobs do not provide the timeliest of indicators. My analysis of the data indicates that the jobs market entered its peak phase last August, and peaks typically have lasted about a year (emphasis on "about"). Jobs might keep chugging along for some number of months, or they might not, I only wish I had that kind of accuracy in foretelling.

    I can say that I've seen some mixed signals lately, which often result in downside surprises to the monthly jobs report - but sometimes don't. I can't predict the monthly data and don't try, but in the last week I've seen signs that we may get a weak April number followed by a better May number - and having said that, now we'll probably get the reverse! :)
    May 1, 2015. 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Note On Employment [View article]
    Yes, but the recent increases have not been duplicated in growth in the insured workforce, which is no better than the last cyclical peak and not as high as 2000. That suggests lots of part-time work to me. As well, the 2%+ growth rates are for the last five months. Let's see how the year plays out.
    Apr 3, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciphering The Fed [View article]
    Traders usually do get overly morose at bottoms and overconfident at tops, and are typically slow to reverse those moods. I don't consider Adami an oracle, but cited him as an example of someone in the current camp of market skeptics who believes that the market will nonetheless go higher.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciphering The Fed [View article]
    Be careful of what you wish for Stephen, I've got a couple more in the hopper I've been too busy to finish off, should be out in coming days.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Early Look At 2015 [View article]
    Thank you Mr. Bear, one of my favorite readers. I have one or two business cycle lights flashing yellow, but I will need to see more before I can get bearish. While the market is certainly not cheap, my guess is that it will take some more time before enough transpires that people start to believe that it won't go up anymore.
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Early Look At 2015 [View article]
    You are most welcome. I wrote in that column that four-quarter nominal GDP growth might slip back below 4%, and maybe it did - based on the first release, 4Q GDP is 3.7%.

    My own thinking was that inventories had gotten ahead of themselves at the end of Q3 and that there would likely be a bit of payback. That appears to have been the case, and the process may well drag on into Q1-15. But then the rebuild will start again, and should it coincide favorably with the spring calendar, then stocks could get giddy again - if there is no credit event in the interim.
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Are Better Than They Look, But Not The Economy [View article]
    We haven't remained decoupled, as our own growth would surely be higher if Europe was growing at a similar rate. Trade levels remain dismally weak.

    Zero European growth isn't likely to tip the US into recession, however; the leading candidate for that is the end of our own business cycle. Events from abroad that could hasten or precipitate that ending include a global recession and/or some sort of credit shock. It won't be 1% Fed fund rates.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Are Better Than They Look, But Not The Economy [View article]
    It is true that 4% nominal GDP growth is less likely to cause inflation. The idea that the cycle can stay "lower for longer" is just a promotional slogan, much like "the new economy." Business cycles come to an end with or without rising interest rates or fiscal measures, and this one will too.

    You might not want to take Chinese government data at face value, particularly GDP measures.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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658 Comments
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