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Kevin McElroy

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  • How To Ditch the Dollar And Buy Chinese Renminbi [View article]
    Thanks for bringing this fund to my attention. It doesn't appear to be as pure a play as I would like, however, and it's very, very small.

    It's also not ideal for the purpose of holding RMB in the first place. In the event of a dollar crisis, I won't want to cash in this ETF for dollars - but that will be my only choice!

    That's the whole point of opening the deposit account in RMB. It's a pure play, and it gets me out of dollars.
    Apr 29 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's in Store for Silver? [View article]
    You should consider reading the work of my friend and colleague Andy Crowder here on SA.

    I'd recommend reading his stuff and then asking him a few questions about general options strategies.

    BTW, I know he recently made a decent profit shorting silver on that ~1% dip early last week.

    I'm not an options trader myself, but he has a very conservative strategy he uses to go long or short certain ETFs when they're hyper-extended the other way. It seems to work well for him.
    Apr 22 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese CEOs: Cook Your Books at Your Own Peril [View article]
    You're missing the point. The public perception of yum brands is that it's an American company. People have been to a Pizza Hut. They know it exists.

    But the American investment public is understandably skeptical about Chinese companies - especially Chinese small caps. The perception of these companies gets renewed to the downside every time one of these hack pieces (true or untrue) gets publicity. Like it or not, that's going to keep happening until there's some kind of renaissance of honesty at the corporate level for these Chinese companies.

    Until that happens, I'm not really itching to put capital at risk in Chinese small caps.

    Alfred Little is no friend of mine, but he might be a friend of yours if you were bullish on Deer before he launched his attack when the stock was $11. You should have seen his "fraud" as a great opportunity get longer on Deer.
    Apr 21 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Impossible Dilemma [View article]
    I believe you're probably right. But funding banks without at least one, big, transparent 'benefit' for main street would be a tough sell, even for the Fed.
    Mar 26 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Wrong on Gold, Again [View article]
    You can make the same faulty argument about any commodity, and you'd come to the same wrong conclusions.
    Feb 14 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Richmont Mines Shows Why Gold and Silver Bars Don't Cut It [View article]
    I think you should re-read that first paragraph. The value of physical PMs is not in dispute. The author is simply pointing out that physical PMs are not likely to give you a real return on investment. The price of gold may go up, but that's a function of weak currencies.
    Feb 10 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Wrong on Gold, Again [View article]
    Good idea. I'll try to write such an article soon.
    Feb 7 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Housing Advice of the Day, Philly Edition [View article]
    So we're redefining what an investment is to now include items that are expensive relative to someone's earnings? Seems like a definition that's fraught with problems.

    I understand what you're trying to say, but just because an asset requires money management, doesn't mean it's an investment. That's how you get people talking about their most frivolous purchases as investments.
    Feb 5 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bond Market Vigilantes Work [View article]
    All my comments deleted, but my point: there's no evidence supporting 10% growth in Federal Revenues.
    Dec 16 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bond Market Vigilantes Work [View article]
    I'm extremely underwhelmed by the research paper you linked to. Taxes create demand, deficits are REQUIRED for growth? Money didn't exist before the government printed it into existence?

    Entirely theoretical and heretofore blown to smithereens by oh...every other paper money experiment except for the one we're currently running with dollars.

    As Rick Rule says, paper money's track record is so far unblemished by success.

    But utter failure won't stop neo-Keynesians. Not today, and not even when the whole house of cards falls on top of us. Krugman will say, "we didn't print enough" as he blows his nose with what's left of the dollar.

    I'm sorry, but circular logic, no matter how eloquently written or convenient to the policy of deficit spending WILL not keep the lights on.
    Dec 16 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bond Market Vigilantes Work [View article]
    Well, they're either rising 10% a year, or they're not. If they are (remains to be seen) then does the author mean they're rising from where they were in 2009 - or are they rising from 2007 levels?

    According to the government itself, we're due for slightly higher Federal tax receipts this year than last. www.taxpolicycenter.or...

    Even though the government projects tax receipt growth over the next five years they STILL project deficits.

    Does not gibe. So what's the story here. Is the author blowing smoke, or is he asleep at the wheel or is there some other catchy idiom I can use to explain the discrepancy?
    Dec 16 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Bond Yields to Skyrocket [View article]
    Governments have defaulted on their debt. It's the preferable option, because it would punish debt-holders foolish enough to buy US govt debt at such a rabid pace in the first place.

    How would it work? It would work the same way that every default has ever worked: the government tells debt-holders that it will be paying pennies on the dollar on what it owes.

    And inflation is a form of default - it's just the kind of default that burns everyone holding the asset that's being inflated.
    Dec 14 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Ireland's Bailout Means for Commodities [View article]
    Here's one source:

    I should clarify, the $867 billion includes debt held by Irish banks - not just the Irish government.
    Nov 30 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: The Best, Worst and Likely Scenarios [View article]
    No. I generally don't advocate buying silver ETFs as an alternative to buying physical silver. I'm not a trader however.

    If you want leverage on silver, wouldn't it make more sense to trade options on SLV?
    Nov 29 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium: The Worst Reason to Buy It, The Perfect Stock to Buy [View article]
    I'll let Wowzerstu speak for Lynas, but about CREQF:

    I know very little about the company - first off, but you have to be aware that China stocks generally, and REE stocks in specific trade in tandem with China sentiment in the short term.

    These REE stocks will get wholesale slaughtered with any bad or middling news from China. Obviously if you like CREQF as a long term play, you can effectively use negative China sentiment as good opportunities to average in to the stock.

    I don't know what either stock has to do with uranium, however.
    Nov 17 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment