Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
River1998, That's a very good question, but not one that I can directly address. Until the details of the agreement with Bunge are made public, I won't even consider it worthwhile to speculate at this point. As in the prior case, I expect the framework agreement to eventually become an binding agreement. At that point, more details will likely be released.
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
Lol, well I for one believe my crystal ball will probably need polishing as time goes on. There really are too many variables to possibly calculate them all reasonably. Remember also I've included the capacity as if SZYM were the one to receive the revenues. This may not be the case for some of the JV's. If nothing less, I hope these projections give an illustration of value, but is probably not representative of actual guidance going forward. Thanks for the confidence however. I appreciate it.
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
Appreciate it, 20147. Just remember I've used some assumptions in this particular article that have yet to come to pass. I believe they are likely, but it's something to keep in mind.
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
Do you think this is the case even after the introduction of a second skin care line? Just curious. I can imagine I was a bit lofty here, but just applied a degrading growth rate of about 100%, 70%, 30%, 20%
In the expectations list quite a few presentations ago (among the first reports), the co included the intro of a second skin care line in 2012 (probably late 2012). I'm not sure if this is still on the agenda or on time. But if so, do you still think they would peak at 25-30? Thanks for the comment.
These CEOs Are Buying Their Own Companies' Stock, But Should You? [View article]
It couldn't hurt. To be fair though, until the SEC actually lays out what exactly it's chasing after and subsequently drops its pursuit, it's hard to rest easy. I've seen too many companies get destroyed by the SEC to believe much good can come about from them. One bad announcement concerning this could easily break a solid company. With the amount of time it'll take for MCP to ramp up its production & improve its earnings capability, I still find no reason to snatch up shares right away. I'm bullish long-term, but there isn't a real case to be made for having to buy right away imo.
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
Company's retaining that information to not give away their negotiating powers. It's been stated many times. However, S-1 filing indicated at a commercial scale fit-for-purpose plant, cost of production is believed at time of IPO to be around $1000/MT or less. Also falls in line with expected margins.
I got a feeling you want to see things proven before speculating on value, so you have me at a disadvantage here. If you want proof of everything I'd suggest you move on (and i mean no offense in saying this). This company's likely only for those able to piece together a much bigger concept found in high-margin tailored oil solutions & the changing dynamics of the plant oils market. Thanks for the comments though.
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
I'm not here to convince you, but I would encourage you to read more. You're using errant assumptions to come to your conclusions. For starters, you must understand the company isn't producing at a large commercial scale yet. I like that you broke the revenues into product revenues, but to apply that to the net loss isn't correct. In fact, what you should've noticed was that the product revenues carried a gross margin north of 65%, which is quite high. The company can carry such high margins due to its multiple industries it's able to tap into. Product revenues are also growing at more than a 100% growth rate as Algenist ramps up.
At present, the bulk of the costs & revenues involved relate to R&D & cap ex on construction. The limited mfg capacity restricts the amount of product revenues as there's roughly only 2k MT of capability available, assuming Peoria's even optimally running. On the other hand we're talking about having more than 500k MT online in less than 4 years with the pathways to accomplishing this already being shown through very established partners.
With the ability to customize tailored oil solutions, the first time this has even been accomplished, one would imagine the margins can be quite high too. We've yet to even get to that stage although the oil profiles are now being announced. As stated before, I'm not here to convince you of what to do, but you might want to look into things a little more. If nothing more, check up on the company in 2 years time after some real mfg capacity is up if you remain a skeptic now.
side note on the energy: even in the new clinton site, the company's going to be using cogeneration to alleviate energy costs. just a thought on the issue. in brazil I believe theyll burn the bagasse to help fuel the future plant
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
mpmorphy,
Thanks for reading and I appreciate the support. I hope to write a bit more in-depth in regards to breaking down the future revenue stream in a short while. However one of the largest factors that is currently deterring me is how complex the financials actually are in getting broken down. The joint ventures make it difficult to simply attribute revenue to the company. Likewise it becomes a bit more complicated when you consider the vast amount of unknowns - everything from green credits, to the long facility ramp up times, to byproduct streams, to a wide gross margin range dependent on market, etc etc.
Additionally, I feel like one of the main problems with the company today is a general misunderstanding of the bigger picture and even the technology's capabilities themselves. Based on feedback alone, even fellow bulls still seem to have a variety of errant perceptions. This is why I've been playing it safer by sticking to the concepts I can try to piece together for readers. But sooner or later, I'll try to give it a shot & break down some numbers.
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
De-regionalize the production. You nailed it. I plan to try to bring this up in more detail at a later time assuming my editors let it go through as being relevant.
Solazyme Confidently Delivers As Investors Feared The Worst [View article]
Dagosta,
Thanks for reading, I appreciate it. First of all, in case you were, I think its an errant way of thinking that dilution is the game-over scenario for this company. Hands down you should include future dilution into the scenario. Personally, the way I figure, I roughly estimate (maybe conservatively or not, i'm not sure) that we'll be at 70-75 million shares by 2015's end.
However, the company has asserted that it does not need additional capital prior to becoming cash flow positive and I fully believe this will be the case. This should occur in either late 2013 or early 2014. This latest announcement w/ ADM further accelerates the ability for production to come online in a very capital efficient manner by avoiding much of the start-up capital costs needed to construct a facility. Additionally, the company is able to pay for services in stock which I'm more than sure they'll take advantage of.
As for right now, the bulk of their capital is going to R&D expenses so I believe that their burn rate will increase as additional cap expenses accrue & ramp up. Of course this is presuming R&D stays the same or increases. The opposite is true if they lower their R&D expenses, so who knows. The thing to really look out for now is whether that debt financing goes through. I don't believe it's being relied upon right now, but it would essentially extend liquidity out by many months
I personally believe that the news catalysts are going to begin increasing as we go into 2014, and the stock price is likely to be all over the map throughout. But at the same time, going into 2014 revenue's are going to increase exponentially and the company will gain much more attention. I've always seen this upcoming year as an accumulation year personally, but I'll be honest that I'm very surprised the stock has come down this far.
It appears as if the future income streams are either in question by the investment community or is widely discounted altogether. It'll be interesting to see what they think going forward, but I think a large reason for this disconnect is due to the complexity of the company's operations & goals. It's not an easy company to understand, let alone an easy task to see why it stands tall amidst an industry that's aching.
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
That's a very good question, but not one that I can directly address. Until the details of the agreement with Bunge are made public, I won't even consider it worthwhile to speculate at this point. As in the prior case, I expect the framework agreement to eventually become an binding agreement. At that point, more details will likely be released.
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
Solazyme's Long-Term Value Provides Opportunity Through Misconception [View article]
In the expectations list quite a few presentations ago (among the first reports), the co included the intro of a second skin care line in 2012 (probably late 2012). I'm not sure if this is still on the agenda or on time. But if so, do you still think they would peak at 25-30? Thanks for the comment.
These CEOs Are Buying Their Own Companies' Stock, But Should You? [View article]
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
I got a feeling you want to see things proven before speculating on value, so you have me at a disadvantage here. If you want proof of everything I'd suggest you move on (and i mean no offense in saying this). This company's likely only for those able to piece together a much bigger concept found in high-margin tailored oil solutions & the changing dynamics of the plant oils market. Thanks for the comments though.
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
At present, the bulk of the costs & revenues involved relate to R&D & cap ex on construction. The limited mfg capacity restricts the amount of product revenues as there's roughly only 2k MT of capability available, assuming Peoria's even optimally running. On the other hand we're talking about having more than 500k MT online in less than 4 years with the pathways to accomplishing this already being shown through very established partners.
With the ability to customize tailored oil solutions, the first time this has even been accomplished, one would imagine the margins can be quite high too. We've yet to even get to that stage although the oil profiles are now being announced. As stated before, I'm not here to convince you of what to do, but you might want to look into things a little more. If nothing more, check up on the company in 2 years time after some real mfg capacity is up if you remain a skeptic now.
side note on the energy: even in the new clinton site, the company's going to be using cogeneration to alleviate energy costs. just a thought on the issue. in brazil I believe theyll burn the bagasse to help fuel the future plant
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
Thanks for reading and I appreciate the support. I hope to write a bit more in-depth in regards to breaking down the future revenue stream in a short while. However one of the largest factors that is currently deterring me is how complex the financials actually are in getting broken down. The joint ventures make it difficult to simply attribute revenue to the company. Likewise it becomes a bit more complicated when you consider the vast amount of unknowns - everything from green credits, to the long facility ramp up times, to byproduct streams, to a wide gross margin range dependent on market, etc etc.
Additionally, I feel like one of the main problems with the company today is a general misunderstanding of the bigger picture and even the technology's capabilities themselves. Based on feedback alone, even fellow bulls still seem to have a variety of errant perceptions. This is why I've been playing it safer by sticking to the concepts I can try to piece together for readers. But sooner or later, I'll try to give it a shot & break down some numbers.
Kevin
Solazyme: Agribusiness Ponders A New Path To Oil Production [View article]
Algae Fuel For Regular Diesel Prices? Solazyme Makes It Happen [View article]
¿Que?
Solazyme Confidently Delivers As Investors Feared The Worst [View article]
Solazyme Confidently Delivers As Investors Feared The Worst [View article]
Solazyme Confidently Delivers As Investors Feared The Worst [View article]
Thanks for reading, I appreciate it. First of all, in case you were, I think its an errant way of thinking that dilution is the game-over scenario for this company. Hands down you should include future dilution into the scenario. Personally, the way I figure, I roughly estimate (maybe conservatively or not, i'm not sure) that we'll be at 70-75 million shares by 2015's end.
However, the company has asserted that it does not need additional capital prior to becoming cash flow positive and I fully believe this will be the case. This should occur in either late 2013 or early 2014. This latest announcement w/ ADM further accelerates the ability for production to come online in a very capital efficient manner by avoiding much of the start-up capital costs needed to construct a facility. Additionally, the company is able to pay for services in stock which I'm more than sure they'll take advantage of.
As for right now, the bulk of their capital is going to R&D expenses so I believe that their burn rate will increase as additional cap expenses accrue & ramp up. Of course this is presuming R&D stays the same or increases. The opposite is true if they lower their R&D expenses, so who knows. The thing to really look out for now is whether that debt financing goes through. I don't believe it's being relied upon right now, but it would essentially extend liquidity out by many months
I personally believe that the news catalysts are going to begin increasing as we go into 2014, and the stock price is likely to be all over the map throughout. But at the same time, going into 2014 revenue's are going to increase exponentially and the company will gain much more attention. I've always seen this upcoming year as an accumulation year personally, but I'll be honest that I'm very surprised the stock has come down this far.
It appears as if the future income streams are either in question by the investment community or is widely discounted altogether. It'll be interesting to see what they think going forward, but I think a large reason for this disconnect is due to the complexity of the company's operations & goals. It's not an easy company to understand, let alone an easy task to see why it stands tall amidst an industry that's aching.
kevin