Are We Pre-Trading A Dovish Announcement From Bernanke? [View article]
Very interesting summary. I think presently the Fed would most likely prefer to err, if it's going to err, on the side of asset inflation. So your continued dovish take is likely correct.
10-Year Treasury Bonds An Attractive Buy [View article]
If we can get to the middle of July above 114 on the TLT, that might provide some bullish support going into the second half of the year. A big if... see charts at BONDPIVOTS http://bit.ly/16NQrta
S&P 500 Snapshot: Fractional Gain To A New High [View article]
For some short-term technical perspective, and trading setup information for today's Fed announcement, see charts containing a monthly and quarterly cyclical analysis at http://bit.ly/18hApps
The Fed To Trigger A Large Correction? Profit On The Panic [View article]
Check out the following website for an advanced straddling technique particularly suited for a day like tomorrow: The OTAPS Straddle, at http://bit.ly/M9nyNl
The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
Excellent comment, DT. And cost structures can often be as variable as subject output market prices. Additionally, they are often not completely independent of output price either, as pass-through ripples and effects occur and take hold. Yours is fuller economic awareness, DT.
However, the information compilation in the article is very good information; albeit, the conclusion and investor takeaway perhaps a bit overreaching...
The Myth Of Liquidity And Bubbles In Financial Markets [View article]
Excellent article. And a very very interesting comment. To what degree is illusion utilized to help manage stability and to help encourage progress? And does it really ever work?
While pondering this, I would 'keep on my life buoy' and 'float-up in the aggregate market ascension' while the 'floodgates are wide open' and the 'water is pouring in.' It's hard to anticipate where the new equilibrium will be, and begging the question is as 50/50 as anything. And keep up with the employment of upwardly adjusted stops, and even more nimbly, updated advanced straddles, to catch some real downside too, if it does happen come. And keep with the science and the discipline, and certainly "Don't Fight the Fed."
We have seen run-ups in the equities market do to liquidity and speculation before...see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often surprises many to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle). Especially from its FALL SEASON, often advancing well into the following year, and sometimes beyond... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may currently be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
Someone may complain about "systemic liquidity levels," but while the floodgates are open and the water is pouring in I'd 'keep on my life buoy' and float-up in the aggregate ascension. It's hard to anticipate where the new equilibrium will be, and begging the question is as 50/50 as anything. Keep up with employing upwardly adjusted stops. And keep with the science and the discipline, and certainly "Don't Fight the Fed."
We have seen run-ups in the equities market do to liquidity and speculation before...see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often surprises many to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle). Especially from its FALL SEASON, often advancing well into the following year, and sometimes beyond... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may currently be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
Market Rally A Function Of Liquidity And Speculation [View article]
Thank you for your article, analysis, perspective. We have seen run-ups in the equities market do to liquidity and speculation before...see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often surprises many to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle). Especially from its FALL SEASON, often advancing well into the following year, and sometimes beyond... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may currently be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
S&P 500 Would Not Be Overextended At 1800 This Year-End [View article]
Good article. Interesting commentary and analysis. Hope the community is reading...
For another glimpse at how far the stock market can go on the upside, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS OR SPYPIVOTS...
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
U.S. Economy In March - Spring Swoon Has Arrived [View article]
Very interesting article. And interesting perspectives. Thanks especially for sharing your position recommendations...
For a glimpse at how far the stock market can go on the upside, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS... http://bit.ly/17YUwZe. Or search "CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance. Some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right. But, "Don't Fight The Fed"... http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
I would also call attention to a potential head and shoulders pattern that could be forming in the TLT on a daily Presidential Cycle time span (4-year) perspective. The 2-year Congressional Cycle echo looks fairly good however, so I'd just keep a close and nimble watch this next month... See charts http://bit.ly/17ONlCQ and http://bit.ly/127Vmix at BONDPIVOTS.
Reviewing this work, I'll be a little more comfortable if the TLT holds up into the second week of June.
We may also have a bit further yet to go on the upside in the Dollar from a technical standpoint as well... which may only support stocks. For an additional view of the dollar from the perspective of the UUP and EchoVector Analysis, see DOLLARPIVOTS at http://bit.ly/1022zzr
And regarding gold and the GLD, it may be important to note that, Wednesday, May16th, one year ago, was the low in the GLD for 2012. See SA article of late February regarding waiting for a near 'early July 2013' risk-management oriented seasonal gold entry time-point, at http://bit.ly/12hy7D5. Also see GoldPivots' April 1st subsequent technical analysis oriented meltdown in gold 'heads up and alert' at http://bit.ly/16it6Qd. And a current chart of the 2-Year Cycle and 1-Year Cycle EchoVector Pivots in Gold (IAU ETF focus) with short-term trading implications for this month can be found at http://bit.ly/12XJr61. And Yesterday's Chart for the Gold /GC Futures with "GOLD /GC FUTURES 14-MONTH DAILY OHLC CHART QUARTERLY, BI-QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL ECHOVECTORS, COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS, AND ECHOBACKDATES FOR WEDNESDAY 15 MAY 2015: 330 PM EDST at http://bit.ly/10H0usG
And, finally, regarding crude oil, a timely and current chart of the convergence of the 2-year and 1-year EchoVectors in the USO ETF, and this week's early resistance at them highlighted, can be seen at OILPIVOTS at http://bit.ly/10Tvsm9. The 'bear game' in these commodities may just go on a bit longer...
These are our perspectives on the securities you mentioned, and where the swoon may reside, and where it also might not.
Thanks for your article, and for sharing your sector macro perspectives. The charts were very interesting. RECOMMENDED.
Orders For Gold Go Unfilled In Asia [View article]
Ask a farmer what special use gold is to him as a "means of production?" Or to an oil driller or refiner? Or a a hydroelectric plant producer or industrial windmill producer? Or to a nuclear power plant producer or operator? That will ascertain its real value to human energy and tool making and industry...
It's mostly just another currency... and/or a work of art. You cannot plant it, eat it, or directly run a tool or power plant with it, or on it. It's price is completely disproportional its its actual factor input use value.
So expect massive psychologically induced herd-amplified price and 'value' swings from time-to-time...
What Equity Bubble? This Bull Run Has Only Just Begun [View article]
You may be so very right concerning how far this bull has yet to run...
For an additional technical oriented perspective possibly hinting the same, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE"
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
It may be time to leverage up the equity market TO the credit market, to temporarily close the spread there, and to help 'pay back' into the 'borrowing' that is already 'on book' with these soon 'leveraged up units' ...
However, some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
For a glimpse at how far the stock market can go on the upside now, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
Are We Pre-Trading A Dovish Announcement From Bernanke? [View article]
10-Year Treasury Bonds An Attractive Buy [View article]
Thanks for your article.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Fractional Gain To A New High [View article]
Central Bankers' Day [View article]
For an insightful technical analysis chart of the dollar, see the charts at DOLLARPIVOTS http://bit.ly/14QskpG
They DOLLARPIVOTS issued a very timely and prescient alert on the dollar in early May.
Thanks again.
Gold And Silver: Bulls, Bears, And Common Ground [View article]
For an very insightful technical analysis chart of GOLD and the GLD ETF see http://bit.ly/11b7hQ9
Also see the charts published at SA in article http://bit.ly/10TiaBr
The Fed To Trigger A Large Correction? Profit On The Panic [View article]
The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
However, the information compilation in the article is very good information; albeit, the conclusion and investor takeaway perhaps a bit overreaching...
The Myth Of Liquidity And Bubbles In Financial Markets [View article]
While pondering this, I would 'keep on my life buoy' and 'float-up in the aggregate market ascension' while the 'floodgates are wide open' and the 'water is pouring in.' It's hard to anticipate where the new equilibrium will be, and begging the question is as 50/50 as anything. And keep up with the employment of upwardly adjusted stops, and even more nimbly, updated advanced straddles, to catch some real downside too, if it does happen come. And keep with the science and the discipline, and certainly "Don't Fight the Fed."
We have seen run-ups in the equities market do to liquidity and speculation before...see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
http://bit.ly/12jPVx9
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often surprises many to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle). Especially from its FALL SEASON, often advancing well into the following year, and sometimes beyond... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may currently be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
However, again I would caution, "Don't Fight The Fed"... http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
Thanks for the comment. This article is recommended.
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
We have seen run-ups in the equities market do to liquidity and speculation before...see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
http://bit.ly/12jPVx9
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often surprises many to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle). Especially from its FALL SEASON, often advancing well into the following year, and sometimes beyond... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may currently be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
However, again I would caution, "Don't Fight The Fed"... http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
Market Rally A Function Of Liquidity And Speculation [View article]
http://bit.ly/17YUwZe
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often surprises many to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle). Especially from its FALL SEASON, often advancing well into the following year, and sometimes beyond... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may currently be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
However, I would again caution, "Don't Fight The Fed"... http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
Thanks again for your article and analysis.
S&P 500 Would Not Be Overextended At 1800 This Year-End [View article]
For another glimpse at how far the stock market can go on the upside, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS OR SPYPIVOTS...
http://bit.ly/17YUwZe
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
But, "Don't Fight The Fed"... http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
Thanks again for your article and analysis.
U.S. Economy In March - Spring Swoon Has Arrived [View article]
For a glimpse at how far the stock market can go on the upside, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS... http://bit.ly/17YUwZe. Or search
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE."
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance. Some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right. But, "Don't Fight The Fed"... http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
I would also call attention to a potential head and shoulders pattern that could be forming in the TLT on a daily Presidential Cycle time span (4-year) perspective. The 2-year Congressional Cycle echo looks fairly good however, so I'd just keep a close and nimble watch this next month... See charts http://bit.ly/17ONlCQ and http://bit.ly/127Vmix at BONDPIVOTS.
Reviewing this work, I'll be a little more comfortable if the TLT holds up into the second week of June.
We may also have a bit further yet to go on the upside in the Dollar from a technical standpoint as well... which may only support stocks. For an additional view of the dollar from the perspective of the UUP and EchoVector Analysis, see DOLLARPIVOTS at http://bit.ly/1022zzr
And regarding gold and the GLD, it may be important to note that, Wednesday, May16th, one year ago, was the low in the GLD for 2012. See SA article of late February regarding waiting for a near 'early July 2013' risk-management oriented seasonal gold entry time-point, at http://bit.ly/12hy7D5. Also see GoldPivots' April 1st subsequent technical analysis oriented meltdown in gold 'heads up and alert' at http://bit.ly/16it6Qd. And a current chart of the 2-Year Cycle and 1-Year Cycle EchoVector Pivots in Gold (IAU ETF focus) with short-term trading implications for this month can be found at http://bit.ly/12XJr61. And Yesterday's Chart for the Gold /GC Futures with "GOLD /GC FUTURES 14-MONTH DAILY OHLC CHART QUARTERLY, BI-QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL ECHOVECTORS, COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS, AND ECHOBACKDATES FOR WEDNESDAY 15 MAY 2015: 330 PM EDST at http://bit.ly/10H0usG
And, finally, regarding crude oil, a timely and current chart of the convergence of the 2-year and 1-year EchoVectors in the USO ETF, and this week's early resistance at them highlighted, can be seen at OILPIVOTS at http://bit.ly/10Tvsm9. The 'bear game' in these commodities may just go on a bit longer...
These are our perspectives on the securities you mentioned, and where the swoon may reside, and where it also might not.
Thanks for your article, and for sharing your sector macro perspectives. The charts were very interesting. RECOMMENDED.
Orders For Gold Go Unfilled In Asia [View article]
It's mostly just another currency... and/or a work of art. You cannot plant it, eat it, or directly run a tool or power plant with it, or on it. It's price is completely disproportional its its actual factor input use value.
So expect massive psychologically induced herd-amplified price and 'value' swings from time-to-time...
What Equity Bubble? This Bull Run Has Only Just Begun [View article]
For an additional technical oriented perspective possibly hinting the same, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
http://bit.ly/17YUwZe
Or search
"CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE"
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
It may be time to leverage up the equity market TO the credit market, to temporarily close the spread there, and to help 'pay back' into the 'borrowing' that is already 'on book' with these soon 'leveraged up units' ...
However, some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.
But, "Dont' Fight The Fed" ... http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
Time To Show Optimism For Stocks [View article]
Optimism for stocks should have remained strong since last summer. See "Don't Fight the Fed" at
http://bit.ly/18NWPjh
For a glimpse at how far the stock market can go on the upside now, see a vivid chart of the SPX illustrating and highlighting the Regime Change Cycle and this year's mid-regime change cycle significance at DOWPIVOTS...
http://bit.ly/17YUwZe
Or search
CHART: SPX 20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC WITH PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS AND COORDINATE FORECAST ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED: TODAY'S UPDATE
This particular year in the cycle often does surprise to the upside (as we leave the deflationary cycle), and does so especially from its FALL SEASON, and often well into the following year... focus on the price echovectors from 4/14/97 to 4/18/2005 to 4/19/2013 (blue dotted)... and their continuity and continuance.
Some analysts believe we may be looking a bit overbought in the stock market at current levels short-term, and they may be right.