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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
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  • Bull/Bear War Victory Line....

    ....Place your bets....

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: The author is long TZA.

    Tags: IWM
    Nov 25 5:49 PM | Link | Comment!
  • THE TOP IS IN....

    The first chart below shows the short term indicators on a new sell, while the S&P500 closed EXACTLY at resistance of the upper trend line of an expanding triangle today. That should mark the end of the rally, with an expected drop to test the lower trend line of the expanding triangle - way down there - likely on deck next.

    With all the talk about seasonals, and with the 1929 pattern highlighting the last week of November as the crash week, the bulls appear to be on the cusp of having their investment world turned upside down in what the history books will likely label the Thanksgiving crash.

    (click to enlarge)
    The next chart shows the S&P500 remaining on a green circle buy after bouncing off a test of the slower moving trend average (purple line,) though struggling at resistance of a triple top similar to what happened in 2007 pre bear market, and 2011 pre-crash.

    Note the red lines of the prior breakout and major uptrend line are in place to suck prices into those support areas once the crash gates open.

    The difference between the third red arrow and the question marks is in 2007 investor sentiment crossed above the overly bullish extreme line, while in 2011 - and currently - investor sentiment failed to make it all the way back to fully invested before the third and final rally of the topping process exhausted itself.

    (click to enlarge)
    The VIX cycle turned negative yesterday, and is slated to remain negative till December 24, so we are not only having bear for Thanksgiving, the stock market bottom is not expected to land till Christmas - which, of course, is very similar to the 1929 comparison projection.

    A gap down open tomorrow post jobs report, on the backs of weak action in Europe now the ECB have once again proven to be all talk and no action re QE, that takes out the uptrend line off the October 16 lows shown in the 1929 comparison chart, would be the perfect start to the bear slide ahead of us, and exactly my expectation.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    (click to enlarge)
    -Kevin

    Disclosure: The author is long QID, TZA, TVIX.

    Tags: QID, TZA, TVIX
    Nov 06 6:40 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Time To Raise Cash...

    Both the short term indicators (chart below,) and investor sentiment indicator (chart not shown) triggered new sells yesterday, signalling it is time to lock in profits on longs and raise cash to cut stock market exposure in 1/2.

    The trend remains up, so too early to head for the hills or go short, though we have everything in place for something bad to land out of the blue, so caution is warranted till the short term indicators reach the buy position again.

    Note the recent buy in early August (green circle/arrow,) and note the twin sells from the upper indicators (yellow circle/arrow.)

    Wait for the next green circle buy before reentering long positions, though don't be surprised if we are in outright sell mode by that time, in which case remove all longs and trade short when the trend turns negative for real.

    I expect the trading action for the remainder of the year to be spectacular, though too early to tell if it is a 1999 or 1987 repeat we face.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: The author is long QQQ.

    Tags: QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM
    Sep 05 10:57 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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