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Kevin Flynn

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  • The First-Quarter Earnings Rally And The Stock Market's Coming New Highs [View article]
    Creese I am tempted to say that the question merits either a 5000-word response or none at all. In short, the market is overvalued and overbought at extreme levels on a long-term basis. That alone doesn't suffice to bring markets down, but the Fed's accommodation policy is winding down and that changes the narrative. Do not make the mistake of thinking that an overleveraged market needs a robust economic downturn to correct, or that markets can only rally strongly on robust upturns.
    Apr 18 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The First-Quarter Earnings Rally And The Stock Market's Coming New Highs [View article]
    I think the S&P could go even lower than 1700 - but it will go to 1900 first.
    Apr 17 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Words Go Round And Round [View article]
    It's an interesting view Barry. I'm not ready to get long for the Q1 rally yet, but I do believe it will come. Options traders are all manic depressives. :)

    Keep in mind the terrific handwringing that accompanied the January downturn, followed by a later new high. I think that the heightened volatility does indeed presage a sea change, but the real bleeding is going to come later.
    Apr 10 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Words Go Round And Round [View article]
    Thank you eagle. I think the current downside is limited to the 1800 area, and don't see a 10% correction quite yet - not without Russian tanks in the Ukraine.
    Apr 10 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Words Go Round And Round [View article]
    It might work out. Personally, I would have waited a bit longer.
    Apr 10 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Words Go Round And Round [View article]
    Thanks SilverD. It isn't just CNBC - Bloomberg has been running at least two stories a week about how the recovery is now gaining traction for the last few years.

    I wonder how CEOs will position things in the next few things - blame it on the weather, yes, but will they reload it all into the second quarter (fans the rally) or simply leave guidance (and the rally) unchanged. ,
    Apr 10 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Words Go Round And Round [View article]
    I worry about that too.
    Apr 10 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sweet Time To Sell NetSuite [View article]
    I note that Netsuite broke below its long-term trendline today, the one extending back to Oct 2011. Not supportive.
    Apr 3 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Chessboard [View article]
    It's a hedge.
    Apr 3 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Chessboard [View article]
    I don't see it that way, and I don't think the Fed does either. QE is really meant to operate on the longer end of the yield curve, while reverse repos are the front end. It certainly looks as if the Fed is planning to use reverse repos as QE winds down as a way to tighten liquidity without changing rate guidance, and maybe offset the effect of a possible cut in the interest rate on deposits. I think the market has already started to anticipate it, perhaps explaining the recent flattening in yields. We'll see.
    Apr 3 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Chessboard [View article]
    Just a technical glitch; it was only meant as one and will end up as one.
    Apr 3 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Chessboard [View article]
    Logical I meant to say "overbought," and it is now corrected. Perhaps I had "sell" on the brain.
    Apr 3 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sweet Time To Sell NetSuite [View article]
    I don't wish anything. I just think it will go to $30 by the end of next year.
    Mar 28 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sweet Time To Sell NetSuite [View article]
    No I wouldn't invest in N here. I think it's going to $30.
    Mar 28 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Still Not The Big One [View article]
    411406, I feel your pain. My response could fill an entire book (my Irish ancestry?), but I'll try to be brief.

    The greatest threat to long-term performance is not the agony of loss. It is the agony of seeing others make more money than you. It keeps people people in expensive situations that they shouldn't be in - after all, you can't time the market, right? Then it keeps them out of dirt-cheap situations - after all, who knows where the bottom is?

    Most individual investors I've met fail at risk management because they want to be binary - all in, or all out. Only God can figure that one out. I'll pass on what I told non-client friends in January - whatever you have in equities, cut it by 25%. Every quarter the market marches higher, take another 10% off. Forget about trying to be there at the very top - getting out of stocks six months early never hurt anybody, but getting out six months late can ruin your life.

    By the way, inflation is not the only mover of yields.
    Mar 28 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
516 Comments
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