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Kevin Quon  

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  • Amyris: Can This Industrial Biotechnology Pioneer Still Thrive? [View article]
    I wish AMRS the best as well, Maxx. As long as they can keep to their targets and stay solvent, their technology will be useful.

    I have no idea what your offensive comment is trying to convey: "Yes, fuels are low-margin as you continuously scream away anyone that suggests Solazyme will produce a drop of fuels, but I don't think a farnesene production facility at nameplate will have a problem with margins."

    But I do hope as well that they'll be able to make affordable fuels. That would be very beneficial for the world. It will take a significant amount of capital to build additional facilities in order to address this market, so I do hope that AMRS concentrates on higher-margin, non-fuel applications for the time being in order to preserve depleted cash reserves.

    The longer AMRS concentrates on fuels (likely being produced at a loss), the more investors will feel the pain along the way. Like SZYM, I hope that AMRS only dabbles in fuels for the coming years in order to show the long-term potential that awaits. Given that Total is controlling the purse, however, such a hope may be difficult to see realized. Good luck with AMRS's ongoing ramp-up operation this year as well. Quite the tortoise & the hare scenario developing here given AMRS's early jump in the ill-compared race. However, the longer AMRS depends on oil money (through convertible notes), the more of the company they'll have to give away to the oil giant. I hope for investors sake that they can ramp up as effectively and efficiently as they can.

    Kevin
    Jan 12, 2014. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Interesting take. It is worth mentioning that there are natural strains of heterotrophic algae though. SZYM just took a high-yielding strain & learned what makes it tick sort of speak.
    Jan 8, 2014. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermolecular: Seeking A Win-Win In Intellectual Property Development [View article]
    Packur,

    While the stock's going down, any bearish sentiment is clearly taken as gospel. That said, we have yet to see the royalty impact for the majority of the ongoing CDP's which takes years before products reach commercialization. Investors may fail to understand this company now, but I think the next few years will be interesting. There's no cash need for the company as the CDP's are by & large keeping the company cash flow positive. The royalties will begin to pick up this year.

    "Huge insider selling?" Maybe from Tony Chiang, although its essentially padded compensation derived from exercised options. Technically his position hasn't changed. Considering the unsold Dec 18 option exercise, he's actually increased his position from a base holding of 76,775 shares to 262,015 shares.

    As for Lazovsky, I hardly call a monthly 38500 shares off of a 3 million shares position "huge insider selling". Especially when its being reported under a Rule10b5-1 plan where automatic sales were made well in advance for the very purpose of denying a timed opportunity. Like Chiang, this is just padded compensation & diversification rather than a true lack of confidence.

    Dead for some time? Maybe, but I feel pretty comfortable averaging in and plan to do so myself. Just my two cents that you probably don't care for much. There's a difference between market sentiment and tangible company progress.

    I would like to know more about the details pertaining to FSLR concerning the reduced royalties/services, as this is the only downside news really out there. But hey, even FSLR is but one partner out of many. Nothing is perfect and partnerships will hit some bumps. Thats why multiple rounds in the chamber is important. Bear in mind that IMI has multiple partners and a business model that continues to foster ongoing cooperation.

    Kevin
    Jan 8, 2014. 10:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    The fool tends to think big picture, which I like to see. But it did seem like he errantly connected GMO foods to synthetic biology, which we already discussed above. I thought that article had limited relational correlation as well.

    - AMRS & SZYM share a somewhat similar process (albeit very distinct technologies).
    - SZYM & XON both have food products.

    At best, AMRS does flavours.... which hardly qualifies as food IMO. But try finding a way to bring all three together (apart from the fact that genes were involved somewhere), and it seemed like a bit of a stretch. One of these companies was added in for no reason.
    Jan 6, 2014. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris: Can This Industrial Biotechnology Pioneer Still Thrive? [View article]
    Bill,
    Again, while i wish the best for the industry and therefore would like for Gevo to suceed, the company is in no better condition than AMRS. I would even argue that Gevo is in more dire straits from an investor standpoint as the company is out of cash and will have a difficult time raising more. AMRS and SZYM have already conducted similar testing with the military branches. Gevos supply contracts (including the meager 20k gallon agreement) are not going to be its salvation if it is unable to uplift the value of its product. For each if these companies fuels has always been the most capital intensive and lowest returning business. Gevo needs to get into specialty chemicals fast if its going to endure. Beware of dilution at this point. Its disappointing that gevo was comfortable diluting shareholders below $1.5. I wish them a speedy recovery but the lack of cash has become the destroyer of lucrative returns for the company.

    Kevin
    Jan 6, 2014. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris: Can This Industrial Biotechnology Pioneer Still Thrive? [View article]
    chudzikb,

    To be fair, I think the momentum really began after the October financing with Maxwell & Total. The actual implementation of a long-talked about JV w/ Total (refer back to Nov 2011) helped to further solidify the impression that Total was 100% committed to helping AMRS succeed. Add on the low daily volume and the large amount of days to cover (http://bit.ly/1f6V7Q7) for the short interest, and this was likely more of a short squeeze than anything else. For the sake of the industry, I do hope that AMRS can capitalize upon this momentum. I may be doubtful in the short-term, but I do wish AMRS the best.

    Kevin
    Jan 5, 2014. 08:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Probably not any safer. But what's needed is pipelines in that region of the world. What would make Soladiesel safer is that you can theoretically grow the oil for refinement closer to the refinery which would reduce transport distances/costs. SZYM's oils can be pipelined as well like regular oil, unlike say ethanol....
    Jan 4, 2014. 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Apologies, sddd. I just realized that I echoed what you said. But how's that for reiteration? =)
    Dec 31, 2013. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    "prohibitively high cost" ?

    I'm curious what math you used to determine what these costs were? Based on my research, the costs seem to be in line with expected gross margins once you apply the 3:1 ratio already stated in the filings. Additionally, there are more opportunities for lower feedstock in the near future - both from a technology standpoint (ie cellulosics / glycerol / supercritical water/ cyanobacteria) and from traditional sources (sugarcane abundance + corn ethanol cut)

    As a matter of fact, the math suggests profitability upon ramping up the first facility (although szym will likely throw that cash right back into capacity expansion... hence the cash flow positive statement). Heck, if you want to be very technical about it... Peoria already appears to be profitable.
    Dec 31, 2013. 07:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Sorry, the link didn't paste correctly earlier. Here's the link regarding the non-gmo nature of szym oils:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 31, 2013. 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Dbmartin,

    From what I understand, everything that was non gmo in terms of algal strains was a part of what was included in SRN. However in an article elsewhere dillon explained that even tailored oils will still classify as non gmo as none of the proteins made from the dna will be in the end product. He made a comparison to how cheese is made today.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Kevin
    Dec 31, 2013. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme: Multi-Bagger Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Nice overview and emphasis on the unique capabilities of szyms products. Interesting take on expectations. Not sure if 50% allocation is truly representative that many years out. Also not sure about the rate of capcity addition. Seems slow considering initial projection was for 500k mt by 2015ye. Well see. Fully agree with the conclusion nonetheless.
    Dec 31, 2013. 02:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Solazyme, It Is All About Control [View article]
    DMMEXMD,

    I agree with your conclusions on SZYM, particularly on the part of ongoing improvements to the economics to come. At least in my mind, SZYM is undoubtedly the best "horse in the race" when it comes to public industrial biotech companies. The company's flexibility has been its strength to date... a feature that has only been compounded by its leading capital position and partnership know-how. Best wishes to you.

    Kevin
    Dec 26, 2013. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Solazyme, It Is All About Control [View article]
    Sorry, I do not know. It might be dependent on the facility as well.
    Dec 25, 2013. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Solazyme, It Is All About Control [View article]
    D'ster,

    While Proterro is a name to bear in mind, I still find it much too early to even consider the company as a factor at all. It will probably be worth revisiting in the next few years. Even then, perhaps it is best to view them as a way to recycle sugar rather than to establishing a full plant on their technology alone. Consider it as sugar cogeneration. Capturing the CO2 from the mill to make industrial sugars sound like the most ideal situation.

    As for the cost of feedstock, the current trend is downward - whether it is corn or sugar. Margins remain the last objective to prove. However, considering the ratio of sugar to oil that has been suggested by the company (and will of course need to be scaled up to), I personally feel confident that some of the oil produced by SZYM can be made at the $1500/MT level upon hitting nameplate capacity. Depending on the additional unknown factors of discounted feedstock and premiums to ASP's, the target margins could considerably improve. I find the company's gross margin guidance to be within reason (>30% fuel/chem, >40% nutrition, >60% personal care)

    Kevin
    Dec 24, 2013. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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