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  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Help me with this. When are you going to read the context of what I write rather than taking credit for your overall negativity which no one doubts has proven to be more successful than optimism in the near-term?

    "Yet how reliable is this estimate? Chatsko himself admits that he "arbitrarily chose to start at half of the maximum (capacity)." Because Chatsko's model lacks full financial consolidation of the Moema facility, he arrives at an ASP calculation of $2,713/MT. This figure is based off of $172 million in analyst revenue estimates for 2014. While he generously set aside $60 million for current production growth, he errantly used a 15-month capacity figure of 63,334 MT for the 2014 production calculation."

    You really want to call this an engineering analysis?
    -----------------------

    Here was my response then and my response now:


    "Maxx,

    I am not going to go back and forth with you, so this will be my only statement to you. Let us be clear about what has occurred here.

    By ignoring the fact that analysts had fully consolidated their revenue estimates, you unfairly held their numbers accountable to almost half of the production the analysts were using. You ignore that all of the revenue is accounted for, not just SZYM's share according to full consolidation as guided by management. This practically doubles the supposed ASPs that SZYM would need to support in order to meet analyst estimates. The only bad numbers being thrown around were your own. Rather than comparing apples to apples, you threw in an orange in order to carelessly throw out the word "doom."

    To testify to these bad numbers was the additional fact that you inexplicably used 15 months of production in order to compare against a 12-month revenue estimate in order to come up with a target ASP supposedly covering 12 months. While using non-consolidated estimates nearly doubled the ASP figures without justification, the latter brought it down. What resulted from all this was a target ASP on the high side to back up your argument that szym may be "doomed" by supposed analyst optimism.

    Yet your opinion can only be supported if you ignore the standard that everyone else was using to begin with.

    What I find most perplexing is that you now criticize my scale-up rate for being too high. Ironically, while I only expect 75,000 MT (62.5%) of capacity in 2014, your tables suggest that you expect 99,700 MT (83%) of capacity to be utilized when you add back in Bunge’s share of the production. In fact, by using your higher capacity utilization figure your article would really be suggesting that analysts are only expecting target ASP’s of $1725 per MT. Clearly though, you can't print such figures. To do so would fly against the very purpose of your article, and I haven't seen a correction yet.

    I welcome your supposedly cautious articles when they're embedded in truth. But this one was not. I have nothing else to say that hasn’t already been said.

    Best regards to you as well,
    Kevin"
    Mar 13, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Production costs are too high to be profitable in the present, but this is far from suggesting they are too high in the future based on an evolving manufacturing situation.

    How you just made another assumption that such a production cost deficiency can not be controlled by mechanical solutions and rather supposed that they're based on failing microbial metrics is beyond me.

    Kevin
    The writer who comments on his own articles rather than constantly advertising another affiliation.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    josephml11,

    As a risk factor, I would also like to understand the depth and nature of the risk. But we also can't presume (as Maxx has) that there is an issue at all pertaining to the biology given that the risk factor is pertaining to overall cost production of microalgae at a large scale. Here is the actual title of his referenced risk on the filed 10-K (which implies a large variety factors to the overall picture of producing at a large scale - not some limited perspective on failing microbes):

    -The successful development of our business depends on our ability to efficiently and cost-effectively produce microalgae-based products at
    large commercial scale.

    ----------------------

    I fully support due diligence, but am vehemently opposed to mindless speculation being declared as fact. I have no problems with opinions, but when someone comes here to citing alleged shocking revelations derived out of something far less explicit, I can only shake my head.

    The only fact that is here is that the company's target cost structure has not yet been met as one would expect from a process that is not yet profitable in the majority of its product lines or fully ramped at its major manufacturing facilities.

    If given the chance, it is wise to inquire management further as to the possible factors that contribute to this situation. But with the given information at hand, it would also be far more prudent for people to be less accusatory into making additional presumptions without also taking into consideration the explicitly mentioned issues and situations being stated by the company itself.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Maxx,

    "The fact that microbes are not reaching yields, productivities, and titers needed for commercial scale economies is a technology problem, not a problem affected by the pace of ramp or inconsistent utilities."
    --------

    How anyone comes to this conclusion from the stated risk factor supposedly without applying their own negatively-angled presumptions is beyond me.

    1) What fact? The statement gives a broad example of how the term "productivity" can be used, suggesting its broad implication of many examples in its given context. Yet only you believes that it can ONLY be in reference to microbial productivity (a term never used at all... anywhere in the stated risk factors).
    2) How do you know their current yields, productivities, or titers are deviating from where they are expected to be at this point in time along the expected ramp?
    3) What technology problem are you referring to? The company has always maintained there is no technology problem. There is an infrastructure problem and a delayed ramp.
    4) Why would anyone eliminate the pace of a ramp or the inconsistency of utilities based on a risk factor that is talking about conversion yields & productivity in the context of a ramping plant environment?

    For someone who claims they're merely trying to raise awareness, I think it's clear that is not the case. Your statement is clearly suggestive of an intention to negatively influence an audience based on a rather neutral risk factor that merely states that the company's target cost structure has not been accomplished to date.

    No one is denying that strain improvement is ongoing and will probably continue to be ongoing even after meeting those targets. But to suggest this is a hindering problem is dramatically stretching what is actually being stated. I for one am questioning why it is that you feel so obliged to suggest the company is facing some kind of technology failure on the basis of a broad risk factor.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Correction: mid-2013.
    Mar 10, 2015. 10:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    First insider purchase since 2012 from one of our largest shareholders. Monster scared him into buying.
    Mar 10, 2015. 08:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Some have critiqued that im blaming investors for Solazymes valuation, but ive only stated a lack of understanding. Per a recent conference with wolfson as a keynote speaker, it seems like he recognizes the same dilemma:

    "If you look at the Internet, mobile applications, or even computer hardware, there are investor communities that built up over time in each of these areas, and an investor community that built up around medical biotechnology.

    The space that I’m in doesn’t really have that core, investor community yet. It doesn’t have that model of how businesses are valued the same way either. That timeline and scale-up, for us, is different."

    -j.wolfson

    http://bit.ly/1BqC2Ai
    Mar 9, 2015. 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Naa spam, thank you for articulating that in a much more precise and communicable manner than I was able to do.
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Only you, all-star bioprocess engineer maxx chatsko of the Motley Fool. Only you would exclude the known mechanical issues from a yield and productivity risk factor blanket statement in order to create a more flavorful assertion about potential bioprocess shortcomings, which you call a "fact". I truly mean only you. I stopped reading your articles a while ago and really have no clue why you consistently argue on mine. Take the soap box again, maxx.
    Mar 9, 2015. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    I don't know what to tell you, Maxx. Nowhere does it say "microbial productivity" or "microbial yield"

    The risk factor clearly says:

    "Two of the significant drivers of our production costs are the level of productivity and conversion yield of our microalgae strains..."

    I'm growing tired going back and forth over issues you want to introduce. It's a blanket statement risk factor that includes a multitude of variabilities (including poor performing microbes as you suggested or poorly run operations). But only you, bioprocess engineer Maxx Chatsko of the Motley Fool, are pressing that it has to be one particular factor with one particular solution that summarizes everything to make it all "pretty simple right now".
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Hello Maxx Chatsko of The Motley Fool,

    "For example, with respect to oil, productivity is principally a function of the amount of oil that can be obtained from a given volume over a particular time period. Conversion yield refers to the amount of the desired oil that can be produced from a fixed amount of feedstock."

    Based on the cited definition & example, both productivity and conversion yields can be affected by inefficient utilities, non-optimized downstream equipment, or a non-fully ramped-up production plant. They can also be affected by other things as well (including failing microbes as you personally believe).

    For example, the amount of oil obtained from a given volume over a given amount of time can be dependent upon how well your oil press is working. And in case it wasn't clear, productivity is a contributing factor for conversion yield.
    -----

    That said, you might want to be careful about creating new "facts."

    Writing your opinions are great, but to state the existence of failing microbes as a "fact" is a presumption based on your own negative bias of what you want to believe rather than what the company is asserting. We're all entitled to our opinions, but I would be careful about calling something like that a "fact."

    Kevin
    Mar 9, 2015. 01:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Well said, Steve. I appreciate your opinions on the matter.
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Dave,

    I wouldn't imagine that you'll see branded algal flour on the store shelves anytime soon. I believe the company would rather leverage the distributing networks of partner companies for some time (65 active projects and aggressively growing isn't small potatoes). Why introduce the risk of building your own brand when companies are willing to use your product and take on that risk themselves? At least for now when your capital is tight and workforce already thinned out.

    Kevin
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Mykie,
    It is currently only in the creamers which were recently launched. The milks been around for some time now and already had traction.
    -Kevin
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    User13604742,

    Appreciate the comment. It is indeed Royce, but I believe it to be more of the hallway than the porch perse. Took the pic some many years ago.

    Kevin
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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