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Kevin Quon

 
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  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Nice exercise of the mind, Geosteam. I very much agree with this statement:

    "The point is not that Solazyme will get this amount, they won’t. The point is that there are a lot of specialty oils out there and Solazyme claims it can address many of them, at a price that will make Solazyme a lot of money."
    May 24 01:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Geosteam,

    Nice find, but one caution I'd remind you about is that Grainger sells on the retail trade level. They also have a large premium attached to their goods. For another company I once saw that Grainger sold 5 gallons of liquid insulation for $200-300 even though the company I was watching was selling it for $70 direct-to-customer on their website. Just FYI.

    Also, at $205, 1 MT of oil would be selling for about $10,000-$12,000, and that seems a bit high considering the roughly $2,000-$3000 range initially targeted by the company.

    Kevin
    May 23 04:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Mykie,

    There's probably an element of that, but only a little over 5 million shares were immediately added. Even then it was done at $11/sh. At this point it's also taken into account with the market capitalization. Also, consider that an additional $130 million was raised without any immediate dilutive effect (convertible notes). These notes will eventually dilute at $13.20/share, a price almost 40% higher than the last closing price.

    So all said, the company raised quite a bit of cash at a much higher price than the present. The recent drop is due to the Moema delay. Is it justified? Depends on how bad the problem actually is. I believe we're oversold.

    Kevin
    May 22 09:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Source link on targeted AlgaVia market size & margins: http://bit.ly/1gXRBU8
    May 18 10:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Cabeza,

    I'm not in a position to advise anyone on electrical matters. Likewise, if the company says it has implemented "near-term fixes", I'm sure they have quite a few ideas of their own. Based on the numerous people I've talked with, I can tell their experience don't need little old me passing ideas around either. Additionally, the company actually never stated that they installed a backup generator as a result of this issue (although it's reasonable to presume that this might be what a "near-term fix" includes).

    The problem about talking about this issue so much is that we're starting to magnify it in scale more than it likely is. The company has stated at least twice now that this issue has had little to no impact on the ultimate timeline for Moema's ramp and that near-term fixes have either been implemented or are underway.

    Right now is the time to just be patient (or for a person to sell out altogether if it really bothers them). We'll find out the results soon enough.

    Kevin
    May 18 03:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    "2) Facility was originally designed and engineered to process 100k liters at a time, not 625k"

    I'm not sure if I understand what you are talking about. Just to make sure there is no confusion, the typical plant requires several levels of tanks. For Moema, there are the 125k-liter tanks which ultimately feed into the 625k-liter tanks. Presumably, there is some similar feeder system going on over @ Clinton too. All said, it is not that the plant was originally designed to process the lighter load, it was just that the lighter load was all that was operational at the time. These large 625k tanks have always been the goal, and they appear to be working (which is an under-celebrated success in itself).

    As for what happened with the power, I don't know, but I can also fully understand it from management's point of view. Bunge's new cogen facility isn't working as consistently as anticipated. Makes sense. If SZYM needs a 12-18 month ramp up phase for its plant, I'd imagine a large piece of infrastructure like a cogen plant would need a similar time period to reliably run. Frustrations run high, and of course I too am frustrated. But the bigger picture has always been all that matters for me. And that is still very much intact.

    Kevin
    May 17 01:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    futuretrade,

    Skim through the comments above. Cogeneration plants @ sugar mills = burn sugar cane leftover (bagasse) & sell to the grid. Sounds like BG isn't hooked up to the grid @ moema, but has long-term plans to do so. In mean time, back up has been put in place to reduce blackouts to brown out situations. Additional quote from my visit I showed above suggests that brown outs should be ok for normal production thanks to robustness of tech.

    But all said, yes. Investors want to know more, as is always the case. I do too of course.

    Kevin
    May 17 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    "I did a little math and found that 13.8 grams per day was equivalent to 4.75 kg per year per person, which for the US population of 317 million, would require 1.6 million metric tons per year. At an ASP of $2,000 per MT the annual revenues would be $3.2 billion."

    Although this is all theoretical anyways, I just want to remind you that the flours sell for much more than $2000/MT. In the GS roadshow presentation (now taken down), SZYM noted that AlgaVia whole algal flour would be selling for $8,000/MT-$12,000/MT + (note the plus). Est Mkt size = $100B. AlgaVia Whole Algal Proteing has a target ASP range of $6,000 - $8,000+ (mkt size $28B)
    May 17 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Hi Jeremy73,

    I have yet to come across that particular application in any of the patent filings (maybe someone else knows more?), but if it's oil-based product SZYM can probably address such a consumer market one day if the economics were viable. Right now though there is a much heavier emphasis on improving the value of the oils/products of today more so than merely mimicking whats in existence.

    Much of the demand for new products are being driven by partnering companies. After all, they are the ones who will largely be handling the formulation work when it comes to new products. Much of what's on the agenda may be dependent on who's wanting what. If anything though, your thoughts do reflect just how large the oil markets really are and how diverse the range of application is. It is why oils continue to grow in demand.... because we even willing to smear it on our car seats!

    Kevin
    May 16 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Fair enough. If only you stated all of that as directly as you did right there.
    May 16 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Maxx,

    I wasn't the one who brought up your article, nor was I accusing you in that comment above of fear mongering. But regardless of your intentions (which I don't doubt are good in your eyes), it has stirred up fear, and you are the one who considered this yet-to-be released article as "bad news" while addressing an investing audience.

    As I've stated to you before, people come asking me about some of the things you say and I would rather not have to deal with that. So don't mind me if there was some irritation in what I wrote above. It was meant to be there since I don't believe this upcoming article will be a big issue, and because I personally believe that you should have waited until it first comes out and proves itself to be bad news before suggesting that it is.

    As for SBO, you might be correct and I may be presumptuous on that timeline. The consolidation will occur as key milestones are reached in the JV. Thank you for the correction if indeed it is as you say.

    Kevin
    May 16 02:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    I get what you mean, but remember that the markets are much too big to be wishing that upon any company in our space. Personally, I actually think their rapid development only helps us all in terms of stabilizing the growing industry. Unfortunately, I don't believe they are developing as fast as we'd like.
    May 16 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    RWRATTI,

    I have followed LS9's technology for some time and like its very long-term prospects. But it still has quite a ways to go (and a lot of growing pains) before it can produce on the level that SZYM is now.... even as partially shown in the graphs provided. To make a comparison between the two companies suggests that the two are on level playing fields. They are not.

    Disclosure: I am long REGI, but more so because of the undervalued infrastructure already owned.
    May 16 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    Yiyi, my prediction wouldn't be any better. Considering near-term power solutions have been put in place I would expect management's thoughts on commercial product by Q2 to be correct.
    May 16 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Solazyme Is Pursuing AlgaVia & Encapso Now [View article]
    wfc4b,

    If that is a pretty big concern for you, you should probably stay away from this company.

    However, to me, it looks like normal diversification considering the limited size & automatic nature of the transactions. And some of the sales were done to offset tax purposes according to the filings themselves. More shares are often granted to these insiders over time as part of incentive programs.

    Kevin
    May 16 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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