Seeking Alpha

Kevin Wilde's  Instablog

Kevin Wilde
Send Message
Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
My company:
AlphaKing.com
View Kevin Wilde's Instablogs on:
  • Gearing Up For The Next Stock Market Crash

    The big money is expected to be made when all three elements of my triple combination, double hedged strategy point in the same direction, something they have not done since the October swoon of last year. The stock market is expected to churn sideways when my three elements conflict, which has been the case since the rally post October bottom.

    My hedging indicator has turned negative - top of first chart below - thus I replaced TNA with TZA for the hedging side of the portfolio.

    That leaves the lone bull the stock market trend, which needs another week of weakness to trigger a sell. Once that happens, all three elements will point in the same direction, and we will be facing the first real profit opportunity of 2015, albeit on the bearish side.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    (click to enlarge)

    The economic indicators continue to weaken - top of next chart - despite modest stimulus from the FED, and it will be very interesting to see how things look next week after the ISM and ISM unemployment lines are updated.

    The key in this chart from a technical perspective is the relationship between the S&P500 and slower and faster moving trend average lines. Note how red arrow sells - due to excessive investor optimism - result in the S&P500 testing the faster moving yellow line. If that fails then the S&P500 quickly drops to test the slower moving purple line. If that fails to hold, we have the set-up for the start of a bear market.

    The S&P500 is currently sitting smack on the yellow line, deciding if it wants to go to the purple line, with what happens there likely to confirm either the start of the next Great Bear phase, or the next great buy the dip opportunity.

    Overall, everything but the trend says a hard reversal is in progress, thus conservatively invested long while hedged with TZA and TVIX is the optimal trade.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: QQQ, TZA, TVIX
    Mar 27 11:45 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Bull/Bear War Victory Line....

    ....Place your bets....

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: IWM
    Nov 25 5:49 PM | Link | Comment!
  • THE TOP IS IN....

    The first chart below shows the short term indicators on a new sell, while the S&P500 closed EXACTLY at resistance of the upper trend line of an expanding triangle today. That should mark the end of the rally, with an expected drop to test the lower trend line of the expanding triangle - way down there - likely on deck next.

    With all the talk about seasonals, and with the 1929 pattern highlighting the last week of November as the crash week, the bulls appear to be on the cusp of having their investment world turned upside down in what the history books will likely label the Thanksgiving crash.

    (click to enlarge)
    The next chart shows the S&P500 remaining on a green circle buy after bouncing off a test of the slower moving trend average (purple line,) though struggling at resistance of a triple top similar to what happened in 2007 pre bear market, and 2011 pre-crash.

    Note the red lines of the prior breakout and major uptrend line are in place to suck prices into those support areas once the crash gates open.

    The difference between the third red arrow and the question marks is in 2007 investor sentiment crossed above the overly bullish extreme line, while in 2011 - and currently - investor sentiment failed to make it all the way back to fully invested before the third and final rally of the topping process exhausted itself.

    (click to enlarge)
    The VIX cycle turned negative yesterday, and is slated to remain negative till December 24, so we are not only having bear for Thanksgiving, the stock market bottom is not expected to land till Christmas - which, of course, is very similar to the 1929 comparison projection.

    A gap down open tomorrow post jobs report, on the backs of weak action in Europe now the ECB have once again proven to be all talk and no action re QE, that takes out the uptrend line off the October 16 lows shown in the 1929 comparison chart, would be the perfect start to the bear slide ahead of us, and exactly my expectation.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    (click to enlarge)
    -Kevin

    Tags: QID, TZA, TVIX
    Nov 06 6:40 PM | Link | 1 Comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.