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Kevin Quon

 
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  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    Triptolemus,

    You demand quite a bit from every article. This article's purpose was not to talk about costs as I've talked about this in past articles. It takes 3 MT of sugars to make 1 MT of oil. The company is getting sugars (possibly lower-cost sugar juice) at lower than market price & already has provisions in place to cover swings in sugar costs. Consdering the target ASP's it is clear that the model will be profitable once the plants are at nameplate capacity. The development of lower-cost, next-gen sugars should be able to significantly reduce costs further.

    Kevin

    P.S. I'm not here to debate, argue, or be criticized as your other comment on my other article suggests you are looking to do. So this will be my only reply.
    Jun 4 02:27 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    Run Rickey,

    Some of the latest target ASPs were snagged by this guy on Twitter (they were taken from the GS roadshow presentation back in March which is no longer available):
    http://bit.ly/1jPGY5L
    http://bit.ly/1gXRBU8

    You can also scan through the company's PDF presentations for some additional information. I tend to just save them as they get taken down over a year or so. On a side note, it's interesting to see that some of the ASP's appear to have crept up a little bit (ie. High oleics have gone from $1800-$3000 for Q4 2012 to $2000-3000+ per the image linked above).

    The mix of product is anyone's guess, but the rapid production of Encapso right out of the gate for Moema should be suggestive as to what they'll likely to trying to focus on in the near-term (....especially since that's probably not selling in Latin America yet and likely has to be shipped up to North America). All we know is that 2 types of oleics (likely high oleic & HSHO), 1 mid-chain & Encapso is being produced right now out of Clinton.

    I don't know how many batches fail to meet end point, but from what I understand they have not ever seen contamination to be a hindering issue. Per my last visit, this isn't to say they've never had contamination (as merely touching the side of the tank will do that), but that the company hasn't had any reason to view it as a potential issue. Even if a run needed to be stopped early, they typically still get oil (ie. like 70% of what was expected). Consistency of product output has also not been an issue.

    Kevin


    Jun 3 10:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    Kitesurfer1962,

    Quite honestly, profitability isn't a metric you want to be using. Becoming cash flow positive is more ideal because it is highly likely that the company will continue to pour cash into expanding manufacturing capacity (think Amazon's lack of profitability as the company consistently invested into ramping up revenue).

    That said, these two plants should suffice. As a matter of fact, Moema itself should suffice. Clinton should help to also serve as some insurance (or redundancy) in order to guarantee that orders get filled but it too will be the most ideal spot for expansion.

    The time frame to nameplate is 12-18 months for each facility although it sounds like this is a conservative estimate on the company's part. From everything that's transpired thus far, it sounds like Clinton might be able to do more of the 12-month time frame whereas I'd expect more of the 18 months for Moema. Therefore I'd expect mid-to-late 2015 to be the time we become cash flow positive. Considering the rather high ASP's for AlgaVia ($8000-12000+ per MT), I am curious if the company can bring that timeframe forward though. The same goes for Encapso. Time will tell.

    Kevin
    Jun 2 10:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Solazyme's High-Oleic Oils Are Needed Now [View article]
    Re-evaluate "professional and reasonable."


    http://seekingalpha.co...

    "Kevin,

    Thanks for the clarification. I don't see why I cannot comment here if I do so in a professional and reasonable manner.

    Maxx Chatsko"
    Jun 2 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    u1tnt,

    I'm not sure if that information has been disclosed. If you find out, I'm curious. But when they produce and when they don't is really starting to micromanage an investment from an investors point of view. Nameplate capacity represents the full year's production after all.

    Kevin
    Jun 1 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    For those who want to read into it:

    When I visited the company HQ the first time in March 2012 (http://bit.ly/IcSBpT) there were approximately 300 subscribers following Solazyme on SA.

    Today (June 2014), there are now 5623 subscribers to the ticker. I believe this is highly reflective of the increasing interest in the company. I extend my best wishes to those who have come to follow Solazyme.

    SA Ticker Page:
    http://bit.ly/1kyKe5z
    Jun 1 10:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    Hi User22517621,

    Honestly, I still have a hard time believing that they will be bought out. The company's model suggests that any potential buyer would have to be very comfortable getting into multiple industries with multiple partners (some of which may be competitors). Additionally, it takes two to tango and I believe the SZYM board knows they have a hit on their hands that hasn't been given the chance to shine yet - especially when you consider the surface has just been scratched in terms of product applications. Just my two cents. Thanks for following by the way.

    Kevin
    Jun 1 10:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    You might want to reread that. Ecover is with SZYM.
    Jun 1 06:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    Yahoo has a formula that tends to remove articles that don't have the stock's name in the title. I wouldn't read into it.
    Jun 1 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    N808,

    I believe there will be an announcement for the expansion, but I am not aware of when it will happen. I believe a market correction will not help SZYM as it tends to be a volatile stock. However, a 40% correction over 3 months is a bit extreme. Especially considering the price support built in due to the financing done at $11 & $13.2 (convertible). It really depends on how many additional short sellers want to tap on if you ask me. Most people here are in it for the long-run. I find a run past $9 will be difficult considering that the reasons (delay of Moema) the stocks even traded down that low have now been taken care of. I'll admit that I would be surprised if we broke lower, but anything's possible (and naturally it depends on how large of a market correction we're talking about).

    Kevin
    Jun 1 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Successful Moema Launch Means For Solazyme [View article]
    sdkcat,

    Government revenue has declined to $0.2 milion over 2013 from $14.4 in 2012. (http://bit.ly/1kYPwMv)

    The company isn't dependent on government revenue right now as it'll largely be focused on non-biofuel related markets. However, it will also be producing biofuels to further develop those markets and as such it will (in all likeliness) incidentally be gaining from such subsidies when it does.

    The same goes with financing. Conventional financing is great but if BNDES wants to offer better terms to support green projects, sb jv isn't going to say no.

    To be blunt, is it dependent on government? No.
    Will it gain from government? Yes.

    Kevin
    Jun 1 01:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Solazyme's High-Oleic Oils Are Needed Now [View article]
    Ridiculous paranoia by little people wanting to fight. They'd have a better argument if the genetically modified protein ended up in the product and we ingested it, but it doesn't and we don't. So until then, hollow arguments based on a hollow concern based off an unrelated & unproven concern between GMO & the foods that we intake. Shame on the NYT was making it sound like a conspiracy was about.
    May 31 02:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marrone Bio Innovations: A Small Bio-Based Pest Management Company With Strong Growth Ahead [View article]
    Rick Berger,

    Sorry. Editors made me re-write this article which delayed it a day. The market capitalization/closing price got mixed up in the latest price action and recent volatility due to my oversight in that fix. Stick with the numbers from yahoo that you quoted.

    Kevin
    May 31 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Solazyme's High-Oleic Oils Are Needed Now [View article]
    Toasty54,

    1 - I need to work on that. But it would help if the other party stopped commenting on my articles to stir up the hornets nest. Thank you for the civil reminder.

    Kevin
    May 31 03:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Solazyme's High-Oleic Oils Are Needed Now [View article]
    Maxx,

    Get over yourself. If you're not willing to take the criticism, don't write controversial statements. After all, it was only YOU who suggested that SG could creep up on SZYM's cocoa butter & high oleic oils. Care to show some proof of that solid fact-based insinuation of yours?

    Suggesting that some competition is looming and then blanketing your whole article with a vague thought that "SGI was far behind" is far from being careful - it's just an unfounded claim made by an overly ambitious speculator. Bravo, Mr. Objective. I'm not sure if anyone could have distanced himself from his own claims in the same article as well as you did right there. Was there even a reason to write that article if you're not going to stand by your own argument that SGI could be a competitor?

    By the way, I find it strange how you neglected to mention that algal-based omega3 DHA has been around so long that it's now off patent protection. You could have mentioned that algal-derived omega-3's has been commoditized (much in part due to SGI's CTO James Flatt when he worked for Martek). But instead, what do you do? You hype up the possibilities by making it sound like this new deal with ADM is a shot at true innovation in food ingredients.
    ------------------

    Temper tantrums? Let's be clear, if I'm showing frustration it's with you - not the companies. You're the one attacking me on other articles (http://seekingalpha.co...). Even now, you're the one writing on my article, what are you even doing here? Why you find the need to consistently come onto my articles to argue is beyond me as I am making no attempt to reach out to you.

    Also, we know you work for the Fool. You can stop advertising it on the bottom of every comment.

    Kevin
    May 31 03:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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