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Kevin McElroy  

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  • Calling the End of the Commodity Bull Market Is a Fool's Errand [View article]
    I agree that gold is expensive now, but you have to ask yourself, what is it expensive in comparison to, and also, why is it expensive?

    If the answer to the first question is stocks - then I'm inclined to invest in stocks. But on a historical basis, stocks are overpriced in comparison to gold.

    If the answer to the first question is bonds, then I'd be inclined to buy bonds, but bonds are clearly overpriced, backstopped by nothing but Ben Bernanke's magic money computer.

    If the answer to the first question is other commodities, such as oil, natural gas, coal, potash, etc. - then I happen to agree with you. But I can't fill my safety deposit box with potash, or oil, or natural gas or coal.

    If the answer to the second question is "because world bankers are raiding their currencies to pay for decades of unsustainable government policy" then I don't see why I should own some other currency for the long term instead of gold.
    Jun 5, 2011. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Number One Reason to Buy Apple Right Now [View article]
    Excellent comment
    Jun 5, 2011. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Number One Reason to Buy Apple Right Now [View article]
    Because not all analysts have the time, money or ability to act on everything they research. They also might have different investment goals than the people they're writing for.

    Or maybe they're otherwise prevented from investing in a given security.

    The point is: the analysis is what you should pay attention to. Without good analysis, you're not going to make money anyway.
    Jun 4, 2011. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Number One Reason to Buy Apple Right Now [View article]
    I've seen criticism go both ways. And both ways are wrong. The only thing you should consider when reading someone's opinion on whether to buy or sell a stock is the merits of their arguments.

    Someone's ownership or non-ownership does not change the truth of what they say. It's either true, or it's not. It's either solid analysis or it's not. Their ownership is at best a distant concern.

    Look at what is being said, not who is saying it.

    In this case, Mr. Zimbardo might be right or wrong in his analysis, but it's not because he owns Apple. It's because he's right. Or he's wrong.
    Jun 4, 2011. 10:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monsanto: Buy This Hated Agriculture Stock [View article]
    I can cite Stigler and still be non-interventionist. Don't let consistency be such a hobgoblin.

    I'm the furthest thing from a Marxist, but I can pull some of his work into the mix too - and still be an anarcho-capitalist.

    It's kind of silly to go around thinking that if anyone EVER quotes someone with a given viewpoint that they are automatically affiliated with that viewpoint forever, period, end of discussion - "no ambiguity."

    Do they have sand in Oregon, Al? If so, pull your head out of it.
    May 30, 2011. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monsanto: Buy This Hated Agriculture Stock [View article]
    Who said I was pro-regulation or anti-biotech? I loathe the regulatory constructs in this country, but I recognize that they aid companies like Monsanto.

    I know that it's confusing for my personal feelings to be divorced from my investment thesis, but you should follow suit if you intend to make any money as an investor.
    May 27, 2011. 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monsanto: Buy This Hated Agriculture Stock [View article]
    You don't sound very pragmatic.
    May 27, 2011. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Ditch the Dollar And Buy Chinese Renminbi [View article]
    Evaluating companies with certified and audited earnings reports is difficult enough!

    But it's a good question. The RMB and the dollar have so little common ground to make direct comparisons on, that it probably wouldn't be very useful to make any kind of fair value guess.

    And if the RMB was freely traded, and Chinese Treasuries could be bought and sold by anyone, it wouldn't even be a question. We'd know. I've been talking with my colleagues about building a model to evaluate currencies on some basic metrics like debt-to-gdp, growth rates, population age, taxes, etc. to see if we can arrive at any meaningful assumptions. I'll keep you posted.
    May 17, 2011. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver - Prepare for the Flood [View article]
    I'm not inclined to point out someone's age as a reason why they might be right or wrong. I have unending respect for Richard Russell, but it's not because he's in his 80s. And when he's wrong, it's not because he's too old. When he's right, it's not because of decades of experiences.

    If Glen is wrong, it's not because he's in his 20s or 30s. I happen to think he's probably right that silver will slide a bit further over the short term, but I'm not a day-trader so I really don't care. I think he's probably wrong about a variety of other things, but lets not drag age into the equation.

    That's ageism. And it's not okay.
    May 7, 2011. 08:39 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Ditch the Dollar And Buy Chinese Renminbi [View article]
    Thanks for bringing this fund to my attention. It doesn't appear to be as pure a play as I would like, however, and it's very, very small.

    It's also not ideal for the purpose of holding RMB in the first place. In the event of a dollar crisis, I won't want to cash in this ETF for dollars - but that will be my only choice!

    That's the whole point of opening the deposit account in RMB. It's a pure play, and it gets me out of dollars.
    Apr 29, 2011. 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truly Remarkable Run of Silver [View article]
    Good question. I think most people kind of have this reaction to the idea of owning gold and silver - they think: if the world ends, will it matter if I was able to put 5-10% of my assets in PMs?

    In that Mad-Max scenario, you're probably right. PMs might not be of significant use. Or maybe they will. Who knows.

    But the reason to own gold and silver isn't because you believe in a Beyond Thunderdome scenario. There are many, many points along the continuum of currency collapse, inflation, hyper-inflation, revolution, loss of western hegemony, breakdown of the oil markets, etc. where gold and silver will perform significantly better than the alternative: paper money.

    There are even scenarios for boom times that would make gold and silver very attractive money commodities. At some point, people are going to wake up to the greatest swindle of all time: the assertion by central bankers that paper or ones and zeros are money. It's a mass delusion that will come to an end sooner rather than later, and when people realize it, they'll flood into PMs. Oh wait, they are flooding in to PMs.

    No, gold won't stop the barbarian hordes. It won't buy the last scrap of bread in existence. It won't save your life when the New World Army dumps nerve toxin in the water supply. But it will preserve your capital in the event that the end of the world is not nigh.

    By the way, that's the only reason to own physical gold and silver: to preserve your capital. You won't get rich owning physical. You might see some gains, but the reason to own PMs at this point is: Store of value. Medium of exchange. That's what money is!
    Apr 24, 2011. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Situation Could Be Worse Than We Thought [View article]
    Yes my initial comment was intended to mirror how Americans might have reacted in 2007 to $4 gasoline had they been told it would arrive within 12 months.
    Apr 24, 2011. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's in Store for Silver? [View article]
    The dollar index will likely see a pop, but the index isn't what's driving silver priced in dollars.

    And during the last crisis, (the tsunami in Japan), we didn't see the usual cash-flows to US Treasuries - we saw the yen pop, and we saw hard assets pop.

    I wrote about this earlier this month:
    Apr 23, 2011. 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Situation Could Be Worse Than We Thought [View article]
    You can sum it up with one class. "No Free Lunch 101."

    That's something my parents taught me before I went to elementary school. Until someone invents a robot made out of hope that gets its energy from the sun, everything you get in life comes from the sweat of someone's brow. If they're "giving" it to you for free, they either want something in return or they stole it in the first place.

    If you're a good person, the idea of taking something forcefully from someone else should leave a bad taste in your mouth.

    These are the kinds of rules most decent people learned before they could talk. The political class seems to be completely deficient of the most basic sense of right and wrong. You can see this deficiency, plain as day, in almost every single policy they enact.
    Apr 23, 2011. 10:12 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's in Store for Silver? [View article]
    You should consider reading the work of my friend and colleague Andy Crowder here on SA.

    I'd recommend reading his stuff and then asking him a few questions about general options strategies.

    BTW, I know he recently made a decent profit shorting silver on that ~1% dip early last week.

    I'm not an options trader myself, but he has a very conservative strategy he uses to go long or short certain ETFs when they're hyper-extended the other way. It seems to work well for him.
    Apr 22, 2011. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment