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Kevin Scott

 
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  • What The Options Market Is Predicting For Apple Earnings [View article]
    The option market is so smart :) Options predicted $33.85 and stock down ~$32 after earnings and we still have a couple more days till expiration
    Jul 24 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Options Market Is Predicting For Apple Earnings [View article]
    You mean you bought all those strikes? If so, that is a strangle not straddle. A strangle is when you buy both put and calls that are out of the money. (straddle is buying put and call both at same strike)
    Jul 24 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Options Market Is Predicting For Apple Earnings [View article]
    Buy the straddle. If it only costs you a total of $33 and the stock moves up or down over $33 generally make money.
    Jul 24 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From Volatility Ahead Of Apple's Earnings [View article]
    I'm assuming these are calls. The VEGA on your weekly 615 call is 0.24 and on your Aug 615 is 0.62. This means that the Aug call will fluctuate more when volatility changes.

    This means the Aug call will lose much more value than the weekly after the volatility crush tomorrow.
    Jul 24 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Strategies For Betting On Interest Rate Moves [View article]
    BIG typo in your article! halfway down "The value of the bonds will increase dramatically when rates rise." :)
    Jul 23 09:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Options Market Is Predicting For Apple Earnings [View article]
    This was written and submitted to SA over the weekend, so unfortunately the price quotes are a bit out of date but the general number range and concepts are the same.
    Jul 23 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Options Market Is Predicting For Apple Earnings [View article]
    I took into account the call and put prices relative to the strike and current price with the 'Movement Predicted' number. That number eliminates the intrinsic value of the put and the time value of the call that is in excess of 605.

    By eliminating those numbers we can compare the call and put as apples to apples and derive our conclusion that the call has a higher extrinsic value.
    Jul 23 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Options Market Is Predicting For Apple Earnings [View article]
    The price of a straddle is widely accepted as a calculation of an implied move, both in dollar and percent terms.
    Jul 23 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Against Doubling Your Dividend [View article]
    I agree with your tactics Dr Fred. Good strategy.
    Jul 6 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Against Doubling Your Dividend [View article]
    The strike you choose really depends on your expectation for the stock price. The lower the strike (closer to stock price), the more premium you'll get paid, but the less upside capital gain potential you have. The higher the premium, the more upside you leave available but the less premium you receive. My suggestion is to choose the strike 5-15% higher then the stock price, with the exact strike chosen based on your market forecast.
    Jul 6 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Against Doubling Your Dividend [View article]
    Great points, Mark. Out of curiosity, did your back testing include tax effects of regular rebalancing/being assigned as compared to buy & hold? The taxes are an important part of that equation.
    Jul 5 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Options To Go Long Apple Earnings And Earn 43% Return With Controlled Risk [View article]
    I agree with you about the necessity of a stop-loss. But what do you mean about not needing to commit capital in real dollars?
    Jul 5 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Against Doubling Your Dividend [View article]
    Auntie theta, aka time decay, is the option writer's best friend
    Jul 5 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Options To Go Long Apple Earnings And Earn 43% Return With Controlled Risk [View article]
    You make a good point. It's certainly true that owning Apple outright is a much simpler non-option way to get exposure to the stock price. However, I would disagree that it is low risk, at least when compared to alternatives using options. With owning the stock outright, you have unlimited risk to the downside (until stock price = $0).

    For example, if you own 100 shares of Apple you theoretically have ~$61,200 at risk. If you were to get long a bull call spread like this article discusses, you only have $700 at risk. This comes at the cost of capping your upside potential as well.

    Of course you won't actually lose $61k but it is prudent to be aware there is more risk and more reward to owning the stock with no hedges than owning an option spread.
    Jul 5 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings? Don't Ask The Pros - Look In The Rear View Mirror [View article]
    It's always funny to see analyst predictions for Apple earnings. The market knows this as well.. if Apple only barely beats, the stock would crash.

    Here's a couple ideas of how to trade the earnings
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 5 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
37 Comments
12 Likes