Choosing Between Equities And Bonds [View article]
Thank you Larry, and to your point, it's a valid one. I don't expect a big number tomorrow, but the jobs report always feels like the NFL: anything can happen in one game. A big number could cause problems for both stocks and bonds.
On May 16th, I wrote that it was time to start selling. On May 23rd, I recommended selling bounces instead of buying dips. On the 30th I reiterated staying away from buying.
If you feel that three columns of sell warnings is nevertheless vague or unclear, then I will try to help: Selling rebound attempts is the best short-term strategy.
Just how much impact have buybacks had on S&P 500 companies' bottom lines? According to JPMorgan, 60% of the growth in TTM operating earnings from Q3 2011 to Q1 2013 is attributable not to organic growth, but to the impact of share buybacks. [View news story]
What do hedge funds see that Seeking Alpha readers don't? Of Goldman's list of stocks most-loved by hedge funds, two - John Malone cable plays Virgin Media (VMED) and Charter Communications (CHTR) - are barely followed by our readers, each with less than 500 Real Time Email Alerts subscribers. Another three - Hertz (HTZ), CBS, and Equinix (EQIX) - have, at best, moderate followings (1,100-1,400 subscribers). For comparison: Hess has 3.5K, GM 11.4K, JPM 23K, Google 76K, Apple 180K. While hedge funds as a whole struggle to beat the market, their top 20 holdings have done so with ease this year. [View news story]
One of the principal reasons that top 20 holdings have beaten the market is because - they're a top 20 holding. Volume buying pushes up the price in an auction market, ever notice that?
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]
Thank you for the kind words.
Corrections typically start out with dip-buyers and wise guys coming in at the close to try and push it back. The ones that start off steep tend to stay that way and will push into 15-20% decline territory, while garden variety ones usually start out with a decline of a few percent, followed by a partial rebound. The heavy damage will usually come in concentrated bursts towards the end.
It's a sentiment-driven process, always difficult to say in advance which predator will be the one that makes the market truly take fright. Right now the two monsters in the closet are growth slowdown & Fed slowdown. Japan, China, or just a single weak report coming on top of everything else, or out of the blue, could be the thing that starts the stampede to safety.
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]
I'm not sure either, especially with two weeks to go. The April report launched markets 5% higher in two weeks. The May report could do the same, or it could do the opposite. It may depend on how many hospitality & leisure jobs get modeled.
Choosing Between Equities And Bonds [View article]
Choosing Between Equities And Bonds [View article]
Choosing Between Equities And Bonds [View article]
No Need To Rush Back In Yet [View article]
No Need To Rush Back In Yet [View article]
If you feel that three columns of sell warnings is nevertheless vague or unclear, then I will try to help: Selling rebound attempts is the best short-term strategy.
No Need To Rush Back In Yet [View article]
No Need To Rush Back In Yet [View article]
Just how much impact have buybacks had on S&P 500 companies' bottom lines? According to JPMorgan, 60% of the growth in TTM operating earnings from Q3 2011 to Q1 2013 is attributable not to organic growth, but to the impact of share buybacks. [View news story]
What do hedge funds see that Seeking Alpha readers don't? Of Goldman's list of stocks most-loved by hedge funds, two - John Malone cable plays Virgin Media (VMED) and Charter Communications (CHTR) - are barely followed by our readers, each with less than 500 Real Time Email Alerts subscribers. Another three - Hertz (HTZ), CBS, and Equinix (EQIX) - have, at best, moderate followings (1,100-1,400 subscribers). For comparison: Hess has 3.5K, GM 11.4K, JPM 23K, Google 76K, Apple 180K. While hedge funds as a whole struggle to beat the market, their top 20 holdings have done so with ease this year. [View news story]
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]
Corrections typically start out with dip-buyers and wise guys coming in at the close to try and push it back. The ones that start off steep tend to stay that way and will push into 15-20% decline territory, while garden variety ones usually start out with a decline of a few percent, followed by a partial rebound. The heavy damage will usually come in concentrated bursts towards the end.
It's a sentiment-driven process, always difficult to say in advance which predator will be the one that makes the market truly take fright. Right now the two monsters in the closet are growth slowdown & Fed slowdown. Japan, China, or just a single weak report coming on top of everything else, or out of the blue, could be the thing that starts the stampede to safety.
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]
Don't Buy The Dip Yet - Sell The Bounce [View article]